NHL DFS Hot Shot for DraftKings and FanDuel (Feb. 14)

This article focuses on 2/14 NHL Picks for both DraftKings and FanDuel Sportsbooks and FanDuel and DraftKings Daily Fantasy. We analyze tournament tactics, statistics, pricing, and attempt to tackle this highly variable Daily Fantasy format, so that we can gain an edge on the field at large. Full goal scoring odds and rankings for each position for both sites, are available below.

Sunday 2/14 NHL Slate and DFS Gameplan

Welcome back to the Hot Shot! We have a tiny two game Sunday slate to break down. Unfortunately, there is a good amount of time between both games with the first beginning 3 p.m. ET and the second 7 p.m. ET. However, aside from goalie confirmation, there should not be a lot to worry about at night. Nathan MacKinnon is the only player with an injury consideration and had practiced in full this past Thursday.

Notable Goal Scoring Odds

Note: All odds listed +300 or below. All odds are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, as of the time of writing.

Washington Capitals (-125) at Pittsburgh Penguins (+108) – 6.5 Goal Projected Total – Alex Ovechkin (+107), Jake Guentzel (+133), Sidney Crosby (+148), Evgeni Malkin (+170), Bryan Rust (+188), Tom Wilson (+215), Jakub Vrana (+230), Jason Zucker (+235), T.J. Oshie (+240), Kasperi Kapanen (+265), Evgeny Kuznetsov (+270), Kris Letang (+310), Nicklas Backstrom (+310), John Carlson (+360)

Colorado Avalanche (+108) at Las Vegas Golden Knights (-127) – 6 Goal Projected Total – Max Pacioretty (+155), Nathan MacKinnon (+155), Mikko Rantanen (+185), Mark Stone (+215), Reilly Smith (+230), Jonathan Marchessault (+240), William Karlsson (+255), Nazem Kadri (+255), Gabriel Landeskog (+255), Andre Burakovsky (+285), Chandler Stephenson (+290), Alex Tuch (+310), Cody Glass (+330), Brandon Saad (+340), Alex Pietrangelo (+360)

2/14 NHL Best Odds

* John Carlson to Score (+360) – 0.25 Units – Odds at DraftKings Sportsbook*

DraftKings | FanDuel

The Betting Game Plan

John Carlson has four goals through twelve games and is far more likely to bag an assist. Nonetheless, his +360 goal odds are fairly kind, so I think it’s worth a stab here.

2/14 NHL FanDuel Rankings

Centers

1. Nathan MacKinnon – Colorado – $8,400
2. Nicklas Backstrom – Washington – $6,400
3. Nazeem Kadri – Colorado – $6,300
4. Sidney Crosby – Pittsburgh – $7,700
5. Evgeni Malkin – Pittsburgh – $7,400
6. William Karlsson – Las Vegas – $5,200

Wingers

1. Alex Ovechkin – Washington – $8,400
2. Max Pacioretty – Las Vegas – $7,900
3. Jake Guentzel – Pittsburgh – $6,800
4. Bryan Rust – Pittsburgh – $6,200
5. Tom Wilson – Washington – $5,200
6. Jakub Vrana – Washington – $4,300
7. Reilly Smith – Las Vegas – $4,500
8. Alex Tuch – Las Vegas – $4,400

Defense

1. Alec Martinez – Las Vegas – $4,300
2. Devon Toews – Colorado – $4,700
3. Kris Letang – Pittsburgh – $5,700
4. Alex Pietrangelo – Las Vegas – $6,400
5. Cale Makar – Colorado – $6,300
6. John Carlson – Washington – $7,200

Goalies

1. Ilya Samsonov/Vitek Vanecek – Washington – $7,500
2. Casey DeSmith – Pittsburgh – $7,300
3. Marc-Andre Fleury – Las Vegas – $8,800 “Unlikely to start on a back to back, Oscar Dansk probable”

2/14 NHL DraftKings Rankings

Centers

1. Evgeni Malkin – Pittsburgh – $5,000
2. Sidney Crosby – Pittsburgh – $5,900
3. Nathan MacKinnon – Colorado – $8,000
4. Nicklas Backstrom – Washington – $6,400
5. Evgeny Kuznetsov – Washington – $5,400
6. William Karlsson – Las Vegas – $4,500

Wingers

1. Alex Ovechkin – Washington – $7,800
2. Jake Guentzel – Pittsburgh – $5,500
3. Bryan Rust – Pittsburgh – $5,800
4. Max Pacioretty – Las Vegas – $7,600
5. Jason Zucker – Pittsburgh – $3,500
6. Kasperi Kapanen – Pittsburgh – $3,300

Defense

1. Kris Letang – Pittsburgh – $4,700
2. John Carlson – Washington – $6,200
3. Alex Pietrangelo – Las Vegas – $6,000
4. Alec Martinez – Las Vegas – $5,600
5. Cale Makar – Colorado – $6,700
6. Michael Matheson – Pittsburgh – $2,500

Goalies

1. Phillip Grubauer – Colorado – $6,900
2. Marc-Andre Fleury – Las Vegas – $8,200 “Unlikely to start on a back to back, Oscar Dansk probable”

Top Point Per Dollar Line “DraftKings”

Pittsburgh One “Sidney Crosby, Bryan Rust, and Jake Guentzel”, Kris Letang – Defenseman Add-On

Someone on the Pittsburgh Penguins must’ve slept with the DraftKings pricing analyst’s mother. There is no rationale or explanation for why they are all discounted so heavily there, as opposed to FanDuel. However, we might as well take what they give us and stack up the Penguins top line. The three listed above plus Kris Letang all have additional full correlation on the first power play. The dirt cheap second line is viable as well. If you really want to go all in, you can even jam in Evgeni Malkin and stack the entire Pittsburgh top power play unit.

Top Point Per Dollar Line “FanDuel”

Washington One “Alex Ovechkin, Niklas Backstrom, and Tom Wilson”, Defenseman Add-On – John Carlson

If playing on both sites, there is no point rolling with the Penguins on FanDuel, as their DraftKings pricing is far too tasty. Therefore, let’s turn our attention to the other side of that game in Washington. Alex Ovechkin has the top goal scoring odds on the slate and we also get a discount piece in Tom Wilson. When you then factor in Nicklas Backstrom’s moderate salary, it provides us with a fair amount of wiggle room. I don’t recommend necessarily adding John Carlson at his price, but if going all in for correlation, it makes some sense.

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