PGA PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIP GPP PICKS

This week we have a lot of talent at the top of the PGA Players Championship which is going to create value toward the bottom.   My lineups will likely be comprised of 50% balanced lineups and 50% studs and duds.  There is plenty of value in the 6k and 7k ranges so do not be afraid to take some chances, particularly in the larger GPPs.  You’ll notice I have some chalk plays in my write-up, but plenty of leverage plays as well (and you’ll notice plenty of overlap with Antonio’s picks which should make for a strong week). 

I have also included three outright plays which you will see below.  I have hit three outrights in a row (Reed, Im, Hatton).  I may have an additional outright or some matchup plays that I will share in our PGA Discord channel on Wednesday night. 

10k and above

Jon Rahm (11000/12000) – Everyone in this range is a bit overpriced other than Rahm and Rory.  I will have no problem if you want to choose Rory in this range but I think it’s time to finally pivot from him as I think he’s due for a letdown after coming so close the last few tournaments.  Rahm finished 12^th here last year and his 2020 season is off to a great start, which includes Top 10’s in 3 of his last 4 on the PGA Tour (most recently a 3^rd at the WGC).  He’s gaining strokes in all categories and his Tee to Green numbers are very good.  Rahm is sure to garner some ownership but many may opt to pay a little bit extra for Rory and bypass Rahm altogether.  I will note that I will also have some ownership of Justin Thomas (20-25%) and I will also sprinkle in Brooks Koepka (10%) in this range as contrarian play with upside. 

9k and above

Webb Simpson (9200/10700) – My only hesitation here is that he hasn’t played much on the PGA Tour lately and last time we saw Webb he was finishing 61^st at the WGC.  This should keep Webb’s ownership relatively low compared to some guys that I anticipate will be chalky in this range (i.e. – Xander, Cantlay and Bryson).  Webb won the Waste Management earlier this year and his metrics grade out well (other than being a little shaky off the tee).  Add to that he’s finished 16th, 1st, and 16^th the last three years at this event, and I think we have some value with Webb.

Bryson DeChambeau (9100/11300) – Yes he’s likely to be a bit chalky especially at this price, but he’s just been too good lately to fade.  I love where Bryson’s game is at the moment and I love how he is attacking each hole of each PGA golf course.  I already have Bryson as an outright in the Masters and I will have him as an outright at the Players at 20 to 1.  I should note that Bryson is 4th on the betting board in Vegas at 20 to 1 (just behind Rory, Rahm, and JT) and yet he is 10^th in DFS pricing.  Clearly the betting boards are paying Byrson more respect than DraftKings and Fanduel.  Bryson has played this course twice and finished 20^th and 37^th. 

Tommy Fleetwood (9000/11000) – Fleetwood was a complete fade for me last week as I just didn’t expect him to recover from how he finished at the PGA Honda Classic.  But now that’s out of his system with a bad showing at the Arnold Palmer.  So here we are with maybe the lowest owned golfer in this range who clearly has the talent to win the tournament and who has finished Top 10 here the last two years.  I think Fleetwood is mispriced here (I also think Bryson is mispriced).

8k and above

Gary Woodland (8300/10300) – I’m not a big fan of this rangefor various reasons but I do like Woodland. His track record here isn’t great, but he’s been pretty great latelywith an 8^th at the Honda and a 12^th at the WGC.  I don’t think Woodland has come close toreaching his potential this season.  Iwill also play a little bit of PatrickReed and Paul Casey in this rangebut there will be plenty of lineups where I skip this range altogether.  Woodland is an outright play at 45 to 1.

7k and above

Collin Morikawa (7900/10000) – Mr. Automatic.  My main criticism of him last week was thathe always survives a cut, but never seems to crack the Top 10.  Well, clearly he reads my material as hefinished 9^th last week at Bay Hill (you’re welcome Collin).  Morikawa has given us a grand total of zeroreasons not to trust him so feel free to trot him out there if you need acut-maker.  Just be mindful of the factthat it’s no secret that Morikawa hasn’t missed a cut since turning pro lastyear, so he’s likely to be a bit chalky, particularly at this price.   If youtake him, you must find ownership leverage in a few other places. 

