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Shriners: Initial Picks
We finally have a legitimate field of stars here at the Shriners and it appears that we have value in all pricing tiers. I have isolated my Initial Picks, but I can assure you we will have many more on the Livestream TONIGHT at 8:00 and in Discord up until Thursday morning. Please tune in tonight and good luck this week. Here are is the Shriners: Initial Picks.
Bryson DeChambeau (11800) – There’s no such thing as a lock button guy in golf, but this is pretty close. His game fits this course quite well, he’s been on fire lately and he’s got a great track record at this course. His price is the only downside, but you’re going to want plenty of shares. Bryson will likely be owned at over 20% this week so clearly his price tag is not dissuading players from selecting him. A lock in cash, but if you want to fade him in a big GPP, I have no issue with it.
Tony Finau (10200) – Yes, I passed right over the guy (Patrick Cantlay) who has finished 2nd, 2nd and 1st his last three years at this event, but I’m going to pivot to Finau who also comes in great form and has a solid track record at this event (including a Top 10 last year). I’m assuming the expensive salary will keep his ownership at 15% or below.
Matthew Wolff (9600) – Had a top 20 finish last year in his first time at the Shriner’s. That’s not terribly impressive but Wolff’s game suits this course very well and he’s been on fire as of late (Top 5 finishes in his last two majors). Wolff is finally being priced up with Morikawa and for good reason. Interestingly, it looks like Wolff’s ownership will be higher than Morikawa by a significant margin (tracking at 22% versus 15% as of now).
Sergio Garcia (9100) – Not a huge fan of selecting the winner from the week prior, but this seems like a reasonable price for a guy that is great T2G and who may have figured out some of his putting issues last week. Sergio’s projected ownership looks to be tracking at less than 7% and he is therefore a nice GPP pivot from many of the other golfers in this range.
Cam Davis (8200) – A long hitter who can get hot at any moment, as evidenced by last week’s Round 3 of nine under (7 birdies and 1 eagle including 5 birdies in a row). Davis usually fizzles on Sundays but if he gets to Sunday, he’s likely to pay off his price tag. Be careful in GPP’s with Davis as he is tracking at approximately 25% ownership which is enormous in this range. You can play him in GPP’s, just be mindful of the chalk and be different elsewhere. A great cash play.
Joaquin Neimann (8100) – The ball striking metrics are there for Joaquin, but he is certainly a hit or miss prospect this week. Going with the upside that he flashed at the BMW (3rd place) and he remains in relatively good form with a 23rd at the U.S. Open. At less than 10% projected ownership, he’s a nice GPP pivot from Cam Davis (Ancer is another good pivot in the 8k range as his ownership is below 10% as of now).
Denny McCarthy (7600) – Finished 6th last week and has two Top 15’s in his last two attempts at the Shriners. His ball striking metrics have been very good as of late and he is a great putter. Good value at the price.
Kristoffer Ventura (7100) – His recent strokes gained metrics jump off the page. Outside of some somewhat shaky APP play, he’s been knocking the metrics out of the park. He’s also finished Top 8 in two out of his last three tournaments. Finished 18th here last year.
Henrik Norlander (6900) – An absolute boom or bust play. He has been bad lately, but finally emerged from the abyss last week with a 4th place at Sanderson. We saw the upside with Norlander right after the re-start so we know he has it in him.
Tyler Duncan (6700) – Duncan has been a bit erratic lately with the driver and the putter but his APP game is fantastic. The rough shouldn’t be too penal here so maybe his APP game bails him out and maybe he finds the putter. When you get into the 6k range you need to play the ‘maybe’ card from time to time, and I’m happy to do that with Duncan.
Sepp Straka (6500) – Coming off a missed cut last week, but here we have a golfer that typically gains OTT and on APP and doesn’t have a terrible putter. Plenty of boom upside with Straka.
JB Holmes (6400) – On absolutely nobody’s radar but he did make the cut last week and unfortunately had a horrific Sunday. I’m willing to lean a bit on pre-injury pedigree for Holmes with the knowledge that I’m dipping into a dangerous area in the 6k range.
Don’t forget to join us TONIGHT at 8:00 for the Win Daily PGA Livestream with Michael Rasile, Joel Schrek and myself. Don’t forget to also subscribe to the Win Daily Podcast and the Win Daily YouTube channel. See you tonight!
