steve hall 
As we enter the final tournament of the regular season, it’s a natural time of the year to reflect on what a PGA Tour season it has been for our selections thus far. The picks this year have reached a new level, sitting well above 50% ROI and over +640 units in profit. It’s onwards and upwards, as we look to cap the regular season in fine form with our Wyndham Championship picks.
The 3M Open again proved a tricky test to tip. The high volatility of that event always proves boom or bust, where even the best of charges can easily find themselves scratching an 8 into their scorecard. Emiliano Grillo was our closest chance in 10th, if that adjective can even be used following a dominant victory for Lee Hodges. We also had Hideki Matsuyama as one of our three FRL picks, where he finished just one shot off the first round lead.
Sedgefield Country Club – Course Analysis
Sedgefield Country Club plays host to our Wyndham Championship picks, having hosted this tournament since 2008. Obviously, there is copious data to delve into rather than the relatively new track last week. However, it is worth briefly noting that greens changed to Bermudagrass in 2012.
Since then, the track has only become more gettable with 6 of the last 7 winners finishing at -20 or better. I predict a score of -18 to -22 get the job done again. This may even move lower if we see a golfer come out with a Lee Hodges type performance as per last week.
Fairways are narrow, averaging just 26 yards at the key landing zone of 300 yards. Fairways are tree-lined, with shots potentially blocked if substantially astray. Remember that Bermuda rough, on paper, is always deceptive. Although just 2.5in long, Bermuda rough produces varied lies from balls nestling down to producing plenty of flyers. With the key scoring production required on par 4s, it is unsurprising regularly finding fairways is a key predictor of future output here.
The course is a short par 70 with two par 3s over 200 yards and just two par 5s. Clearly, birdies on those par 5s are essential. Therefore, it is increasingly noteworthy that predicted approach strokes over 200 yards sits less than 4 per round. The vast majority of approach will occur between 125-175 yards. This range is a key factor in our Wyndham Championship picks.
Course Comps for our Wyndham Championship Picks
Firstly, this is one of the “stickier” courses for prior course history predicting future success. Webb Simpson strikes an obvious example, but a long list of names can be drawn who have also become Wyndham Chamipionship picks specialists.
Extremely strong links exist between TPC Sawgrass and Sedgefield Country Club. Si Woo Kim is a winner at both courses, holding a further three top 5s here on top of the win and a 9th to compliment his Players Championship win. Webb Simpson and Henrik Stenson have also won at both. Adam Scott has 5 Top 15s at The Players and a 2nd here. Kevin Kisner has won here, with three additional top 10s, and has a 2nd and 4th at TPC Sawgrass. This is one of the strongest course comps we see on the PGA Tour and should play a key role in your Wyndham Championship picks.
Other Donald Ross designs of East Lake Country Club and Detroit Golf Club are factors here. East Lake certainly demands accuracy. Also, Detroit Golf Club fits that bill although it’s acknowledged a little more weight on driving distance is useful than required here.
I have also used TPC Potomac and TPC River Highlands as course comps here. Both require driving accuracy as a vital component to potential success. Additionally, there are also nice correlations in approach buckets. Both are shorter par 70 courses which translate nicely to what we require from our Wyndham Championship picks.
Weather
Weather certainly looks to play a factor this week. Thursday will be overcast all day, but with the calmest winds first thing in the morning. Through the afternoon, winds are expected to build and peaking at gusts of up to 25mph.
Complimenting this is the fact Friday afternoon could well see some delay in play. There is a significant chance of thunderstorms from 12pm through to nightfall. Additionally, heavy rains are expected in the afternoon. It is like that lift clean and place will be in effect, further emphasizing the advantage of accurate drivers. IT seems likely Friday afternoon moves into Saturday morning, offering calmer winds and softer conditions following a day of rain.
