DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 
Another week and another winner for @DeepDiveGolf and WinDaily Sports. Not only did Lucas Glover secure us the win at 90/1, we completed a double with Russell Henley within out selections finishing 2nd. Obviously, they both secured us a full place payout with Glover backed in Top 20 markets too. Also cashing a Top 20 was Brendon Todd at 70/1, alongside a partial place payout for his 7th placed finish. We arrive at a tournament where we had the winner Will Zalatoris. What a way to enter the FedEx Cup Playoffs and our FedEx St Jude Championship Picks!
TPC Southwind Course Analysis
TPC Southwind hosts the first event of the 2023 FedExCup playoffs, as it did last year when usurping the Northern Trust Open. What should be noted is the course has featured on the PGA Tour in some form since 1989. Formerly known as the FedEx St Jude Classic and then the WGC FedEx St Jude Invitational, it makes for a confusing journey. It is therefore essential to use Course History rather than Tournament History when you are analyzing this event. Also, note that this is a no cut event and all golfers are guaranteed a full four rounds.
What should you expect from TPC Southwind? This quirky course provides for a volatile and stern test. Water features on 11 holes. Rough is 2.5 inch bermudagrass, which on paper sounds light compared to 4+ inch rough when Kentucky bluegrass is seeded. However, always be cognizant of the fact that Bermuda can produce flyers or see the ball settle down deep.
Another agronomic quirk is the feature of zoysiagrass fairways. This divisive and sturdy grass has been loved by some players who describe it as like playing off a tee. Conversely, it is hated by others as it has a propensity to produce random flyers. This novel grass type features at TPC Craig Ranch (AT&T Byron Nelson), East Lake (Tour Championship), and Bellerive Country Club (2018 PGA Championship).
Adding to this tough test are narrow fairways at just 28 yards width at the 300 yard carry mark and smaller than average greens at just 4,300 sq ft on average. It is no surprise that winning scores have ranged in the low to mid teens, with scores from -13 to -16 being sufficient for the last four years. It is reasonable to expect a forecast winning total around -15 to -19 this year.
Weather
Lift, Clean, and Place was in effect for the first two rounds in 2022. That seems a real possibility again this year. Storm cells are in the area and overnight Wednesday is currently forecast for thunderstorms plus heavy rain. This is predicted to continue into Thursday AM, with delay in play possible. Winds should also reduce as the day goes on.
Friday also possesses the possibility of thunderstorms in the afternoon. However, rains are forecast to be lighter and any delays should not be as substantial if current predictions prove true. Through the weekend, more thunderstorms are forecast each afternoon. This has already seen the tour revert back to three-ball groupings across the first two days, when originally planning to use two-ball pairs, although they will still see all groups off the 1st tee.
Overall, with the number of thunderstorms in the forecast it becomes extremely difficult to accurately predict where any weather edge may fall. This is further mitigated now that the reversion to three-balls will see a more condensed set of tee times. My lean is that the later times on Thursday may get the best of it, but this is certainly not a given.
Ideal Golfer Profile for TPC Southwind
All up, this tight and tough test from all aspects has benefitted the best ball-strikers in the game. Although an astounding statistic, it is no real surprise that 9 of the last 12 winners have lead the field for SG: Tee to Green.
SG: APP will be imperative more so than most weeks. Particularly, given course length there is a heavy weighting on shots from 100-200 yards. This will make up 78% of all approach shots on average with just one shot under 100 yards and 3 over 200 yards predicted.
Driving accuracy is also a positive correlation to success here. Given the narrow fairways and potentially gnarly rough, this again makes sense. I believe this will carry even more emphasis this year given the real potential for LCP on multiple days. Those finding the fairways could gain a substantial edge should they be allowed to clean their golf ball and give themselves a perfect lie consistently. Finding greens will only become more difficult as the tournament goes on and the greens firm up. Being in the shorter grass will ease some of that obstacle come the weekend.
Course Comps for TPC Southwind
Firstly, note that given the volatility inherent with TPC Southwind that course history here should carry less weighting than at other events.
TPC Craig Ranch provides a good correlation, both in key aspects like approach metrics and driving accuracy but also featuring zoysia fairways. Bellerive can also be used for similar reasons, where Koepka has won both there and at this event. East Lake would become a factor, but given the starting strokes at that tournament dissipating that data from the noise becomes a little trickier.
