DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 
The Glove(r)s are officially off! The run of Lucas Glover has captured the minds of the golf world, after the majority of a season where he looked to be slipping into obscurity. We had another profitable week from our selections, with the round by round matchups proving especially lucrative with lift, clean, and place for the entire tournament. We also had both Conners and Henley secure a place finish in 6th. The field is now just the top 50 players for our BMW Championship picks and they face a course we have seen just once in 2020. What type of golfer does Olympia Fields suit? Get it right and we could well find another winner.
Olympia Fields Course Analysis
Olympia Fields Country Club played host once in 2020, so we do have some data to guide us in the right direction here. That tournament saw the course play as the hardest track all season with Jon Rahm winning at -4. He did so by overcoming a sluggish start and playing the weekend in -10. He defeated Dustin Johnson that week and that profile of player suggests a lot of what to look for this week.
In fact, all of the top 6 ranked in 11th for driving distance or better for the tournament. That may seem obvious for a par 70 playing at 7,366 yards, with both par 5s over 600 yards and the devilish par 4 18th playing at 510 yards. The course averaged 297.1 yards off the tee, one of the longest driving averages that year, further reiterating that players felt they needed to draw driver here more often than not.
Yes, there is the odd anomaly like Fitzpatrick and Todd on that leaderboard. However, looking into the manner of those performances tells us much too. Fitzpatrick was 9th for driving accuracy, 7th on approach, and 13th for putting. Todd, beyond being 13th for driving accuracy, was easily the best putter in the field that week. The gap between him and the 2nd best putter was the same as 2nd and 8th. If you lack driving distance here, your path to victory narrows substantially. Basically, you’ll need to be near perfect in every other aspect of your game.
On the matter of driving accuracy, the course was the most difficult fairways to find on tour. Fairways are just 25 yards wide on average in key carry distances. This was the 3rd narrowest of the season in 2020. Finding fairways may be marginally easier for reasons we will discuss when it comes to weather. The rough is 4 inch Kentucky Bluegrass and, with tree lined fairways, proved to be the 3rd most penal for the season if failing to find the short grass.
Olympia Fields was also the 3rd lowest Greens in Regulation, 7th most difficult ATG, and toughest for putts over 15 feet. Disproportionate number of approach shots were recorded between 125-175 yards and over 250 yards.
The ideal profile for me consists of prodigious driving distance, approach, and around the green. Ideally, the driving distance comes with a modicum of accuracy. Which, essentially, massively narrows your pool of potential players.
Comp Courses for Olympia Fields
First, remember to set for course history not tournament history when analyzing this event. In saying that, last year’s event in Wilmington should be somewhat predictive. That was a 7,424 yard par 71 where fairways were only found 44.8% of the time and one of the longest driving distance averages.
Immediately, the 2020 US Open at Winged Foot comes to mind here. When Bryson DeChambeau and the big driving Matthew Woolf took on that challenge, the fairways found percentage was so low that simply being long was the key to success. DJ ties the comps together nicely having been 6th there before his playoff defeat on this course. Matsuyama was 4th after 3 rounds at Winged Foot and finished the 2020 BMW Championship in 3rd. Finau also draws a nice line with a 5th here and an 8th at Winged Foot. Greens are a bentgrass/poa mix as seen here.
Oak Hill, host of this year’s 2023 PGA Championship, should also be a nice comp course. That course measures up near identically being a par 70 7,339 yards (Olympia Fields par 70 7,366 yard). Accuracy percentage was just 45.2% (Olympia Fields 46.1%) and the average par 4/5 yardage was 469 yards (Olympia Fields 465 yards). We again saw bentgrass in the mix on the Oak Hill greens.
I’d not rule out Southern Hills (2022 PGA Championship) and LACC (2023 US Open host). Sure, both allowed more space off the tee and fairways to be hit. However, they asked similar questions with distances required and key yardages also correlated.
Finally, one of my strongly favoured comps this week is host of the Genesis Invitational at Riviera Country Club. Rahm completed the double winning here in 2020 and at Riviera earlier this season. His 2020 playoff opponent DJ is also a winner at the Genesis Invitational, along with an additional 2 runner-up finishes and 9 top 10s. Niemann won at Riviera in and was 3rd at Olympia Fields, As was Matsuyama, who holds a 4th, 5th, and 9th at the Genesis. Finally, Kokrak also has a 2nd at Riviera before a 6th here.
Weather
The first thing to note is the area has experienced heavy rain fall during the past month. This will see the course play a bit softer. Hence, this perhaps sees a slightly higher number of fairways held compared to if it were very firm and fast. What this does mean is the rough will be plenty thick and juicy.
Thursday morning should present the highest winds, which will then ease throughout the day. There is a chance of thunderstorms midmorning and heavy rain if they come to fruition. Friday should present the calmest winds in the morning with moderate gusts entering in the afternoon. Notably, the weather should be sunny from Friday onwards and see the course crisp up as the tournament unfolds.
Given the condensed field of 50 golfers, any weather edge is reduced somewhat. However, I would give a preference to the pairs going out later on Thursday from the 10:43am group onwards (starting with the Team Cam group of Davis and Young).
BMW Championship Golf Betting Picks
Suggested Staking
Jon Rahm – Your BMW Championship Picks Favourite
5pts Win Only +950 (Bet365 Enhanced Win)
Max Homa
2.5pt E/W +2500 (Unibet with 5 places 1/4 odds)
Justin Rose
2pt E/W +6000 (Bet365 with 8 place 1/5 odds)
Cam Davis – Your BMW Championship Best Value
2pt E/W +7000 (Bet365 with 8 place 1/5 odds)
Harris English
0.5pt E/W +10000 (Unibet with 5 place 1/4 odds)
And
3pt Top 20 +200 Unibet
Adam Schenk
0.5pt E/W +15000 (Bet365 with 8 place 1/5 odds)
And
3pt Top 20 +250 Unibet
Kurt Kitayama
0.5pt E/W +20000 (Unibet with 5 place 1/4 odds)
And
3pt Top 20 +335 Unibet
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Summary
Finally, thank you reading our BMW Championship picks. Meanwhile, you can read an article with some insights on my golf analysis process when you click this link here!
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