The Hot Shot makes a rare Tuesday appearance as Jon Love is unfortunately on the bereavement list. Be sure to send him your best wishes. With ten games on tonight’s slate, it’s time to get down to business. Aside from reading the article, don’t forget to check out our NHL Projection Model which is available every morning.
10/25 NHL Main Slate of Games – Beginning 7 p.m. ET
*All odds and player pricing below have been obtained from DraftKings and are accurate as of the time of writing*
Dallas Stars (+125) at Boston Bruins (-145) – 6.5 Projected Goal Total
New Jersey Devils (-105) at Detroit Red Wings (-115) – 6.5 Projected Goal Total
Florida Panthers (-245) at Chicago Blackhawks (+205) – 7 Projected Goal Total
Arizona Coyotes (+190) at Columbus Blue Jackets (-225) – 6.5 Projected Goal Total
Colorado Avalanche (-115) at New York Rangers (-105) – 6.5 Projected Goal Total
Minnesota Wild (-175) at Montreal Canadiens (+150) – 6.5 Projected Goal Total
Buffalo Sabres (+100) at Seattle Kraken (-120) – 6.5 Projected Goal Total
Tampa Bay Lightning (-115) at Los Angeles Kings (-105) – 6.5 Projected Goal Total
Vegas Golden Knights (-190) at San Jose Sharks (+160) – 6.5 Projected Goal Total
Pittsburgh Penguins (+135) at Calgary Flames (-155) – 6.5 Projected Goal Total
10/25 NHL Favorite Popular Line
Florida Two “Sam Bennett ($5,600), Matthew Tkachuk ($7,800), Rudolph Balcers ($2,900)“
The Florida Panthers are the biggest favorite on the slate at -245, despite playing on the road. In part, it is because they are visiting the Chicago Blackhawks. The Hawks are off to a deceptive 3-2 start. However, aside from the Seth Jones addition, they have been depleted of much of their prior talent across the last few seasons. Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews have also lost a step as they continue to age. Furthermore, this is the highest total game on the slate “7” with every other game all set at 6.5. It is a safe assumption that we can expect some goals in this one.
If choosing between the Panthers’ top two lines both have two skaters on Florida’s top power-play unit. Nevertheless, thus far, the second line has put up much better numbers than the first line, as they’re currently tied for a league-leading five full-line goals “as opposed to two”. There is $1,700 savings to be had using Sam Bennett over top-line center Aleksandr Barkov and can apply it towards Matthew Tkachuk, an ostensibly superior player to Sam Reinhart. Finally, Rudolfs Balcers gives us a deep discount at $2,900, just $400 over the minimum salary.
10/25 NHL Favorite Contrarian Line
Columbus One “Gustav Nyquist ($4,100), Boone Jenner ($6,100), Johnny Gaudreau ($7,300)”
Aside from Johnny Gaudreau a.k.a. Johnny Hockey, even in a plus matchup, I wouldn’t expect the Blue Jackets to be “chalk”. That said, as -225 money line favorites, hosting the hapless Arizona Coyotes, Columbus is the second largest favorite on the slate. There’s a 6.5 total here much like in every other game, but most of that should be going the Blue Jackets’ way. All three skaters have additional correlation as members of Columbus’ top power-play unit. Their four full-line goals to date this season aren’t too shabby either, tying them for second in the NHL with nine other lines.
10/25 NHL Additional Lines to Consider
Florida One – Aleksandr Barkov “$7,600”, Sam Reinhart “$6,000”, Carter Verheaghe “$3,600”
Vegas One – Jack Eichel “$5,900”, Chandler Stephenson “$3,500”, Mark Stone “$4,500” (CHEAP)
Defensemen and Goalies
Defenseman “high-end” – Brandon Montour – Florida – Montour has moved up to the first line with Aaron Ekblad’s injury, should see extra minutes, plus he gets time on the second power-play unit. He’s listed here as high-end but salary-wise he is a good $2,000 below some other expensive defensemen.
“mid-range” – Mikhail Sergachev – Tampa Bay – For $4,100, Sergachev has four assists in six games so good value for what many would really consider a low-end price.
“low-end” – Damon Severson – New Jersey – Severson is blocking shots as well as grabbing assists so not a bad punt for $3,300.
Goalie “high-end” – Adin Hill – Vegas Golden Knights – Excellent 2.00 GAA to start the year and a soft matchup against the Sharks.
“mid-range” – Andre Vasilevskiy- Tampa Bay – It’s not tremendous savings but this is the guy widely considered the world’s best goaltender, not much more to say.
“low-end” – Alex Stalock – Chicago – Very strong 2.14 GAA and to expect him to face plenty of shots, that’s perhaps a huge understatement. He is definitely not a cash play but Stalock has tournament-winning upside if you’re fading Florida.
10/25 NHL Best Bet
Boston Bruins 60 Minute Moneyline (+105) – DraftKings – 1 Unit – The Dallas Stars are off to a strong start so far this season but the Bruins seem to be money at home.
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