PGA National (Honda Classic) provides a stern test with plenty of water in play, as well as bermudagrass greens. Colonial Country Club (Charles Schwab Challenge) is a similar length course with high emphasis on approach and smaller than average greens. Finally, the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook (Valspar Championship) rewards driving accuracy and approach.
FedEx St Jude Championship Picks
Suggested Staking
Jon Rahm
6pt Win Only +1000 (Bet365 Bet Boost)
Collin Morikawa – Your FedEx St Jude Championship Picks Favourite
3pt E/W +3300 (Unibet with 5 places 1/4 odds)
Russell Henley
2.5pt E/W +4000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
Corey Conners
1.5pt E/W +6600 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +170 Bet365
Sepp Straka
1pt E/W +8000 (Unibet with 5 places 1/4 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +160 Bet365
Harris English – Your FedEx St Jude Championship Picks Best Value
1pt E/W +8000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pt Top 20 +200 Bet365
[tallysight url=”https://tallysight.com/new/widget/betslip/1691579295032-adc9-229?id=b0109b4f-102b-4c68-a926-477dc626bfc5″]
Golfer Profiles
Jon Rahm
The markets correctly assess the top three golfers in the world as the favourites here. The big three obviously hold extreme win equity at this event. Of those, Rahm answers the most questions for me.
First, I love the price we are able to get on Rahm. Priced at +1000 at Bet365 under their Bet Boost, he is the longest of the three favourites. This is despite some books actually having Rahm as favourite and as low as +650.
Much of the selection comes down to queries around the other two favourites. Of course, Scheffler and McIlroy are extremely talented golfers who would not surprise if victorious.
Both have been spotted with new putters this week. Whether that works for them is anyone’s guess. Scheffler’s putting woes have been well documented. In a season of complete ball-striking masterclass, he could easily have won a half-dozen tournaments had his putter being anything at tour average or above. Although putting may be a reduced metric for me this week, that still poses a concern when at such short odds.
Likewise, McIlroy is on a great run of 7 consecutive Top 10 finishes since the PGA Championship in May. The concern here comes that we have atypically seen him a little more wayward with the driver of late. On a course fraught with danger, the risk of the large hook emerging at an inopportune moment is a potential threat around TPC Southwind.
Let’s not forget though that it has been a superb year for the Spaniard. Donning the green jacket with his Masters win came alongside wins at the prestigious Genesis Invitational at Riviera, the American Express, and the Sentry Tournament of Champions. Rahm finished 2nd on last sighting at The Open Championship, although it felt rather distant given Brian Harman’s dominance. It is worth noting that tournament rewarded driving accuracy as we predict here.
He sists 2nd in this field behind only Scheffler for SG: APP over the last 3 months and 3rd for SG: T2G. Rahm also holds a 5th and 7th from his 3 appearances on this course, showing at least an aptitude for this test. He also finished 4th on zoysiagrass around Bellerive at the 2018 PGA Championship. Further complimenting the course comps are a 7th in his sole appearance at the Valspar Championship as well as a 2nd and 5th at Colonial Country Club.
Finally, Rahm is a three time winner of the DP World Tour Championship for the equivalent season deciding tournament on the European side. He is a big time tournament player who has already shown an ability to bring his best in the highest pressure moments. As the current leader in the FedEx Cup, I expect him to start that title charge this week.
Collin Morikawa
Collin Morikawa looks a lot closer than many will give him credit for. It has been a frustrating couple of seasons for Morikawa. 2022 proved the first PGA Tour season where he was unable to record a win. No doubt, he will be desperate to ensure that this year does not provide the same result.
In terms of data, his game looks in excellent shape. He is 3rd in this field for SG: APP over the last 3 months, behind only Scheffler and Rahm. Notably though, he compliments this is with his ever consistent driving accuracy where he ranks 6th.
That lack of victories could easily have proven different. He effectively handed Rahm victory at the Sentry Tournament of Champions, was 3rd at the Farmers Insurance Open, and 2nd two tournaments ago at the Rocket Mortgage Classic.
