PGA GPP Picks: Genesis Open

At this point, you have already reviewed the two WinDaily PGA articles featuring course notes and projection models.   I won’t rehash what you’ve already reviewed but I will tell you I’m focusing on ball-strikers this week, particularly those who are good with their irons between 150-200 yards as we have a host of long Par 4’s at Riviera Country Club.  Driving distance certainly helps but is not critical. As always, I’m also focusing on course history and recent history.  This field is absolutely stacked with talent and you can afford to do studs and duds or go balanced.  Now let’s get to the picks:

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10k and above

Justin Thomas (11000/12000) – You may recall at the beginning of the new year I deemed Justin Thomas the best PGA golfer in the world.  You’ll see that bias revealing itself in tournaments like this one, where there is so little separating one elite player from the other.  With that said, JT certainly fits the mold of what it takes to succeed here as he can drive the ball and can hit the greens with long irons.  His only issue as of late has been putting and I am always counting on positive regression in that category especially among formerly solid putters like JT. He has taken a couple of weeks off but comes in with great form and great course history (2^nd in 2019 and 9^th in 2018).

Rory McIlroy (11600/12200) – I’m not exactly splitting the atom hereby recommending Rory, but I do think he is a solid play in spite of his heavy price tag.  Rory has a solid course history here and was 4th in 2019.  His last PGA Tour event was at the Farmer’s where he finished 3rd so the form appears to be in good shape.  I’m likely to play a little less Rory than JT, but one of the two will be in about 70% of my lineups.  The other 30% will likely feature Cantlay as the most expensive option in my PGA GPP lineups (I will also have a few shares of Dustin Johnson from this range). 

9k and above

Patrick Cantlay (9800/11400) – Played well last week at the Pro-Am and his course history the last two years is solid with a 15^th and 4^th place finish.  A west coast kid who is very familiar with this course and with Kikuyu.  I should note that Antonio’s PGA WinDaily model checks all the necessary boxes and makes Cantlay a strong value with a shot to take this thing down.

Xander Schauffele (9200/11300) – Good course history here including back to back Top 15’s.  Recent form checks out other than a missed cut at the Farmers.  I’m going to have way more Cantlay than Xander but I included Xander here because I frankly don’t love much of the value in this range.  I should note that I will be fading Bubba Watson in all PGA GPP’s.  While I realize he is the king of this course and he has been red hot, I just can’t justify putting him in my GPP lineups given his expected ownership and pricetag. 

8k and above

Marc Leishman (8700/10500) – Pains me to have this guy on my roster but I can’t ignore his upside in this event (in the last 4 years he has two Top 5’s and two missed cuts) and his recent form (1^st place at the Famers and top 30 at the Sony).  Add to that he’s an Australian which gives him a leg up on Kikuyu and I think it’s safe to say he enters this PGA tournament with plenty of confidence.  Certainly some volatility here so he probably is only rostered in 20% – 25% of my lineups.

Patrick Reed (8600/10600) – Not a bomber but he is greaton the long Par 4’s which is big at Riviera. Course history is sketchy here as he has not played at this tournamentthe last two years and three years ago finished a modest 59^th.  Recent form is strong with a 6^that the Farmers and a couple of Top 5’s (lone slip-up was at the Sony where hemissed the cut).  I think Reed remainsextremely motivated due to the cheating scandal and if he can maintain thatchip on the shoulder mentality, he may be in contention on Sunday.  There are plenty of golfers in this rangethat will be higher owned than Patrick so this should be a safe leverage play.

Collin Morikawa (8100/10100) – This is the only golfer I’m selecting this week that has no PGA Tour experience with this course.  He has yet to miss a cut on the PGA Tour.  What Morikawa lacks in the driving distance he makes up for in great iron play, including long iron play.  I’m waiting for Morikawa to breakthrough and crack a Top 10 and I think he is building toward that and has a great chance this week. 

