Andrew Erickson Welcome to my preview video for the Super Bowl DFS game. I will be covering value and punt plays, favorite stacks, and my contrarian plays for the big game. Are you ready for some Super Bowl DFS action? All prices discussed are via DraftKings. I will also include some of my favorite prop bets! Check out the full article.
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It should come to no surprise that in games that the total exceeds 51 or more points Patrick Mahomes ($12,600) puts on an absolute clinic. Before the playoffs, in the divisional playoff game and championship game Mahomes scored (41 and 35 points respectively). He is clearly the best fantasy quarterback in the game but that is why he is the most expensive player.
Super Bowl DFS DraftKings
As for Jimmy Garoppolo ($8,000), he is the seventh-most expensive player in the game on DraftKings. The narrative here is that Garoppolo is entering this game very similar to how Ryan Tannehill was. Basically, the Titans were just relying on the run game and Tannehill had thrown for just 160 yards total on 31 passing attempts. In the championship game alone Tannehill went 21-31 for 209 yards and two touchdowns.
For defenses overall on this slate the Chiefs ($3,000) are the cheaper of the two on DraftKings with the 49ers ($3,600) coming in slightly higher. Both of these defenses can get after the quarterback in passing situations. The current over/under on sack totals in the game is 4.5 sacks. I like the over there.
Damien Williams ($9,800) is the third-most-expensive player on DraftKings. I tend to favor rostering pass-catching running backs in the captain spot due to their path to touchdowns. Williams has been getting all the carries and snaps in the Chiefs backfield since returning from injury so I like him a lot. He has nine touchdowns in five career playoff games. With the 49ers heavy zone scheme and a low percentage of blitzes Williams should see plenty of targets in the backfield. The 49ers have allowed the lowest ADOT this season to opposing quarterbacks (6.8).
Additionally, the only team that played more zone than the 49ers did this season were the Los Angeles Chargers, who the Chiefs played twice this season. In those games, the Kansas City running backs averaged 6.5 receptions with the lead back getting at least four receptions.
The 49ers have one of the best fullbacks in the NFL. The 49ers this season had a 54% success rate when running from 21-personnel averaging 5.4 yards per attempt. They also ran it 32% of the time (#1 in the NFL). The Kansas City defense versus that personnel grouping allowed a 51% success rate and 5.5 yards per carry. Kyle Juszczyk ($1,800) is sneaky on DraftKings at his price for Super Bowl DFS.
