Sia 
It feels like the break took way too long, but golf season is back and I couldn’t be happier to be a part of this Win Daily Team. Join us Tuesday night (tonight!) at 8:00 EST for the PGA Livestream (You can watch on Twitter or our YouTube channel) and stay tuned for the numerous articles and Discord banter between now and tee time. This course doesn’t present much by way of challenges as fairways are very easy to hit and so are the greens. With that said, it does help to be long OTT, and as always, APP is an important factor (particularly the short iron game). Also, the Bermuda greens are quite large, and sometimes undulating here, so this may be a tournament to put a little extra emphasis on putting. This is a 42 person field and a no-cut event. See everyone tonight on the Livestream. Let’s get started with my Sentry Tournament of Champions: Initial Picks.
Dustin Johnson (11000) – I was a bit hesitant to include DJ because he is expensive and we’re not 100% sure he’s locked in post-Masters. Over his last four efforts on this course he’s never finished worse than 7th (and he won it in 2018). He’s not my favorite play, but he’s not a fade either.
Justin Thomas (10700) – Speaking of course history, JT has won here twice in the last four years and his game is perfect for this course as he can go long off the tee and kill it with his short irons. His recent form has also been pretty impeccable with a 12th at Mayakoba, 4th at The Masters, 2nd at the Zozo and 12th at the CJ Cup. If choosing between DJ or JT, I choose JT (and so will most others as JT is tracking at close to 30% while DJ is around 25%. More on ownership during Tuesday night’s Livestream and Steven’s Wednesday ownership article).
Webb Simpson (9400) – This one is tricky because he’s not the best course fit, given that he’s a relatively short hitter, but that doesn’t preclude him from winning this thing. Webb is accurate, great with irons and can get hot with the putter (putting may be key here). Webb’s recent form isn’t great but it’s decent. I think the break may have been good timing for him and I like him at what I expect to be relatively low ownership.
Collin Morikawa (8800) – Speaking of low ownership, Morikawa is enjoying some of that because his recent play hasn’t been great. But he’s already won plenty on the PGA Tour and he’s typically great OTT and on APP. This is a play on ownership percentage and price. I’m willing to buy-low on a great ball striker who has already proven he can win.
Cameron Smith (8400) – Mr. Smith paid huge dividends for me and most of the Win Daily family during the Masters and I think he’s a guy that is going to really plant himself on the map this year. With that said, he’s not necessarily a great course fit and he’s only played here once in the last 5 years and that was a modest 17th place finish. Frankly, I don’t really care what Cam Smith did 3 years ago here, I’m trying to get in early on him.
Joaquin Niemann (8300) – This is a no-cut event and for me that means take the streaky players (see Ryan Palmer below). Niemann can be inconsistent but that won’t cost you a missed cut this week and I think he has the talent to contend at the top if he can string together some of those aforementioned streaks. His recent form has been average and perhaps that’s why his pricetag is so low, but he did finish 5th here last year.
Carlos Ortiz (7100) – Doesn’t grade out particularly well OTT or on APP but he is gaining in those categories (barely), but his recent form has been solid with an 8th at Mayakoba and an outright win in Houston. I like the upside here.
Ryan Palmer (7000) – Did someone say upside? I’m biased because I may be the actual President of the Ryan Palmer fan club, and when it comes to no-cut events, he’s a great option. Yes, Palmer can blow up here or there, but he can put together great streaks, and frankly, his price here is a little disrespectful.
Andrew Landry (6300) – We’re officially in the “take some chances” range here and last year I saw Andrew Landry put some solid rounds together. Worth noting that his recent form is quite checkered with plenty of MC’s, but his last tournament was a 4th place finish at the RSM.
Secret Weapon – A field of 42 doesn’t really give much room for a 6k/less than 5% owned play so the first SW will be next week. We will talk plenty about this 6k range in Discord though so stay tuned.
Thanks for checking out my Sentry Tournament of Champions: Initial Picks. See everyone tonight on the Livestream and don’t forget to subscribe to the podcast. Welcome back!
