Adam Strangis Starting Rotation 4.11
The good news is we have a 10 game slate on this wonderful Sunday afternoon! The bad news is the pitching leaves an awful lot to be desired. There’s not a single ace at our disposal and some pitchers are priced crazy high for their potential. With 10 games, we’re going to keep a small player pool in the Starting Rotation 4.11 to narrow our focus to find the green screens!
Starting Rotation 4.11 – Cash Picks
Marcus Stroman ($9,100 DK/$9,400 FD)
I hope Mr. Stroman enjoys being in the cash picks because he’s not a pitcher that I turn to very often. If we just played pitchers for swag, Stroman would be a top play across all formats.
Like I mentioned, this slate is tough. Typically, Stroman is not a pitcher that has a lot of upside especially when he’s over $9,000. In the course of his career, Stroman has a K rate of just 19.5% but does counter that with a 58.8% ground ball rate. The CSW in his first start was dead in line with his career numbers as well at 27.1% so there’s not likely new upside for strikeouts after a year away.
When we do look at Stroman, I prefer to go after a righty-heavy lineup and the Marlins fit that bill with only two projected lefties in their main eight spots. The wOBA is about equal to each side of the plate at about .301 but the K rate goes up to 20.4% to righty hitters. Miami does have the fifth-lowest ground ball rate as a team so far but they also are striking out 23.5% of the time and hitting under .200. This is about as good of a spot that Stroman can have, even if the price is still gross.
Trevor Williams ($8,300 DK/$8,000 FD)
Another starter that is mostly a stranger to cash picks is ex-Bucco Trevor Williams. The ex-Bucco part seems to be increasingly important anymore. Let’s take a look at the first eight starts for former Pirates starters –
So that seems bad if you’re a Pirates fan. Williams was outstanding in his first start for the Cubs and actually displayed some strikeout upside. When we’re early on in a season, it can be very difficult to know if a player is for real or if it’s just a small sample size. I’m more prone to buy in if there’s a definite change for the player and Williams checks that box with a brand new pitch mix.
Williams dialed back the four-seam usage and relied more heavily on the change and curveball. The only hits he allowed were off the four-seam and the sinker, while the curve and change gave up no base hits and two strikeouts. The Pirates are whiffing 25% of the time so far and I won’t say I totally trust Williams, but the 36.5% CSW was eye-popping from him. On this slate, he comes in as a “safe-ish” option.
Honorable Mention – The GPP section will be slightly bigger and we can maybe bump a player into cash, based on projected ownership.
Starting Rotation 4.11 – GPP Picks
Jordan Montgomery ($9,900 DK/$8,500 FD)
Montgomery is closest to cash but I’ll be the first one to say that I have a mental block with this price. His last 48 IP over 2019-20 produced an ERA well over 5.00 but the xFIP was under 3.65. Are we seeing a pitcher who was on the wrong end of some bad luck throughout 50 innings correct? Was it just one good start? These are fair questions that we don’t have strong answers to yet. You can say the same thing about Williams but at least his matchup is better.
Tampa is a mixed bag against lefties. They whiff over 27% of the time, which is certainly appealing. They are also right about the top 12 in wOBA, ISO, OBP, wRC+, and OPS. Montgomery changed his pitch mix as well, which is notable. The cutter was his least-used pitch last year but he leaned on it in this first start. That and the sinker allowed the lowest ISO in 2020 so leaning into the cutter could really work out. His change and his curve were his two pitches that got the most strikeouts with a combined 35 out of 55. This could be his most beneficial pitch mix and the Rays are below average against all three but I won’t pretend that he’s set in stone. This start could go either way in my eyes.
JT Brubaker ($7,800 DK/$6,200 FD)
Cubs Ranks vs Pitch Types – SL – 24th FB – 25th CH – 7th
Now, the Pirates’ pitching isn’t typically something we like but Brubaker has a little bit of potential here. He’s only pitched 51.1 innings in the big leagues but there are some positive metrics to like. The K rate is right at 24%, the ground ball rate is 47.6% and the hard-hit rate is under 29%. These are all good signs that could hint at something that could turn into a great start. The slider is of particular interest. Of all starting pitchers last year that logged 30 IP, Brubaker’s slider was 26th across baseball. That was in his first taste of major league action.
Three Cubs boasted a FanGraphs rating over 1.0 against the slider in 2020 and Ian Happ, Anthony Rizzo, and Jason Heyward could cause issues at the plate for Brubaker. Still, Brubaker whiffed 24 of his 48 strikeouts with the slider last season. It was also his second-best ISO allowed pitch at .148. The Cubs as a team have been so bad to start the year that it’s at least worth a shot. They are dead last in average and OBP while they rank no better than 25th in any major offensive category we value. On top of that, the K rate is the fourth-highest against RHP. It’s risky, but there is a ceiling here after seeing Brubaker score 14.8 DK points in four innings versus the Reds in the first start.
Chris Flexen ($6,800 DK/$7,000 FD)
This is going to be the test of strikeouts are king because there’s plenty of metrics that would lead us towards the Twins today. First off, the pitch data skew in their favor as they are top-eight against three of four pitches. Minnesota is also top 10 in all of the major offensive categories so why are we even looking at Flexen? For all the Twins do very well, they are striking out at the fifth-highest rate against righty pitching thus far.
The first start since 2019 for Flexen in America was pretty interesting as well. His pitch mix was significantly different as he used the four-seam almost 60% of the time in 2019. He jumped his cutter usage to almost a third of the time and he struck out three hitters while giving up just one hit. Byron Buxton is the only Twins hitter with a FanGraphs rating over 0.1 so far this season which is intriguing. Getting into shape has helped Flexen a lot and this is going to be a fun test. This is not a single entry play but I still want some exposure if Flexen continues to put it together.
Honorable Mention – Both Matt Shoemaker and Daniel Ponce de Leon have some appeal but I don’t feel strongly about either. Shoemaker especially had some concerning metrics with fly ball rate, CSW, and a small dip in velocity.
Gas Can of the Slate – Tanner Roark is pitching for the Blue Jays today which means we need some Angels in the lineup. Since the start of last season, Roark has displayed a 6.80 ERA or higher along with an xFIP of a least 5.84. The K rate is under 19%, the hard-hit rate is at least 39%, and the fly ball rate has spiked over 45%. He threw the fastball and slider about 58% of the time in the first start and they both had an xwOBA over .720.
Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, and Jared Walsh all have wOBA’s over .440 so far against righty pitching with ISO’s of at least .450. Sure, those numbers have to come down some but it may not happen today. If that wasn’t enough, guess which three hitters are the best fastball/slider hitters on the team? I think the three main players in this stack are pretty clear.
Secondary Players – Anthony Rendon, David Fletcher, Max Stassi
Starting Rotation 4.11 Betting Section
Free Bet
Record – 7-4
Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 4.11 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
