Sentry Tournament of Champions: Initial Picks

Welcome back golf fans. This week the PGA Tour travels to beautiful Maui, Hawaii for the first event of the calendar year. The Sentry Tournament of Champions (TOC) is played at The Plantation Course at Kapalua. It’s the only par 73 PGA course on tour, and measures out around 7596 yard (which also makes it the longest). Don’t let the yardage fool you as Kapalua is by all standards a “resort” course designed for vacationers to enjoy themselves. There are multiple changes in elevation, extremely wide fairways, and gigantic Bermuda greens. The warm coastal winds, and 93 bunkers are its only defense. This invite-only event consists of the 40 PGA winners from the last calendar year (Xander Schauffele did not win a PGA event last season, but is here on a special exemption for winning gold at the Tokyo Olympics).  As of now we are down to 38 players as Rory opted out and Cam Champ is out with Covid.  Kapalua is a true birdie fest which has produced minimum scores of -20 for each of the previous 7 years except one (which had serious wind and weather issues which are not expected this year).

I want to mention a few quick tidbits to think about while selecting your lineups: 12 of the last 13 Sentry TOC winners have played in December of the previous year and 5 of the last 7 champions have won on their second trip here. However, players making their debut here haven’t won since Daniel Chopra in 2008. I believe that both course history and recent form are a major factor to consider at Kapalua.

Key Metrics (in order)

These fairways average almost 60 yards wide so accuracy off the tee is of minimal importance. This is also a factor when considering golfers that specialize in gaining strokes on the field with their accuracy (i.e. Morikawa, Ancer). Distance is ALWAYS a key in golf, but previous winners have shown it’s not a necessity here. This has me leaving SG: OTT (off the tee) out of my model altogether.

SG: APP (approach)

Birdie or Better Gained

SG: Par 5

SG: P (putting, on Bermuda)

Putting: 10-15 feet

Scrambling

Initial Picks

Justin Thomas ($10,600) – The only multiple winner here (with a couple 3rds as well), coming in HOT with something to prove this year. Always starts the year well and results have shown since making the switch to ‘Bones’ on the bag.

Patrick Cantlay ($9700) – Skeptical as we haven’t seen him in a while. The reigning Fed-Ex Champion is just priced too low here IMO.

Xander Schauffele ($9500) – Similar to JT, he’s a boss at no-cut events. Another impeccable record here with something to prove.

Jordan Speith ($8900) – My favorite play on the board. Got on the podium in 3 of 4 appearances (4^th was a 9^th). Risky, but he became a new Dad in the fall (I’ll let it slide). The craftiest player I know around the greens. Time to get back to work at a course he loves.

Daniel Berger ($8400) – He’s just always in the top 10. Perfect lineup filler at this price.

Cameron Smith ($8300) – Like Jordan, great around and on the greens. OTT woes won’t come into play here. Big things are coming this year for Cam (2^nd trip narrative).

Sungjae Im ($8200) – Seems to be coming back into the form we all grew to love.  2^nd Trip Narrative in play after finishing T5 with all four rounds in the 60’s last year.

Patrick Reed ($7900) – Think he’s carrying a BIG CHIP on his shoulders after the Ryder Cup snub. Stats are never there, but history? Win in ‘15, 2^nd in ‘16, 6^th in ‘17, playoff in ‘20.  Expecting low ownership for my GPP guy.

Others If You Must: Talor Gooch ($7600), Mark Leishman ($7500), Max Homa ($6700), Seamus Power ($6600), Phil Mickelson ($6500)

Punt Play: K. H. Lee ($6000)

WinDaily has 3 other tools coming at you later this week to help with your process of building winning Draftkings lineups. Check out our Tuesday night show here with Sia, Joel, and Spencer (or on Apple podcasts or the win daily video hub). Spencer also releases an article later in the week. Check back on Wednesday evening to catch Steven’s ownership article to help you nail down those final low-owned guys that’ll get you that big GPP win. As always, make sure to stop into the WinDaily Discord room to ask questions from our stellar PGA team or just compare notes with some of the other members of our family. If you haven’t already, follow WinDailySports on YouTube and via Apple podcasts to check out all the content at WinDailySports.com. We’ve been hitting big with our NFL, NBA, and NHL content and you’re going to want to be part of that. Hope you enjoyed this article.

– Isaiah