His course fit is backed up by his results here, with a 5th in last year’s tournament complimented by 26th and 20th place finishes when this was still a full field event. Additionally, 2nd on debut at Colonial and having made the cut at all appearances on comp courses are further indicators. As for that pesky putter, he has gained putting in his last 4 tournament on US soil. Above the fact that this course may not emphasize putting as much as others, that is another positive sign.
The 33/1 for Morikawa was far too juicy, so those WinDaily subscribers in our Discord channel certainly benefited from their access. His price has been cut sharply to just 22/1 in an indication he provides one of the leading chances outside the top three.
Russell Henley
Runner-up for our tips last week at the Wyndham Championship, Henley will be frustrated not to have finished with a win. An untimely weather delay saw him return to the course in a shakier status when seemingly striding to victory, as did finding a nasty divot in the middle of the fairway on 16. Fortunately for us, we also had Glover in the selections.
Henley is still disrespected in markets despite the superb year he is having. Data Golf currently rank him as the 13th best golfer in the world, whilst his Official World Golf Ranking of 29th suggests a situation where some eventual correction is expected.
All of Henley’s victories have come on courses that demand driving accuracy. The Sony Open (where he has also finished 2nd), Houston Open, Mayakoba, and Honda Classic wins all point to the type of test that will suit his game. It was no different at the Wyndham Championship last week, where both him and winner Glover ranked in the top 10 for driving accuracy entering the tournament. In this field, he ranks 8th in that metric and 7th for SG: APP.
Henley has finished in the top 20 in 9 of his last 12 tournaments. These have included at majors and elevated events, demonstrating that he has been able to mix it with the best this year. A second victory for the season would not surprise.
Corey Conners
Another that I feel is closer than many expect is Corey Conners. We have seen him record 9th at the Travelers, 8th at Wells Fargo, 12th at the PGA Championship, and 19th in the Scottish Open. All are elevated events or the better fields on the PGA Tour.
Conners is 15th in this field for SG: T2G and 10th for driving accuracy over the last 3 months. His approach data gets skewed a little having lost strokes at The Open (a clearly very different test of the irons on a links course) and one anomaly week at The Memorial.
On this course, he has finished 27-30-36-28 in his last four appearances. Further comp course form can be found at Colonial (8-31-19-20) alongside 16th and 18th place finishes at Valspar. Finally, we have seen Conners gain putting in his last two tournaments. Doing so again alongside his exemplary approach and driving accuracy numbers, he is an outside chance for victory here.
Sepp Straka
Another who has narrowed sharply in the market, Straka was available when recommended at 80/1 before being sharply cut into 50/1. Credit to those who are active in WinDaily Discord for hopefully snagging a longer price.
Much of this can be due to the playoff loss to Zalatoris here last year complimented by the recent decisive victory at the John Deere Classic and 2nd at The Open Championship. Further, I love the correlation at the Honda Classic where he has won and finished 5th in his last two apperances.
Straka is the epitome of high upside and low floor. His volatile game though is tempered somewhat by the guarantee of four rounds here. He rates out well at 17th in SG: APP and 9th for driving accuracy in this field over the last 3 months. Given he has actually had very marginal losses in approach for 4 of his last 6 tournaments highlights the upside that comes when his irons are on.
Harris English
Finally, I’ll speculate on the continued resurgence of Harris English here. In what was a decent week for English last week became hampered by a field average putting display. That will always prove difficult to overcome in a birdie fest. However, ranking 3rd for SG: APP and 2nd for driving accuracy at the Wyndham Championship was another promising sign for this previous Ryder Cup player.
A former winner here in 2013 (complimented by a further 4th on last appearance and a 10th), he also has won at Mayakoba like Henley. He holds a 13th on the zoysia fairways in his sole appearance at TPC Craig Ranch, three top 20s at the Honda Classic, a 7th and 10th at the Valspar Championship, and a 2nd, 5th, 12th, 20th, and 29th around Colonial Country Club.
English ranks as 14th for driving accuracy and 27th for APP in the last three months. Again, like Straka this includes 3 of 5 tournaments with minor losses on approach surrounded by some spike weeks. At a course he obviously loves, a strong performance here would not be a surprise.
Summary
Finally, thank you reading our FedEx St Jude Championship picks. Meanwhile, you can read an article with some insights on my golf analysis process when you click this link here!
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