Billy Horschel (7500/9800) – I can’t recommend a super chalky play in this range without recommending a contrarian play in the same range.  Horschel should be owned in the 5-7% range and has been making plenty of cuts lately.  He also finished 9^th at the WGC and 9^th at the PGA in Phoenix so he has exhibited the upside to crack the Top 10.  He’s lost strokes on approach this year which is concerning but his T2G numbers are solid.  I won’t be overweight on Horschel but I’ve seen him perform very well in past years and I won’t be surprised at all if he shows up at the Players.

Ian Poulter (7300/9500) – Poulter has been a forgotten man lately and that will definitely keep his ownership low.  With that said, he’s been solid with a 32^nd and 27^th place finish at the Arnold Palmer and PGA Honda Classic.  Add to that he hasn’t missed a cut in six years at the Players which includes a 2^nd place finish in 2017.  Poulter’s main issue is his OTT game but that shouldn’t hurt him too badly on this track. 

Abraham Ancer (7200/8900) – He’s been a little up and down lately but a 56^th at the PGA Arnold Palmer doesn’t have me too nervous as it was very tough sledding out there last weekend.  Ancer finished 12^th at the WGC, and interestingly, finished 12^th at the Players last year.  Frankly, I don’t think Ancer gets the respect he deserves and I hope that keeps ownership relatively calm.  He gains strokes in all categories and his T2G numbers are good.  I think he’s a good course fit here.  Ancer is an outright play at 70 to 1.

Ryan Moore (7200/8100) – Speaking of guys who don’t get much respect, here we have a nice little contrarian play.  Moore has projected ownership of less than 2% which gives you a nice leverage opportunity if you are to take some chalk at the higher ranges.  Moore is gaining strokes in most PGA categories and his T2G metrics are good enough to consider in this range.  Moore has played at this track a number of times and has made the cut his last three in a row. 

6k and above

Cameron Tringale (6600/7300) – I’ll admit that Tringale’s upside is limited compared to some of the PGA golfers in this range, but he’s also more likely to make the cut than most in this range.  Tringale’s T2G and APP metrics are solid and he’s made 5 out of 6 cuts.

Tom Hoge (6500/8000) – Pretty great value in this range and he’s certain to be under 2% owned.  Hoge showed up at the PGA Arnold Palmer with a 15^th place finish.  He gains strokes in almost all categories outside of ARG (around the green).  Before missing the cut at the Honda, Hoge was on an absolute tear and I think we are getting tremendous value with a surprisingly consistent golfer.

J.T. Poston (6400/8100) – He had a bad tournament last week but as you’ve seen above, I’m willing to excuse that due to the conditions.  Poston had been good prior to Bay Hill with 5 made cuts in a row.  Frankly, his metrics don’t jump out at me but I do think he’s a solid player and he finished 22^nd last year in his first PGA Players Championship.  Poston is projected to be owned at less than 2%.

Sung Kang (6400/7800) – Another guy that will probably be owned at less than 2% (which will be a common theme in this range outside of Max Homa and Joel Dahmen who will be extremely chalky).  His putting and around the green game is not ideal, but I’m willing to take Kang in a few lineups because when he is good, he’s really good (9^th last week and 2nd at the Genesis).  He’s very risky but I like the upside enough to include him in a couple of lineups. 

Bud Cauley (6200/7600) – Digging deep here but Cauley has been good this season and has a good shot to make the cut and continue to score some DFS points.  Cauley has made four consecutive cuts and also made the cut at the PGA Players last year.  His main issue from a metrics standpoint has been his OTT game and you can afford to be a little off in that category at the Players.

Sebastian Munoz (6100/7500) – Munoz has plenty of upside and a very realistic shot at making the cut.   Prior to missing the cut last week, he had three made cuts in a row including a 14^th at the PGA WGC and a 26th at the Genesis.  He has no course experience on this track which I’m not a big fan of but he has been very good this season and if you need some cash to get the big guns in your lineup, you can certainly take a shot with Munoz. 

Sample Lineup 1:  Rahm,Bryson, Morikawa, Horschel, Poulter, Ancer

Sample Lineup 2:  Rahm,Fleetwood, Simpson, Ancer, Homa, Hoge

Sample Lineup 3:  Thomas, Bryson, Reed, Woodland, Moore, Munoz

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