DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 
What a Masters tournament we experienced! Certainly Jon Rahm fulfilled his potential in spades, coming through to dominate a resurgent Brooks Koepka in the final round. With multiple delays and extreme weather, it was an intriguing tournament. Naturally, a bit of lethargy and post-Major hangover is to be expected. You can only imagine how the players feel having been at Augusta National from dawn to dusk. However, another designated event with a huge purse awaits for our 2023 RBC Heritage picks!
In hindsight, Jon Rahm may have seen an obvious winner at The Masters. Our two courses that provided key indicators were the Plantation and Riviera. Obviously, Jon Rahm won both of those tournaments this year. However, he also managed to overcome a huge weather disadvantage. The wave Jon Rahm emerged from played +2.79 strokes harder for the first two rounds. Certainly, that is likely to be the biggest weather edge we see all year. It goes a long way to indicate just how far ahead of the field Rahm was, winning by 4 strokes but playing in a weather wave that on paper was another 3 strokes more difficult than what Koepka played in. Patrick Reed and Russell Henley were the two closest to Rahm from that wave, 5 shots back at -7. It was dominant, impressive, and a well deserved victory.
Course Analysis for our RBC Heritage Picks
Obviously, there is a much stronger field as a result of the elevated status of this event in 2023. The unique and particular Harbour Town Golf Links plays host this week. However, don’t let the name deceive you; the course itself is, for the most part, more like a parkland course than a links.
Only two holes are by the ocean (although water features on all 18 holes) and the course features tree-lined fairways. In some cases, this results in a real sense of claustrophobia off the tee. Not only are the penalties for straying off the tee severe, even finding the fairway may not be enough if you end up on the wrong side due to overhanging trees blocking the path to the hole.
The greens are some of the smallest on the entire PGA Tour and accurate approach play is imperative for your RBC Heritage Picks. Also, a strong scrambling performance will play a factor with the invariable greens missed. Putting is minimized somewhat due to the miniscule nature of the green complexes. However, note that putting from 5ft-15ft does receive a small boost due to that missed GIR potential.
Due to this distinctive style, despite only being a 7,121 yard par-71 the course demands restraint off the tee and has one of the lowest average driving distance on tour. Certainly, players do club down to ensure they position their shot where they need. This also has additional effect of seeing more than double the tour average for number of shots between 175-200 yards as players all end up playing a similar length. Driver length becomes mostly irrelevant.
Course Comps for our 2023 RBC Heritage Picks
Pete Dye’s iconic course designs feature readily on the tour. But, of those, TPC Sawgrass (The Players), TPC River Highlands (Travelers Championship). and Austin Country Club (WGC Matchplay) provide short courses where accuracy and scrambling come to the fore.
The Sea Island Plantation Course (RSM Classic) has strong form links here, again being coastal with winds in play but plentiful trees and bunkering meaning driving accuracy and approach are vital.
Sedgefield Country Club maintains links as a positional course where shorter drivers can thrive but driving accuracy is at a premium. Sedgefield is also highly correlated to TPC Sawgrass, adding to those ties for your RBC Heritage picks.
Weather
Unfortunately, another volatile week looks to be on the cards for our RBC Heritage Picks.
Certainly, on paper Thursday AM looks to be the kindest winds of the day. Concurrently, Thursday PM should see heavy gusts and rain entering the area. However, tempering this is the possibility of thunderstorms in the afternoon, which threaten to flip this edge on it’s head. Knowing how severe and when these thunderstorms may hit is an exercise fraught with risk and uncertainty.
Additionally, Friday weather should be calm all day with a small possibility of showers. Therefore, with the thunderstorms, there remains a real possibility that Thursday PM tee times may end up playing majority of their two rounds in the very best of conditions Friday.
Certainly, from a DFS standpoint, I recommend building stacks in both directions. I will have a slight lean on the Thursday PM and Friday AM tee times due to the threat of lightning delaying play. Therefore, my DFS construction will be 40% PM/AM, 30% AM/PM, and 30% mixed.
You can find latest weather reports here.
RBC Heritage Picks & Golf Betting Tips
Suggested Staking
Matt Kuchar
2.5pts WIN +5000 Draftkings
2.5pts Top 10 +400 Draftkings
or 2.5pts E/W +5000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
Russell Henley – Your RBC Heritage Picks Favourite
2pts WIN +7500 Draftkings
2pts Top 10 +400 Draftkings/MGM
or 2pts E/W +7500 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
Si Woo Kim
2pts WIN +7500 MGM
2pts Top 10 +550 MGM
or 2pts E/W +7500 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
Chris Kirk – Your RBC Heritage Picks Best Value
1pt WIN +8000 Draftkings/MGM
1pt Top 10 +650 Draftkings
or 1pt E/W +8000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
3pts Top 20 +275 Draftkings
Wyndham Clark
1pt WIN +10000 Fanduel/MGM
1pt Top 10 +850 Draftkings
or 1pt E/W +10000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
3pts Top 20 +360 Draftkings
J.J. Spaun
1pt WIN +15000 MGM
1pt Top 10 +800 Fanduel/Draftkings/MGM (+1000 Bet365)
or 1pt E/W +12500 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pts Top 20 +350 MGM
Stephan Jaeger – Your RBC Heritage Picks Longshot
0.5pts WIN +19000 Fanduel
0.5pts Top 10 +1200 Draftkings (+1400 Bet365)
or 0.5pts E/W +20000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +550 Fanduel
And
2pts Top 40 +175 Fanduel/MGM
Andrew Putnam
0.5pts WIN +21000 Fanduel
0.5pts Top 10 +1100 Draftkings/Fanduel
or 0.5pts E/W +20000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +450 Fanduel
And
2pts Top 40 +190 Draftkings/Fanduel
Your RBC Heritage Picks DFS Core: Kuchar, Henley, Kirk
Thank you reading our 2023 RBC Heritage picks. For an article with insights on my golf analysis process, check this link here!
