adam.sardinha1@gmail.com 
Welcome to my preview for Saturday DFS Week 16. I will be covering value and punt plays, favorite stacks, and my contrarian plays for all three games on Saturday. Are you ready for some Saturday DFS action? All prices discussed are via DraftKings.
Please join Phil Naessens and I as we break down the Saturday slate on the Win Daily Podcast
Saturday DFS Week 16 – Texans @ Buccaneers – 1 PM EST Opening Line: Houston -1 | Over/Under 53
The first thing about this game is the line movement from the open. It started at 53 in total and is down to 49 from Sunday. The spread has also jumped from -1 Houston to -3 Houston. Via TeamRankings.com since the start of the 2016 NFL season, there have been 14 games where the closing over/under line moved four points lower than the opening over/underline. In these games, the under performed better, going 9-5 (64.3%). Game totals went under the line by an average of 2.4 points.
Quarterbacks
From a quick glance Deshaun Watson ($7,000) and Jameis Winston ($6,900) look like the clear cut best quarterbacks on the slate. Watson is averaging 23.9 fantasy points per game and has essentially all his weapons at his disposal. He has also had 13 rushing attempts for 76 yards over the past two weeks. Watson is a great option for a cash game, but there is a chance that he may not necessarily explode in this matchup. The Tampa Bay defense has been much better over the past month. Over the past four weeks, they rank tenth-best versus the QB position in terms of fantasy points allowed. Patriots rank ninth for some perspective. This improvement has a lot to do with the improved play of Carlton Davis and Jamel Dean via Pro Football Focus. Since Week 10, Dean has the No. 2 coverage grade during that time (91.0), allowing just 33.3% of targets to be completed into his coverage, while Davis ranks eighth with a coverage grade of 81.1 and his 11 forced incompletions lead the league during that time period. Dean and Davis bring two physical corners to the outside of the Bucs’ secondary.
Winston seems like the much better GPP play because of the fact that he will be without both Evans and Godwin. He has a better matchup and has essentially been lights out at home. The Texans have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to the quarterback position over the past four weeks and rank third-worst overall on the season. Winston outside of Week 1 versus SF has scored at least 21 fantasy points in every single home game he has started. The lack of weapons is concerning but Winston has already come out and said he wants to get his TEs involved. Over the past four weeks, the Texans rank third-worst versus the tight end position while ranking ninth-best versus wide receivers. Perhaps Bruce Arians will build his offensive gameplan around Cameron Brate ($3,500) and O.J. Howard ($4,000).
Defenses
It’s also worth mentioning that at the price the Texans ($3,200) could be heavily owned versus the Buccaneers that has been a full-proof positive strategy with Winston leading the NFL in interceptions. However, the Buccanneers ($2,300) should not be overlooked because they have the ability to generate sacks. Shaq Barrett has tied Warren Sapp for the most sacks in a single season in Tampa Bay history and leads the NFL in sacks/quarterback hits. Tampa Bay has also scored 15 or more fantasy points in three of the last four weeks. Houston has scored more than just 15 fantasy points once this season. Get Buccaneers DST exposure in GPPs especially with ownership highly favoring Watson at quarterback.
Running Backs
The Texans have allowed the most receptions to running backs, the fourth-most targets, most receiving yards, most receiving touchdowns, and second-most red-zone targets. Overall over the past four weeks, Houston has allowed the third-most fantasy points to the position. So can you trust the trifecta of Ronald Jones ($4,400), Peyton Barber ($3,900), and Dare Ogunbowale ($3,300)? Arians mentioned he wanted to see more of the running backs involved in the passing game. Unfortunately dissecting which back to trust is tough because over the past two weeks Jones has eight targets with five receptions, Barber has four targets with four receptions, and Ogunbowale has six targets with six receptions. The upside still lies with Jones who owns 10.3 yards per reception this season, but Barber should be mixed in GPPs. He made a nice play on Sunday so Arians could “reward” Barber with more looks.
For the Texans, the matchup is absolute brutal versus the third-ranked defense versus the running back position allowing just 3.5 yards per attempt at home (second-best). Carlos Hyde ($5,000) has rushed for 1,000 yards this season and the Texans do have a 26-point implied team total. Hyde just has seven carries inside the 5-yard line this season. Hyde is someone to get off this week. Rather chase the upside with a Buccaneers running back.
Wide Receivers, Tight Ends
As I mentioned before over the past four weeks, the Texans rank third-worst versus the tight end position while ranking ninth-best versus wide receivers. Both Tampa Bay Buccaneers tight ends are worth rostering. The easiest fade is Breshad Perriman ($6,000). Coming off a three-touchdown game where he ranked fourth on the team in targets, do not chase the touchdowns in this situation. Justin Watson ($4,600) is cheaper and will probably end up being the better per dollar play to play at the wide receiver position.
As for the Texans, DeAndre Hopkins ($8,500) is seeing Michael Thomas like usage in the passing game with eight targets every single week since Week 4. If you are going with Watson in cash, it just makes too much sense to pair him with Hopkins. I also love Will Fuller ($5,900) just because of the upside he brings to the Texans’ offense. Though the Buccaneers have been better versus the QB position, they still rank sixth-worst versus the wide receiver over the past four weeks. Also, Jordan Akins ($2,900) is a sneaky tight end play. Darren Fells ($3,000) has fallen behind Jordan Akins in terms of targets in recent weeks, but he remains Houston’s top tight end in terms of offensive snaps. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the fourth-worst team in terms of fantasy points allowed to the tight end position.
