Phil Naessens 
RING THE BELL! THE NEW YORK PROP EXCHANGE IS OPEN FOR BUSINESS! Are you ready for your N.Y. Prop Exchange Week 5.1 Prop picks? We had a profitable Week 4, cashing our two +EV bets. TNF didn’t go as planned; Bad Andy showed up, Ross went down with an injury & Eifert dropped our cashing reception twice. Such is life in the world of gambling, which is also why risk management is so important (I’ve attached some thoughts on strategy below today’s pick). Due to line movements, lineup changes, injures, etc make sure that you’re checking my Twitter @MLBMovingAvg & my author page periodically before game times https://windailysports.com/author/mlbmovingavg/ for new breakdowns, plays and additions to the weekend’s bet slip. Thanks so much for subscribing, interacting and following along.
N.Y. Prop Exchange Week 5.1 Pick
Aaron Jones, RB GB Over 3.5 Rec (+133)
Without Jamaal Williams, Aaron Jones took every snap at RB and that’s certainly expected to continue this weekend. He totaled six catches on seven targets (only 37 yds) last weekend. Green Bay is extending their failed run game between the tackles by using short passes out of the backfield. Dallas is just outside the Top 10 in passing yards allowed, but they are 26th in completions allowed and many of those are being surrendered to RBs. The Cowboys are in the NFL’s bottom three in targets, receptions, and yards allowed to RBs through the air.
Prop Strategy for Aaron Jones
I don’t generally do “whale picks” or “max system plays”. Being this is the first year for the New York Prop Exchange, I’m staying flexible in my approach. Betting on football is unlike betting on baseball in the opportunities it allows, and this presents a great spot to really turn a nice profit. Where I split a unit on betting up the board in the past, I think in this case I’m going to put 1% of my stack on 4+ Rec (+133) and then split another unit among the remaining bets. This is likely going to be a highly contested conference game, with Jones seeing every single snap. The Cowboys most glaring weakness on defense could translate into a huge payday for us.
General Risk Strategy
I often get questions about betting strategy and it all starts with proactively determining how much I’m going to bet and then working backwards when applying that to my plays on a percent basis.
My daily allotted risk (R) shifts with performance. I have found that reducing bets during down times helps greatly in protecting capital. To be more specific, my standard is a risk of R=1% total stack. After a winning day it goes to 1.5%, and caps at a max 2% after two wins in a row. I do the opposite as well. I remain at 1% if there are two losing days, and reduce to a capped minimum of 0.5% for the third.
Daily Betting Strategies
I’d like to share a few of my fallback plans on playing strategy in case I don’t get to a specific plan on a given night. If a bet is at or close to even, bet it straight. We want to avoid pairing action as much as possible. Sometimes the odds make this unavoidable. Whenever I have two heavy favorite picks, I will pair them. If I have three favorites, I play a small ABC F5ML parlay, and then play all three F5RLs straight, but of course it always depends on the specific odds that day. I do not like to pay any juice beyond -200. I would never play those straight. We must pair, or fade. Any team can win on any day.
Whenever I have four picks that come with juice, I’m usually going to play a Round Robin where 3 of 4 hits will guarantee a nice percentage profit, and all 4 is huge night on a relatively small risk. I also always take a small percentage of daily risk on a four game parlay.
If there are ever more than four plays, I try to compartmentalize the picks, and then follow one of the plans above. A good place to start is to play any underdogs straight and then either pair by length, or by time of day. It’s always a good idea to separate the later games on tickets to allow for chances to hedge and guarantee profit.
Betting Tips
Tailor your game to your own account and expectations. I bet small relative to stack, and bet smart. If you can’t make money with $100, what makes you think you’ll make money with $10,000?
I never risk more than 1% on any outcome, and never bet more than 2% on any given night. I scale those numbers down into losing streaks, and increase them again as the wins roll in.
John L. prepares these articles in his personal capacity. The opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not reflect the views or opinions of Win Daily or any of the employees and/or executives of Win Daily. All data and information provided on this site is for informational purposes only. Win Daily makes no representations as to accuracy, completeness, currentness, suitability, or validity of any information on this site and will not be liable for any errors, omissions, or delays in this information or any losses, injuries, or damages arising from its display or use. All information is provided on an as-is basis.
As always, special thanks to https://fangraphs.com & https://pff.com for all the great statistical work that they do.