This edge could well be substantial and is well worth considering. Particularly for PGA DFS, I would be recommending a heavy weighting to Thursday AM/Friday PM tee times. I suggest a structure of 35% of your lineups built fully targeted at this wave, with 5% contrarian PM/AM and the remaining 60% mixed but weighted to Thursday AM tee times.
Wyndham Championship Picks
Suggested Staking
Russell Henley
2.5pts E/W +2000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
Denny McCarthy – Your Wyndham Championship Picks Favourite
2.5pts E/W +3000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
Chris Kirk
2pts E/W +5000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
Brendon Todd
1pt E/W +7000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pts Top 20 +350 Bet365
Andrew Putnam
1pt E/W +7000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pts Top 20 +350 Bet365
Lucas Glover – Your Wyndham Championship Picks best value
1pt E/W +9000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pts Top 20 +350 Unibet
Zac Blair
0.5pt E/W +20000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +700 Vbet
And
2pts Top 40 +275 TAB
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Golfer Profiles for our Wyndham Championship Picks
Russell Henley
The imminent FedEx Cup playoffs provide an interesting backdrop this week. With a truncated field of just 70 now making the final three events, we see a slightly stronger field here to usual. There are plenty of questions around several of the shorter priced favourites here this week. Henley is one of two who answers the most for me.
It has been a strong year for Henley, who picked up a 4th PGA Tour win at Mayakoba. That is another course where driving accuracy is key, as our his wins at the Honda Classic and the Sony Open (where he also lost in a playoff in 2022). Further, three of his four victories came at scores lower than -20.
In a stellar year, he has finished in the top 20 in 45% of his tournaments. Despite a lack of distance, Henley ranks 2nd in the field for SG: T2G over the last 3 months. He also boasts a 19th at The Players and the Travelers Championship (TPC River Highlands). Both of these are elevated events with strong fields, but also two of the best comp courses to Sedgefield Country Club. Finally, he ranks behind only Scottie Scheffler to be 2nd on PGA Tour this calendar year for approach shots from 100-150 yards with over 100 shots recorded.
Henley played his college golf at University of Georgia, just 4 and a half hours drive from this course. It is no surprise he has experienced success at a venue where he has three consecutive top 10s. A 2nd win to cap a superb season would not be surprising here.
Denny McCarthy – Your Wyndham Championship Picks Favourite
I can rule a line through Denny McCarthy’s Open Championship performance. Adapting to links golf is always a tough task for American players. There are no courses in the USA that make anything close to a direct comparison to the golf required for success. Instead, I look to a run of 3 tops 10s and a 20th at the US Open.
As a University of Virginia alumni, some parallels of comfort. can be drawn for Denny as they were for Henley. A missed cut in 2022 came off a previous missed cut at a weak event. Prior to that, his form here reads 36-22-9-15. Further, Denny boasts a 13th at The Players this year and a 7th at the Travelers Championship.
Denny has looked close to a victory all year, with the playoff loss to Viktor Hovland at the Memorial Tournament the most notable. His season has been fully deserving of a maiden PGA Tour victory. His superb putting, driving accuracy, and improvement in approach in 2023 all bodes well to finally tick that box.
Chris Kirk
Again, I can put a red line through Chris Kirk’s Open Championship performance for the same reasons as Denny. The well-rounded nature of Kirk’s game will be beneficial here, as will him gaining on the field for driving accuracy in 4 consecutive tournaments.
Kirk’s win at the Honda Classic can be considered at least moderately analogous to the skills required this week. Excellent records can also be found at the Donald Ross designed Detroit Golf Club, where he holds a record of 21-12-17-14. He has 6 consecutive made cuts at this tournament, including an 11th and 29th most recently.
Also eye-catching is sitting 3rd on the PGA Tour, behind Scheffler and Henley, in the key approach range of 100-150 yards. Another product of University of Georgia, he now arrives having put his recovery over alcoholism behind him and to fulfill the potential he has always held.