Saturday DFS Week 16 – Bills @ Patriots – 4:25 PM EST Opening Line: New England -6.5 | Over/Under 38.5
The first thing about this game is the line movement from the open. It started at 38.5 in total and is down to 36.5 from Sunday. Via TeamRankings.com. Since the start of the 2014 NFL season, there have been 273 games where the closing line favored the home team by 5.5 to 7.5 points. In these games, the team like New England won the game 201 times (73.6%).
Quarterbacks, Defenses
Both the Bills and Patriots rank top-ten in terms of the fewest fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks over the past four weeks. Tom Brady ($5,200) is the cheapest quarterback on the slate and at home where he is averaging 20 DraftKings points per game, he should be considered for GPPs. The Bills allow the fifth-most passing attempts on the road this season and New England ranks second in the NFL in pass attempts per game. Josh Allen ($5,300) is also worth considering in GPPs that you can play naked as he could be in line for a huge game rushing the football.
There’s an argument to be made that the defenses on this slate are even better plays with the Patriots DST ($4,000) potentially having a slate-breaking upside. They have yet to score less than seven fantasy points at home this season. New England rarely turns the ball over at home, so the Bills DST ($2,900) is a thinner play.
Running Backs
The best running back play in this game has to be Devin Singletary ($5,500) for cash formats. Over the past month, Singletary has been averaging twenty-plus touches per game with usage as a receiver and runner averaging 5.4 yards per attempt. New England’s weaknesses are definitely more versus their run defense so Singletary could find a crease there in the defense. He also did not play in their Week 3 matchup versus the Patriots. Frank Gore ($3,400) rushed for over 100 yards for the one and only time this season when he played the Patriots on 17 attempts. The Patriots have also allowed the fifth-most receptions to the running back position over the past four weeks.
On the Patriots side, Sony Michel ($4,600) is nothing more than a GPP play, but he does have that three-touchdown upside especially at home. James White ($5,800) has seen at least ten targets in two of his last three games versus Buffalo and could see an expanded role in the passing game should Julian Edelman be any more limited.
Wide Receivers, Tight Ends
Starting slot cornerback Jonathan Jones will miss this game which could create a great opportunity for Cole Beasley ($4,800) to have a nice day. Beasley had a season-high 12 targets last time he played NE for 75 yards. Other players to consider that could provide X-factors in this game are Mohamed Sanu ($3,800) and N’Keal Harry ($4,000). Sanu saw a team-high eight targets last week and Harry was playing ahead of Philip Dorsett ($3,100) and Jakobi Meyers ($3,100). If you want to get a weird look at Ben Watson ($2,700) who I know Phil loves this week as a contrarian play! Bills rank fifth-worst versus the tight end over the past four weeks.
Saturday DFS Week 16 – Rams @ 49ers – 8:15 PM EST Opening Line: San Francisco -6.5 | Over/Under 46
Quarterbacks, Defenses
Both the Rams and 49ers rank top-ten in terms of the most fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks over the past four weeks. However, there is only one quarterback that I will be considering starting: Jimmy Garoppolo ($5,500) that comes in cheaper than Jared Goff ($5,800). Goff traditionally struggles on the road especially against teams that pressure the quarterback. The 49ers rank third-best in the NFL in pressure rate by Pro Football Focus. Goff scored 2.12 fantasy points the last time he played SF. Garoppolo scored 14.12 points, but that was a game where Dante Pettis and Marquise Goodwin were the leading receivers.
Both defenses can pressure the quarterback, but I prefer the 49ers DST ($4,300) in a game that I project to be a 49ers’ onslaught.
Running Back
Todd Gurley ($6,300) is a clear-cut option in cash games because the Rams are 100% convinced now on getting him as many touches as they can. He has averaged over 20 touches over the past three weeks. Raheem Mostert ($6,100) is also a trust-worthy option in cash games versus the Rams who just got torched on the ground by the Cowboys. The 49ers are second in the NFL in fantasy points scored for their running backs so you know that one of these running backs is going to be on a winning GPP lineup. I am looking at you Matt Breida ($3,800).
Wide Receivers, Tight Ends
Neither Emmanuel Sanders ($5,500) or Deebo Samuel ($5,100) was heavily involved in the team’s first matchup versus the Rams, and Jalen Ramsey was not on LA. I do not expect either to be heavily shadowed by Ramsey, but both move around the offense and play out of the slot to see production. Obviously George Kittle ($6,500) has been on absolute fire and is the clear cut stacking option with Jimmy G.
As for the Rams options I am getting off the Tyler Higbee ($5,000) train with the return of Gerald Everett ($4,000). Besides the matchup is not great either for Higbee who will be drawing coverage from Jimmie Ward. According to Pro Football Focus, Ward is ranked as the 6th-best safety with an 85.0 overall grade on the year. He also has an 80.5 pass coverage grade and an 86.4 run defense grade. 49ers defensive coordinator came out and said on Higbee that, “We do have to be aware of where he is and understand that he’s not just a decoy, but he and Goff right now have a good relationship and they’re playing very well together.”
Robert Woods ($6,200) is still getting all of the targets in the Rams’ passing attack making him the presumed cash play, but I like utilizing Cooper Kupp ($6,500) in GPPs. Unlike Woods Kupp is no stranger to the end zone and the 49ers have allowed the second-most wide receiver touchdowns over the past two weeks.