7k and above

Kevin Na (7600/9600) – Much like Leishman, this is another guy that I never have in my lineups.  But it’s very difficult to ignore what Na has done here and his recent form at this modest price.  Na’s last 3 years at this course are as follows:  33rd, 2nd and 4th.  That’s pretty eye-popping.  Add to that a 14^th last week at the Pro-Am and a 17^th at the Amex (missed cut in between those tournaments in Phoenix).

Max Homa (7500/9300) – This is a hot hand pick as Homa has made four cuts in a row (14^th, 6^th, 9^th, and 48^th).  He played at Riviera last year and finished a respectable 37^th.  The way this guy has been playing, his upside far exceeds 37^th.  I generally hate chasing points via playing the hot hand but he’s done it for long enough this season for me to have some confidence that it’s going to continue at Riviera.

Alex Noren (7300/9300) – Noren has gone largely under the radar this year and that’s probably deserved, but he has been well above average his last few tournaments (32^nd last week, 14th at the Amex and another 32nd at the Sony).  He checks boxes in Par 5 scoring, long Par 4 scoring, and scrambling.  It seems like some very good value here and should be relatively low owned in GPP’s.

Erik Van Rooyen (7000/8000) – South Africans have a built-in advantage with the Kikuyu fairways and rough.  If you checked Antonio’s model, Van Rooyen checks out on most of the key stats other than strokes gained around the green.  If he can get even moderately hot in that department, he should be able to cruise into day 3.

6k and above

J.T. Poston (6900/8800) – Has performed well here in the past (28th in 2019 and 17th in 2017.  Did not play in 2018).  He’s also played well and made the cut in his last two tournaments and finished a very respectable 11th at the Sentry.  At this range, I’m looking for golfers that have done it before and that are coming into the tournament with good form and Poston checks those boxes.

Patrick Rodgers (6800/8400) – We are desperately looking for value in this range via a made cut and an outside shot at a Top 20 finish and we have it here.  The last three years at Riviera Rodgers has finished 15^th, 26^th, and 22nd.  He’s coming off a missed cut at the Pro-Am but immediately prior to that he finished 16th in Phoenix and 9th at the Farmers.  He is long and somewhat erratic off the tee, but you can generally afford to be erratic off the tee on this track as evidenced by Rodgers recent finishes here.

Carlos Ortiz (6800/8400) – Ortiz has been popular in thepast and I’ve faded him every time.  Forthe most part, that has worked out for me. This time I’m going to bite. Ortiz has a great course history here with a 9^th last yearand a 26^th in 2016 (didn’t play in 2017 or 2018).  He’s also made 2 of his last 3 cuts includinga 25^th in Phoenix.  The keystats from Antonio’s model are impressive and they include a 5^thplace ranking in long Par 4’s.  Too muchvalue and upside to pass up here but I will say Ortiz is likely to be a littlechalky.  My ownership will be limitedrelative to the other golfers featured in this range.

Martin Laird (6500/8000) – Not a big Laird fan but I can’t ignore how well he’s done on this track: missed cut, 9th, 8^th, 11^th.  He’s also made cuts in his last two PGA tournaments.  Granted, those fields weren’t nearly as deep as this one but if you have to dip down to this range to make your lineup work, you may as well select a guy that has confidence that he can finish Top 10, something he has accomplished twice in the last 3 years. 

Aaron Baddeley – (6300/7800) – Solid course history herewhich includes 3 out of the last 4 made cuts and coming off 3 made cuts in arow including a 25^th last week at the Pro-Am.  Striking while the iron is hot here andhoping it stays hot.

Sample Lineup 1: JT, Leishman, Reed, Na, Noren, Rodgers

Sample Lineup 2:  Cantlay,Xander, Morikawa, Reed, Homa, Ortiz

Sample Lineup 3:  Rory, Cantlay, Morikawa, Noren, Poston, Baddeley

Don’t forget our Win Daily PGA podcast with Phil Naessens and Antonio D’Arcangelis.