Brendon Todd
Completing a trifecta of former Georgia Bulldogs, Brendon Todd is great value at the 70/1 on offer with 8 places. To further strengthen his ties to the area, Todd played his junior golf in North Carolina one hour away from this course.
Like Henley, he is a winner at Mayakoba where driving accuracy is paramount. Todd is 2nd in this field for driving accuracy over the last 3 months. Also like Henley, he ranks very highly in the key approach brackets to attack the shorter par 4s here.
Todd has a 10th place finish here already and had a quietly decent Players Championship when finishing 27th around TPC Sawgrass this year. The 49th place finish at The Open wasn’t bad all considered, but the 2nd place finish at the John Deere Classic was certainly noteworthy.
Andrew Putnam
Andrew Putnam here reminds me of Brian Harman at Mayakoba earlier in the season. Harman, on paper, seemed like he was a perfect course fit. However, he had never really out the results to match that perceived suitability to his game. That changed with his runner-up finish behind Henley. I’m hoping for a similar result here with Putnam.
On face value, Putnam has played here three times for two missed cuts and a 27th. It’s hardly earth shattering. However, this is a course that should setup perfectly for him. He is one of the most accurate drivers on tour and has excellent short game output. He is 7th best on the PGA Tour in the 100-150 yard approach range this calendar year.
Over the past three months, Putnam is 16th for driving accuracy, 8th for SG: APP, and 9th for SG: Putt in this field. All up, that translates to sitting 11th in SG: Total for this field over the last 3 months. He arrives off the back of 6 made cuts. The relative lack of course history is the only thing that points to the current offering of 70/1. It seems generous for a golfer who has had a great year and arrives at a course that should suit.
Lucas Glover – Your Wyndham Championship Picks Best Value
I feel the 90/1 price about Glover relates a gross overreaction to the missed cut last week. A popular selection at the 3M Open, he missed the cut right on the number. Hardly worth fully discounting his chances and a large drift in his odds for a comparative strength of field.
Prior to that, Glover looked to be finding good gains with his new putter. Those three finishes of 6th or better included a 4th at the Ross designed Detroit Golf Club. As is often the case with Glover, the ball-striking metrics read well. He is 8th for driving accuracy and 5th for SG: APP in this field for the last 3 months, sitting 15th for SG: T2G.
However, if the putter is going to be the answer he has found it to some degree here previously. Prior to the putting woes that have plagued his last few years, he held a record here of 20-24-7-30 and then a further 18th and 22nd here more recently. I’m willing to forgive a week where he was not necessarily all that far away and include him here again at a bigger price.
Zac Blair
Finally, we will end with a familiar longshot pick this year in Zac Blair. As I’ve traversed previously, we need to read Blair’s career in the context of an injury. Blair missed 21 months following surgery to repair two tears in his shoulder. Back healthy again, a strong performance this week could well be on the cards.
Blair finished 13th last week at the 3M Open. It was a promising performance for a golfer who also surprised many at the elevated Travelers Championship when finishing 2nd. I had included him in my selections the tournament prior at the RBC Canadian Open at 600/1, before an undisclosed withdrawal.
The reason was it ticked many of the key demands here: driving accuracy, approach with wedges, and an occasional hot putter. Blair sits 12th for driving accuracy, 26th for SG: APP, and 33rd for SG: Putting in this field over the last 3 months. That is more than decent output for a golfer going off at odds of 200/1 with 8 places (or even longer without the places).
His other notable performance this year was a 10th at the Valspar Championship. That is certainly not the worst correlation you can draw to Sedgefield, with a tree lined golf course where driving accuracy is a key measure of success. The key difference being the larger number of shots required over 200 yards for approach. These approach ranges are much more in the wheelhouse for Blair, who could again raise a few eyebrows here come Sunday.
Summary
Finally, thank you reading our 3M Open picks. Meanwhile, you can read an article with some insights on my golf analysis process check this link here!
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