Sia 
The year’s second major is upon us with the PGA Championship. This course is a 7876 Par 72 which is extremely long. Add to that the wind could be a big factor all week and you’re looking at tough scoring conditions. I’ll be focused on players with good long and short games and I will be keying in on OTT, APP (including from longer proximities, i.e. 175-200+) and ARG. More on course dynamics and SG metrics on our PGA Livestream and Podcast tomorrow at 8:00 EST. Now let’s get to the PGA Championship picks.
Rory Mcilroy (11500) – Tweaked his game a bit with the help of coach Steve Cowen and now looks to be in really good shape for a major takedown (pun obviously intended). Even when Rory was allegedly playing poorly, he was pretty great OTT (rates out 6th over the last 50 rounds and is longest in driving distance in the field over last 24 rounds) and the rest of his game appears to be catching up.
Xander Schauffele (9600) – He checks all the boxes with a great all around game and has an excellent track record in majors. Xander isn’t as elite in any one metric relative to some of the other guys in this range, but he’s good at everything, and that’s what I’m looking for this week.
Viktor Hovland (9300) – Because of his anticipated popularity, I may end up liking Hovland more as a cash play rather than a tournament play, but we will need to wait and see projected ownership. Hovland has had some bouts of bad play lately but overall he checks all the boxes other than some potential issues with ARG.
Daniel Berger (8700) – I’ve never really been on team Berger, but I can’t deny how good he has been in terms of managing great finishes. He’s been hovering around the Top 20 with finishes and with OTT and T2G metrics. He doesn’t hit the ball a long way like I’d prefer this week, but I’m willing to overlook that. It’s not sexy, but it’s solid at this price.
Abraham Ancer (7900) – Ancer is another elite ball striker who has been piling up great finishes. He’s Top 20 OTT over the last 50 rounds and rates out 2nd over the last 12 rounds. The T2G game checks out too as he is Top 30 over last 50 rounds and 7th over the last 12 rounds.
Paul Casey (7700) – Not many flaws in the game for Paul Casey. He doesn’t do anything particularly elite but he’s above average in pretty much everything. He is as balanced as they come and I consider him a ‘safer’ play among the 7k range for the PGA Championship.
Keegan Bradley (7300) – We get into some scary territory down in this range, but I’m happy to lean on Keegan as the ball striking checks out. He has been a little shaky over the last 12 rounds OTT but over the last 50 rounds (and over his career as a whole) he’s been great OTT and APP. The ARG game is good as well and it’ll just come down to the putter.
Charley Hoffman (7300) – He has been very good T2G and presents as a great value at this price. Hits it long enough off the tee to be alright with the length of this course (305 yards last 24 rounds. My preference is for the driving distance to be 300+ this week).
Si Woo Kim (7200) – A Pete Dye specialist who checks most of the boxes as he’s been great T2G (15th over last 50 rounds and 18th over last 12) and his ARG game is very good. This feels like great value.
Jason Kokrak (7100) – I almost wrote up Matt Jones at this exact price, and I do like MJ, but I like Kokrak a bit better. The ball striking has been great, but the ARG game can give him some issues. Either way, I’ll take the upside with the ball striking and the good recent finishing positions.
Stewart Cink (6900) – The length of this course shouldn’t bother Cink (Top 10 OTT last 24 rounds) and I think he’ll be able to grind out a made cut with how well he’s been playing lately. Beware of an ARG game that is less than stellar.
Charl Schwartzel (6800) – I was all over him last week and it really paid off. He’s been striking the ball very well and has the short game to check all the boxes. Great value here.
Secret Weapon (under 7k/under 5% owned) – Current record is 35-7. See you in Discord.
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