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As you reviewed in Antonio’s article, this weekend we have a three-course rotation. I think it’s safe to say that nobody likes these types of tournaments, and coming off super bowl weekend, the PGA Tour would have been smart to fill the football void with a big-time tournament on a single course. Alas, they’re not smart, so here we are.
I will say this is a very interesting setup with the cut coming after Day 3. I think this gives us some liberty to really take some chances as we have a guarantee that our team will play at least three days and Sunday may not be easy if the wind picks up (meaning that scores may be unimpressive Sunday allowing lineups with cut players to cash). With that said, I’m really going to be gunning for some of the mid-range guys in my GPP lineups and I’m likely to fade a lot of the top tier. I’m really focusing on good iron play and guys who can hit these small greens from 125-150 yards out. This is without a doubt a second-shot golf course. Last week was a studs and duds construction but this week my lineups will be mostly middle-tier guys with some dabbling in the top and bottom tiers.
10k and above
Dustin Johnson – I’m not a big fan of the fact that he played in Saudi Arabia last week (where he finished 2nd) as the travel is going to be a small factor, but he is just too good at the PGA AT&T to ignore, and frankly, I don’t love anyone in the top tier from a value standpoint, so this is going to be my guy. This is not a smash spot for me, particularly with the travel, so I will only have Dustin in about 40% of my lineups. Yes, it is chalky, but just like last week, I’ll offset the chalk with plenty of contrarians as we get down into the middle tier. I should note that I think Casey and Cantlay will be popular plays and that’s partly why they are fades for me in GPP. I also think they are slightly overpriced (I’d say the same about Day and Snedeker as well but if I had to pick one of those four to excel I’d defer to Snedeker).
9k and above
Brendan Grace (9300/10600) – I don’t normally play Grace in lineups but I do like his recent form with a 9th at the PGA Phoenix and he has done well at AT&T the last two years. His driving and shots gained tee to green has been impressive lately. Please note that I do not love the 9k range and almost half of my lineups will have DJ with 8k and 7k players while completely skipping the 9k range. Other lineups will pepper in at least one of Grace and Hovland (below).
Victor Hovland (9100/10700) – I don’t think this will bea very popular pick in GPP or Cash as Hovland just hasn’t done much on the PGAtour lately, including a missed cut last week. He’s done a lot of traveling playing outside of the country over thelast couple of months but he played last week in Phoenix and I think he may beready to get back on track starting this week. Hovland’s second shot game is great and I should note he played atPebble last year as an amateur and he finished in a tie for 12th. This play may get you some ownership leverage(along with Grace) relative to the rest of the field near the top.
8k and above
Russell Knox (8600/10000) – we have a checkmark here with good iron play and good recent form. Knox is an ideal fit for this course. He’s not exciting and his upside appears to be short of a winner circle finish but he should stack up points for your GPP teams round by round.
Max Homa (8300/9800) – I want to be careful with this one because I feel like I’m chasing points with this pick, but it’s very hard to ignore Homa’s recent form which includes back to back top 10 finishes and three made cuts in a row. He also won the PGA Wells Fargo last year so you know he has the appropriate upside. Add to that a 10th place finish last year at AT&T and it almost seems too good to be true at this price. And quite frankly, it just may be. But I will sprinkle Homa into some lineups regardless as I don’t want to be blind to the numbers. Likely to be a popular pick in this range so you’ll need to pick up ownership leverage elsewhere.
Adam Hadwin (8100/9900) – I told you to fire on him lastweek and he finished a respectable 40th considering he hadn’t playedmuch recently. Now that he’s warmed up,I see no reason not to have him in plenty of lineups as he can putt and he’sgreat with his irons.
7k and above
Tom Hoge (7900/9800) – I tried to get everyone to jam Hoge into their lineups last week and it definitely worked out for you if you did. This guy has finished Top 25 in the last four PGA events and that includes two Top 10 finishes. With that kind of recent history, you would think Hoge would be straight chalk but he actually has a relatively poor history at this event. I’m going to take recent history over course history and fire on Hoge in plenty of lineups. Iron play and putting have been too good and he is also solid on Poa Annua greens.
Scott Piercy (7800/9600) – Great course history here with three PGA made cuts in a row including a Top 10 finish last year. His recent form checks out with three made cuts in his last three events including a 6th place finish last week at Sony. His strokes gained approach game is strong which is important here.
Cameron Tringale (7000/8500) – He’s coming off a missed cut at the Waste Management Phoenix Open but that’s largely because his putter let him down. The good news is Poa Annua is his best putting surface, he’s a great ball striker and he has had a decent form with back to back made cuts immediately prior to the Phoenix. Add to that back to back made cuts in the last two years here at the AT&T and you’ve got some value with Tringale.
Matthew NeSmith (7100/8400) – no tournament history here but how do five cuts in a row sound. Does it sound good? Yea, it sounds good. I’ll grab the value and lob this guy into some lineups and hope to pick up some ownership leverage as NeSmith doesn’t appear to be a popular value play on the tour quite yet.
Nick Taylor (7000/8700) – coming off a made cut last week and a good course history here. I’ve got a soft spot for Taylor and I’ve seen him have some big-time moments. In a relatively weak field, I like his value here.
6k and above
Doc Redman (6700/7900) – three made cuts in a row and hisshots gained tee to green numbers check out. He’s also been good off the tee, which is not critical here by anymeans, but notable for a guy who is only priced at 6700.
Sebastian Cappelen (6700/8100) – missed cut last week buthe didn’t play poorly overall. He’sgreat on Par 5’s and he’s great on Poa Annua greens. His recent form has been very good and wehave some upside here at this price.
Sample Lineup 1: DJ,Hoge, Knox, NeSmith, Piercy, Tringale
Sample Lineup 2: Grace, Hovland, Hadwin, Hoge, Knox, Redman
Sample Lineup 3: DJ,Hovland, Hoge, NeSmith, Tringale, Taylor
