Steven Polardi 
Sentry Final Ownership Projections
Hello Everyone, it’s almost time for the Sentry Champions Tourney and we have the projections as well as news and notes to help with your roster construction. So here are our Sentry Final Ownership Projections.
Allegedly Patrick “Sharps “ Scott, one of our writers, was heading over to Hawaii to get Collin Morikawa’s signature on a life sized poster for his ceiling in his bedroom. (Not sure how the wife feels about that.) His 60 horsepower motor conked out on his pontoon boat, luckily one of Greenpeace’s monster Rainbow Warrior ships thought it was a big piece of floating plastic, so he’s getting a free tow to Hawaii! Collin Morikawa is allegedly so happy that he’s checking all the restraining orders to make sure their dates are still in effect.
To those of you expecting “Super” Sia and his slayer secret weapon, do not worry about the pick being held off for a week, this is just a 42 man field with no cut, so it’s almost guaranteed their will be very few under 5% owned. I applaud the integrity of keeping it real and making the picks when it really counts, and Sia will have lots of info on the 6-7 K range to help round out your roster construction, and I have a few notes to assist with that as well.
Mackenzie Hughes leads in shots gained putting on Bermuda at 1.79 strokes per round. Xander stated earlier today, after his bout with COVID,” I’m in a WEIRD place physically. I tried to walk a few holes today, and I’m just not in that great a shape right now.” Kudos to Sia for bringing that up in the Livestream show last night. Adam Scott is using an arm lock putter that he used here several years ago, so no, he has not yet moved to an actual short stick. Jon Rahm is using different equipment so that can always bring variables into the equation. (Think Gary Woodland.)
This is a seaside course, the winds are expected to be up to 16 MPH, the trade winds at this time of year could bump that up a bit. The 4 lower priced golfers who play better in the wind (as far as shaping their shot) are Billy Horschel, Martin Laird, and Victor Hovland. Andrew Landry is the the 4th, for you golfers who like to play 1st round leader props, I think Landry and his price are a good play for the first round leader. In the last few years no one in the top ten has been a first round leader, so why not take a shot on a great return at decent actual odds.
This is a mini field, powerful, but only 42 golfers. There are ways to become different so you don’t share your winnings with 800 strangers. In single entry or 3 Max you should leave at least 300 on the table, in large GPPs leave at least 500 OR MORE on the table if you can while getting the golfers you want. If you plan on using Griffin, Palmer, or Hughes as your last man, you must leave salary money, they will be the MOST popular last team player picks. They would have to bring 4X value to overcome their popularity from the start, that’s a lot to ask for someone in their price range, although not impossible.
Let’s get to the Sentry Final Ownership Projections for the players. There is a close pool of players at the top, including the three I just mentioned above.
Hideki Matsuyama has been rocketing up and now sits at 23.4%, we feel this is based on his value worth, and his recent play before the Christmas break. Justin Thomas is close behind at 22.5%, Xander’s physical issues haven’t hit the all the golf pundits yet, we like that, he is at 21.9%. Tony Finau is at 21.55%, he plays well here, not well enough for me at that ownership, Patrick Reed is 21.4%, and has a great history here, Ryan Palmer and Lanto Griffin, who I mentioned above as highly owned last picks, are both at 20.9%, that’s a higher % than Dustin Johnson, who is a surprising 20.4%, there is some talk of him bringing the misses and the kids and making it a vacation station instead of work, I’ll be ok with DJ being the 8th in ownership % of the top group and say thanks.
Remember the heavy chalk at the lower salary as I mentioned above. Jon Rahm is close behind DJ at 20.3%, he is playing on new equipment. Cameron Smith is a surprising 19.6%, I really like him, but will now be underweight on him at that ownership % instead of overweight where I was. Mackenzie Hughes, the third heavily owned, lower salaried player is 19.3%, wow. Harris English is 18.7% and was a sneaky play, not so sneaky with that 18+%. Joaquin Niemann is 18%, I like him. Daniel Berger is 17.1%, Victor Hovland is 16.9%, Bryson DeChambeau is 16.77% and is an actual value + at that ownership.
Carlos Ortiz is 15.5%, Abraham Ancer and Kevin Na are 15.4%, Jason Kokrak is 15.3%, Webb Simpson has dropped a bit to 15.1%, Cameron Champ is 14%, Adam Scott is 13.6% and a value based on ownership. Sungjae IM is 13.5%, Collin Morikawa, who may be looking over his shoulder for Patrick “Sharps” Scott, one of our writers, is 12.9% and also a value vs ownership. Scottie Scheffler is 12.7%, Patrick Cantlay is 12.6%, Billy Horschel is 11.8%, Martin Laird is 11.3 %, seriously?
Kevin Kisner is 11%, Marc Leishman is 10.8%, I won’t have a single lineup with him in it. Sebastian Munoz is 10.4%, Sergio Garcia is 9.8%, Brendan Todd is 9.7%, Stewart Cink and Robert Streb are 9.3%, I will have a sprinkling of Streb, he is streaky, and has had good results up to the Christmas break, he is a risky play.
Brian Gay is 8.1%, Richy Werenski is 7.6%, Andrew Landry is 5.7%, Nick Taylor is 4.6%, Hudson Swafford is 3.5%, and Michael Thomas brings the gear from the rear at 1.3%, he is a value play as well, I would be very cautious with him.
As I mentioned above, and in the projections, there are lower priced players with much lower odds to win that are heavy chalk due to the field and based on roster construction, I would pivot to someone else if at all possible, or if not, leave some salary on the table, do not use more than 1 of Palmer, Griffin and Hughes.
My top plays: both DJ and Bryson are ownership value +, for straight value I like Matsuyama, Morikawa, and Reed, both Cantlay and Simpson compare with Reed. I really like Harris English and Adam Scott. My lower end values are Garcia, Horschel and Champ. I liked Hughes until his % became absurd.
I appreciate all you members who review this article, please review more articles at WinDailySports from Sia, Isaiah and Antonio, whose article is up as we speak. I will be in Discord after this article is published to answer any questions, help with roster construction, player on player analysis and metrics pertaining to this tournament.
As always, I hope to be with you, in the money on Sunday afternoon.
