Joel Bartilotta 
Today’s article is going to focus on tonight’s 5 game NHL main slate on DraftKings and FanDuel. With the trade deadline just days away, we’re going to want to keep a continued look at lineups up until the game starts.
Let’s dig in and see if we can make some money.
Goaltending
I’ll start by saying goalie tonight is horrendous. No goalie is safe, but we do need to pick one, so let’s dive in and try to find one.
Andre Vasilevskiy ($8.2K DK/$8.5k FD) vs. New York Rangers – I used a goalie against the Rangers last weekend and it ended up burning me as the Rangers exploded for a bunch of goals. I just don’t see it happening tonight vs. a much better goalie in Vasilevskiy and a much better defensive team in the Lightning.
After a little bit of a rough stretch for Vasilevskiy, he has back to back games giving up just 1 goal in each. Rangers struggle to score goals at time, as evidenced by their 1 goal game against the Islanders on Thursday. Look for them to struggle again tonight against a stout team and goalie.
Alex Nedeljkovic ($7.6k DK/$7.3k FD) vs. Seattle Kraken – This is a high risk, high reward pick tonight. It’s tough to stomach playing Nedeljkovic, but he gets a great matchup and showed some life in his last game against the Canucks with a shutout. Seattle is a team that really struggles to score goals.
Over the last month they’re averaging just 2.25 goals per game. Not a good mark and it’s something that we can be somewhat confident in attacking. While this season has been a struggle for Nedeljkovic, he got back on track the other night and the matchup tonight should help build his confidence back up.
Stacks
Nashville 1 (Johansen, Forsberg, Duchene) vs. Toronto
The hockey world has so far fallen in love with Kallgren. Through his first 3 games played, he’s been “brilliant” allowing just 3 goals. While he’s been great, tonight will be his first taste of road hockey. He also has some metrics that show he may be playing with fire. So far, he’s giving up a ton of rebounds. At some point, giving up that many rebounds is going to bite him.
I do think that Nashville gets to him tonight and this top line is where I want to go. The duo of Duchene and Forsberg has been great of late, with 9 goals and 20 points in their last 5. They are clicking right now and with the matchup tonight, they’re my top stack. I know Vegas has the Predators at just 2.25 goals tonight, but they are wrong on this one.
Montreal 1 (Suzuki, Caufield, Armia) + Petry vs. Ottawa
Ottawa will be giving Forsberg a breather tonight and going with Gustavsson in net. On the year, Gustavsson has a poultry 3.68 goals against average. He’s played sparing over the last few months, but when he’s been in net, it’s been good for the other team.
Caufield and Suzuki have been playing very well together recently. Over their last 5 games, they’ve combined for 8 goals and 12 points. They also have more 30 scoring chances between them. On DK, Caufield is still somehow below $5k and it just seems like a mispricing. He has 3 straight games of at least 18 DK points and if he continues with that tonight like he should, he makes for a great value. Another great value on this Canadiens squad is Jeff Petry at just $4.1k. He’s been over 14 DK points in each of his last 4 thanks to his shots plus blocks average of 6.4. My core with the Habs will be Suzuki, Caufield, and Petry.
Detroit 1 (Larkin, Namestnikov, Raymond) vs. Seattle
In his last 7 games of action, Grubauer hasn’t given up less than 3 goals in any game. On the year he has a goals-against average over 3.20. That’s a number I really want to attack tonight. It’s been a bit of a struggle for Larkin of late as he just 1 goal in his last 10 games. What has me motivated to play him tonight is that he’s still shooting the puck a healthy amount, with an average of 2.5 per game over his last 5. I think he bounces back in a big way tonight vs. a poor team. I plan on pairing him with Raymond who is having a pretty successful rooking campaign, with 19 goals and 27 assists. Over his last 5, Raymond has 3 goals and stands a very good chance to add to that number tonight. Detroit has the potential in this matchup to be one of the highest-scoring teams on the slate.
Toronto is always in play, but just not one of my top stacks against a team Nashville. Saros struggled against the Philly the other night, but that’s not the norm for him. His superb goaltending can limit the upside of the Maple Leafs.
Other stacks (Ott 1 and 2, Mon 3, Tor 1 and 2, Cgy 1)
Top Defenseman
- Jeff Petry – $4.1k on DK – 14 shots and 18 blocks over his last 5, lock him in
- Roman Josi – Playing unreal right now, 10 assists in his last 5. If you can afford him, play him.
- Mattias Ekholm – $3.7k on DK and has 16 shots over his last 5 to go with 5 blocks. Great Value
- Adam Fox
- Travis Hamonic
- Moritz Seider
- TJ Brodie
Vegas
Vegas has Nashville at just 2.25 goals tonight. They should smash that number
Summary
Tonight’s looking like a fun slate. On some of these expected goal numbers, I really think Vegas got it wrong. 2.25 for Nashville vs. Toronto and 2.25 for Detroit vs. Seattle are numbers that just seem way off.
Make sure to use our optimizer when setting lineups.
Good luck and hope to see you in the green!
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