Starting Rotation 4.16

Starting Rotation 4.16

It is a monster baseball slate tonight with 28 teams in action, so there are plenty of pitching options tonight! The biggest question is how many are solid options that we want to utilize. There are plenty of big names to choose from but they may not be the best options on the table so let’s dig into Starting Rotation 4.16! 

Starting Rotation 4.16 – Cash Targets 

Note – Once again, I’m not going to dig too deeply into Jacob deGrom. The weather in Colorado is calling for snow during the game so I’m not sure if it gets played at all and I doubt that deGrom would be popular at all. If the game is clear, I’d not hesitate at all to pitch him. We already saw Trevor Bauer record 10 strikeouts in Coors. deGrom at potentially low ownership would be fascinating and I’m hoping the game plays. Colorado whiffs about 21.1% at home against RHP so far in 161 plate appearances. 

Max Scherzer ($10,400 DK/$10,400 FD)

Truth be told, I’m not sure what to do with Scherzer based on his two starts. His velocity is down across the board and teams are getting the barrel to the ball at a 20.7% rate. For context, Scherzer has never had a barrel rate over 8.4% in his career and his hard-hit rate has followed at 44.8%. When it’s coupled with a 62.1% fly-ball rate, it’s not hard to see why the HR/9 is spiked at 3.00. That isn’t to say Scherzer is a trash pitcher now, but his K rate has been at about 31% since the start of last year. The FIP of 5.39 isn’t exactly comforting either although the FIP is 3.65. He just may not be as dominant as we’ve been spoiled to see for many years with so many miles on that arm. Also, it’s not like he still doesn’t have some evil pitches –

Arizona also isn’t striking out a ton so far at 23.8% but they are also hitting under .220 as a team. I believe there’s an upside to be had if Scherzer’s fastball can survive. He’s only given up a .125 average but the xSLG is .798 and the xWOBA is .434. The whiff rate is down to 23.1% which is 5% lower than last year as well. Also concerning is the put-away rate from 2020 was 23.5% and this year is 11.8%. If the velocity comes back he could go Vintage Scherzer in a heartbeat. Assuming he’s the chalk, I’m in without question and we can evaluate after this start with how he looks. 

Anthony DeSclafani ($8,100 DK/$8,200 FD) 

Do I totally buy into DeSclafani after just two starts? Not exactly, but this is a good spot to keep some positive momentum going. Miami is in the bottom-five in park factor so far this season and the Marlins offense can be had. They are ninth in K rate to RHP at 26.5% and 22nd in wOBA so far this year. DeSclafani is using relatively the same pitch mix as last year but the biggest change is the curve at a 5% higher rate. Seven of his 12 strikeouts have come off that particular pitch and it’s generated a 47.1% whiff rate. He hasn’t been throwing it a ton to RHH and there are six projected for Miami’s lineup. Even still the swinging strike rate jumping from 9.6% to 14.4% is eye-opening and the CSW is up to 26.1%. If you ever wanted to understand why hitters swing at curves, check this out –

DeSclafani’s righty splits are being dragged down a touch by his walk rate over 13% to that side. Still, the OBP is only .318 which is not that bad for how high that walk rate is. The 42.9% fly-ball rate to that side of the plate should be muted by the park and he is still whiffing the righties at a 22.7% rate. He obviously won’t hold a 0.82 ERA but the xFIP is 3.46 and the FIP is 2.05. With the Marlins ranking in the bottom half of the league against the two main pitches and the curve being a great K pitch, DeSclafani makes plenty of sense tonight. 

Yusei Kikuchi ($7,200 DK/$8,800 FD)

The pitch data looks terrifying and we almost always go with Astros hitters against lefty pitching but that’s not the case tonight. Not only does Houston go out on the road but Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Jordan Alvarez, and Martin Maldonado are all out of the lineup. That’s a massive hit to the lineup and if Kikuchi can keep up his start to the season, he may cut through this lineup like a knife through butter. He’s been touching 97 MPH regularly with his fastball this year –

Kikuchi has a 32.7% K rate so far and his CSW has jumped to almost 32%. He’s throwing his cutter the most of any pitch and it’s ranked 10th among starters so far this season. The only remaining hitter that has a positive cutter rating is Kyle Tucker and he’s only sporting a .200 wOBA to lefties so far this season. The two scariest hitters left are Carlos Correa and Yuli Gurriel (who leads the league in fastball rating and has a .553 wOBA and .263 ISO. Hello one-off hitter) and that’s not enough to avoid Kikuchi. I’m not going to hold the last start against him all that much because the Twins are built to smack lefties. The Astros are as well…when they’re healthy. I’ll be very interested to see who the field flocks to on DK as their SP2 tonight. 

