Saturday Night Showdown Strategy: Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens

Wild Card Weekend is here!

I prefer a correlated lineup build that tells a compelling game story – a strategy that has proven to win more often than not. For a deeper dive into my general showdown rules, make sure to check out my “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article. It’s essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can impact each game’s approach.

Link To Strategy Article: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/

Note on Quarterbacks:
I tend to not write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end sections cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Running Back

• The Ravens allowed the 4^th least fantasy points to running backs in the NFL in the regular season (19.5)
• They gave up eight rushing and four receiving TDs
• They gave up the 11^th most receptions to the position

Jaylen Warren was the Steelers RB who succeeded in the first matchup against the Ravens. He got 12 carries while catching all five of his targets. He finished with 14.2 DK points. Najee Harris had nine carries and no receptions for only 4.2 DK points. 

With how good the Ravens are against the run I am not making either a priority, but Warren is the preferred option if you land on one. 

Tier 1: Jaylen Warren

Tier 2: Najee Harris

Punt: Cordarrelle Patterson 

Wide Receiver

• The Ravens allowed the 5^th most fantasy points the WR in the regular season (37.4 per game)
• They gave up 17 receiving touchdowns to wide receivers, two of which came from Russell Wilson

On paper, George Pickens has the best matchup. He is coming off a terrible game, but he has proven throughout the season that he will be Wilson’s preferred target. He should also be on the field for almost all offensive snaps. For a large portion of the game, he will be avoiding Marlon Humphry, who is the Raven’s best cover corner. Humprey should see Calvin Austin for around 60% of his routes. Austin is a big play-type receiver, but I wouldn’t expect that big play to come out of one of his slot routes. He is a fine punt option, but overall my least favorite starting Steelers receiver.

Van Jefferson is one of my favorite punts. He will play primarily on the right side of the field, which will be covered by Brandon Stephens. Stephens allowed the most production to wide receivers, via YPRC, in the regular season. Jefferson is only going to have a couple of opportunities so he will need a big play. 

Mike Williams and Ben Skowronek, in that order, are worth a shot in large-field GPPs. Williams played 23% of snaps last game, while Skowronek played 8%. 

Tier 1: George Pickens

Tier 2: Van Jefferson, Calvin Austin

Punt: Mike Williams

Ben Skowronek Tier: Ben Skowronek

Tight End

• The Ravens gave up 13.1 fantasy points per game to the position
• They allowed five receiving TDs

Pat Freiermuth was a much better, basically no-brainer play, last slate. Just because he had a good last game does not mean he will this game. The Ravens are better against the TE than wide receivers. That said, Freiermuth is someone you can feel comfortable with for his floor, but the upside seems limited in this matchup. 

Darnell Washington fell off in a big way, and MyCole Pruitt and Connor Heyward are the definition of a deep punt on a showdown slate. They are all prayers. 

Tier 1: Pat Freiermuth

Punts: Washington, Pruitt, Heyward

Baltimore Ravens 

Running Back

• The Steelers gave up 20.9 fantasy points to RBs in the regular season
• They allowed 12 rushing TDs and one receiving

I don’t fade Derrick Henry on showdown slates. I will have as many stacks as I can with both him and Lamar Jackson. On the remaining teams I make I will force one of the two. 

Justice Hill is a solid cheap option. He is a key, yet under-the-radar piece in the Ravens offense. With Zay Flowers ruled out, he may even be in a larger pass-catching role. 

Keaton Mitchell likely will not see the field unless Hill gets injured. 

Tier 1: Derrick Henry 

Tier 2: Justice Hill 

Punt: Keaton Mitchell, Patrick Ricard

Wide Receiver

• The Steelers allowed 26.7 fantasy points per game to the position
• They allowed 15 receiving TDs

Zay Flowers has been ruled out. Rashod Bateman will step into the WR1 role. This on one hand is good for Bateman’s outlook, but on the other hand, it is very bad as the Steelers will now key in on stopping him, having very little fear of being beaten by anyone else. 

Bateman will see a hefty amount of Joey Porter Jr. and Donte Jackson. Both of which are very good. Bateman makes sense on a showdown because of his salary and newfound opportunity alone, but that is it. I cannot make him a priority. 

Nelson Agholor was a healthy scratch last week and now he will get the majority of the slot routes against Cameron Sutton. Good lunch with that. 

Tylan Wallace stepped in and played 73% of snaps last week after Flowers went down. I hate the matchup for him but love his speed. He is a better play than Agholor. 

Devontez Walker is worth a shot in the Milly Maker but should be on the field the 4^th most out of the guys I mentioned above. Steven Sims is on the roster but hasn’t played a snap all season. 

Tier 1: Rashod Bateman

Tier 2: Tylan Wallace

Punts: Nelson Agholor, Devontez Walker

Tight End

• The Steelers gave up 14.4 fantasy points per game the position
• They allowed 7 receiving TDs

You force in either Mark Andrews or Isaiah Likely in every lineup. It is as easy as that. Both are fine on the same lineup. 

Tier 1: Mark Andrews, Isaiah Likely

Punt: Charlie Kolar

FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks –SNF Showdown 

I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel, like a quarterback or a workhorse running back. You need the highest-scoring player, not the best value.  The salaries do not change from flex to MVP on FanDuel, so the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top. 

On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range. 

FanDuel MVP Tier 1: Derrick Henry, Lamar Jackson

• DraftKings CPT Tier 1: Derrick Henry, Lamar Jackson
• DraftKings CPT Tier 2: Russell Wilson, Mark Andrews
• DraftKings CPT Tier 3: George Pickens, Rashod Bateman, Isaiah Likely, Jaylen Warren

Best Value: Van Jefferson, Tylan Wallace

Flex Rankings Tier 1:

• Derrick Henry
• Lamar Jackson
• Mark Andrews
• Isaiah Likely
• Russell Wilson
• George Pickens
• Jaylen Warren
• Rashod Bateman
• Chris Boswell 
• Najee Harris
• Justin Tucker
• Pat Freiermuth
• Tylan Wallace
• Justice Hill 
• Van Jefferson
• Calvin Austin
• Ravens Defense 
• Mike Williams
• Steelers Defense 

Flex Rankings Tier 2: (Don’t play more than 1 Tier 2 or Tier 3 guys)

• Nelson Agholor
• Devontez Walker
• Ben Skoronek
• Darnell Washington 
• Cordarrelle Patterson
• Charlie Kolar
• Patrick Ricard

Fadeable Flex Punts: (Don’t play. More than 1 Tier 2 or Tier 3 guys – will probably fade them all)

• MyCole Pruitt
• Connor Heyward
• Steven Sims
• Keaton Mitchell 

Best Rules for the slate:

We have two very condensed offenses. You don’t have to get too cute tonight. 

• Lock in, Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson. In MME you build as many teams as you can with those two. Once you have hit your limit, then you can alternate them on different lineups. This build strategy is going to force you into some uncomfortable punts. That’s good for showdowns if you make a lot of lineups. If you are only making one lineup, ignore it. 
• Lock in at least one; Andrews or Likely (both are fine in the same lineup)
• I always play a QB, so today will be no different. Lock one in
• The numbers tell me to play at least one Steelers pass catcher, so that is what I will do (this is just playing at least one Steeler that isn’t a QB, D, or K)
• I am high on kickers in this one. A lot of my teams will feature Boswell or Tucker
• Stack your kicker with at least one skill player (I am not forcing a kicker)
  • Someone has to move the ball down the field
• Don’t play more than one PIT RB or PIT TE, per lineup
• Don’t play more than 1 Tier 2 or Tier 3 guy