Honorable Mention – deGrom, Walker Beuhler

Starting Rotation 4.16 – GPP Targets

Steven Matz ($9,300 DK/$9,800 FD) 

I’m not in love with the salaries because I’m not sure Matz has the ceiling to go with it. Still, he’s been excellent so far this year and he even navigated the Angels lineup, which can hit lefties some nights (although not that night when I played him). I’ll go back to him here as his sinker has been his go-to pitch so far. It’s only allowed a .107 average, .285 xwOBA, and a .285 xSLG to this point with eight of the 13 strikeouts. Kansas City has a strong rating against fastballs, but they are very top-heavy. Whit Merrifield, Salvador Perez, and Michael A. Taylor are the only ones with a 1.0 rating or higher. The other great metric in Matz’s favor is his ground ball rate. 

If we’re not totally sold on the strikeout upside, we need ground outs and Matz is at a 55.2% rate so far. It just so happens that the leading ground ball team to lefty pitching are these Royals, which is fantastic news for Matz. They only whiff about 21% of the time. The biggest concern is likely the 19.4% K rate to RHH for Matz so far since the Royals are very righty-heavy in their lineup. It’s the main reason I won’t go there in cash but Matz has upside potential even if the path is a little less clear. 

JT Brubaker ($7,500 DK)

This might seem like an oddball pick at first glance but digging in, Brubaker looks like a great option. The Brewers are struggling badly offensively right now, ranking no higher than 22nd in average, OBP, OPS, slugging, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+. On top of that, the K rate is an even 25%. That’s already a nice checkmark for Brubaker. The CSW is respectable at 28.2% and the swinging strike rate is also solid at 10.9%. Brubaker has also kept the hard contact down at 24% while the Brewers sit 28th in that category. His slider is the key, as it has six of his 10 strikeouts and a 32% whiff rate. What is really encouraging is the splits because he has owned lefties thus far. 

That side of the plate is hitting for a .167 average, .227 wOBA, and a 2.95 FIP. The K rate is stagnant at 23.8% for each side and the Brewers projected lineup has five lefties with the pitcher spot on top of it. Of those lefties, Christian Yelich has a 0.7 rating and Omar Narvaez has a 0.2 rating against the slider. Every other lefty is in the negatives in FanGraphs rating. He’s averaging a little over 16 fantasy points despite only pitching four and 5.1 innings in each start. If he can go a little deeper than 82 or 72 pitches, he could be a very cheap 20 DK points. It could help his cause to go deep into the game since the Pirates only got 3.1 innings out of their starter yesterday. I would only use him as an SP2 on DK and skip him on FD. 

Honorable Mention – Adrian Houser, Mike Foltynewicz in MME formats 

Gas Can of the Slate – If it plays, the Mets are in Coors Field against a pitcher who has given up a .346 wOBA to LHH over his career and only strikes them out 14% of the time. New York has Brandon Nimmo, Michael Conforto, and Jeff McNeil at $4,200 or less on DK. Add in Francisco Lindor or Pete Alonso and away you go. 

Let’s talk about a less obvious spot. Well, it’s probably still fairly obvious but I digress. The Rangers are drawing one of the weakest pitchers on the slate in Baltimore’s Jorge Lopez. He’s allowing a barrel rate over 11% and a hard hit rate over 44%, to go along with a 3.12 HR/9. Lopez also is getting crushed by lefties with a .300 average, 1.062 OPS, .459 wOBA, and a 7.7% K rate. Friends, if you’re not going to miss Joey Gallo’s bat you’re going to have a hard time. There should be at least 4-5 lefties in the lineup and in honesty, the .388 wOBA to righties isn’t anything to write home about for Lopez either. 

Gallo, Nate Lowe, Jose Trevino, and Isiah Kiner-Falefa are all over a .335 wOBA and Gallo is super fascinating. This is a hitter with a career .282 ISO against righty pitching and so far this season, he’s at .000. That’s not a typo. I’m going to go out on a limb and say that won’t stick forever. Even Adolis Garcia is well in play, as he’s been hitting clean-up and he’s just $2,700. I’ll make a home run call early and say Gallo leaves the yard tonight as a centerpiece to a Texas stack.

Starting Rotation 4.16 Betting Section 

Free Bet 

Record – 9-8

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 4.16 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!