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We have arrived at the two week mark! There are just two full weeks left in the regular season for NHL. Tonight’s slate is just a two-gamer, so tonight’s Forecheck is going to look a little different. Instead of our traditional article, this will be a game by game breakdown. Let’s find the best NHL DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel. Good luck!
Slate Notes
Two games makes a tough NHL DFS slate, no doubt about it. You will have to nail it to have success, and there are a couple of approaches. The first approach is an onslaught stack lineup. This approach is where you pick your favorite team and play as many players as possible from the lineup. Be sure to get some exposure to depth players to make your lineup unique.
The second approach is a mini game stack approach, where you pick the highest scoring game and stack it, and fill in with your favorites from the second game. Your goalie will also come from the second game, correlating with those favorites.
As much as possible, you want to still avoid stacking against your goalie in your lineup. Negative correlation is never good, no matter the size of the slate.
If you are uncomfortable playing the two game slate, you can attack the showdown slate using our NHL DFS Showdown Strategy Guide for guidance.
Remember, volatility is a big part of these very small slates, so be sure to play a little lighter than normal, and we do NOT recommend playing cash games tonight. Of course, you could fade such a small and volatile slate, but where’s the fun in that?!
Game 1: New York Islanders @ Montreal Canadiens
Implied Vegas Totals: NYI 3.1 / MON 2.6
Tale of the Tape: The Islanders come into this matchup 2-3 over their last five games, while Montreal is a measly 1-4. Tonight will be an emotional matchup for both sides of this game. On the Islanders’ side, a legend of their franchise, Mike Bossy, passed away today. On the Canadiens’ side of things, Carey Price returns to the crease for the first time in almost two years away from the game. More on that later.
The Islanders are the better team here, and on paper, they should come out of this one with a win. However, they have not been very good on the road, and they are a long shot for a wild card berth in the playoffs. This game is almost meaningless, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t value in playing it for NHL DFS purposes.
Montreal could surprise us here and ride an emotional wave to a win. We will definitely want some Habs in our lineups tonight.
Goalie Matchup: Semyon Varlamov (probable) vs. Carey Price (CONFIRMED!!)
There is a lot of importance to the goalie matchup here. Carey Price returns to the Montreal crease tonight after taking time away from the game. This is a massive development, and as a fan of the game, it is SO NICE to see him battle his way back. He was dealing with a ton, and to make a return to the game on home ice is a huge deal! The Montreal crowd will definitely welcome him back with wide open arms tonight, and this should be an emotional game for him.
From a DFS standpoint, it is hard to say how Carey will look tonight. He is worth a shot in a couple of lineups thanks to his raw talent, but who knows how much rust will be there. This is a great time for the Habs to ease him back into normal game play, with their season officially not moving into the postseason.
Varlamov should get the start for the Isles, as they are on a back to back, and Sorokin went last night. Varly has had a rough go of it recently, sporting a whopping 4.58 GAA over his last five games.
Lines to Target
NYI1 – Brock Nelson/Anders Lee/Anthony Beauvillier/Noah Dobson: The Isles’ top line is definitely in play here. The Canadiens don’t do too much in the way of hard matching, so they will have their chances.
MON1 – Nick Suzuki/Cole Caufield/Josh Anderson/Jeff Petry: The same thing goes for this line, as there is not a lot of matching that is done. The top line will see their chances as well, and have a slight advantage tonight.
Others to Consider: MON3, NYI2 are both in play in this game as well, but the top lines should be the ones to shine tonight.
Value
Jake Evans (C)
JG Pageau (W)
Chris Wideman (D)
Rem Pitlick (W)
Alexander Romanov (D)
Game 2: Winnipeg Jets @ Florida Panthers
Implied Vegas Totals: WPG 2.5 / FLA 4.2
Tale of the Tape: This game has a lot more as far as meaning tonight. The Jets essentially have to win out to make the playoffs, as they are in a very tight race in the West. The Jets are also missing a couple of key players on offense, which hurts them, but they will still be playing aggressively. On the other side, the Panthers are vying for the President’s Trophy (most points in the league) and the top spot in the East for the playoffs. They have already clinched a playoff spot.
Look for this game to be a little higher paced than the other game. Winnipeg had a game cancelled the other night and come into this well rested. With their playoff hopes on the line for the next two weeks, they will be playing to win. This game is almost going to have a playoff feel, and frankly, it could go either way. The Jets come in playing .500 hockey, while the Panthers have not lost in their last five games, and have been scoring like crazy. If you can find the value, this is the game to stack.
Goalie Matchup: Connor Hellebuyck (Likely) vs. Sergei Bobrovsky (Confirmed)
The goalies in this game have been…well…not great. Both Bob and Helly are sporting a GAA over 3 in their last five games, with Bob being all the way up at 3.71. It will be hard to trust the goalies in this game, and with firepower on either side, this one could get wild. These are your riskier goalies, and Bob probably gets the slight advantage here, but it is hard to trust.
Lines to Target
FLA1 – Aleksander Barkov/Anthony Duclair/Carter Verhaeghe/Ben Chiarot: This top line is almost always in play for the Cats. Tonight is no different, and they will likely be heavily owned.
FLA2 – Sam Bennett/Claude Giroux/Jonathan Huberdeau: On paper, this line has a slightly better matchup than the top line, but they are both in play. Consider a power play look here to blend your exposure.
WPG1 – Pierre-Luc Dubois/Blake Wheeler/Kyle Connor/Josh Morrissey: With the depleted lineup, this is THE line for the Jets. They are going to have tons of ice time and they will be relied upon heavily to carry the offense.
Others to Consider: FLA3, WPG3
Value
Radko Gudas (D)
Brandon Montour (D)
Nate Schmidt (D)
Neal Pionk (D)
Morgan Barron (W)
Anton Lundell (C)
Carter Verhaeghe (W)
Player Props
This is a newly added section to the Friday Night Forecheck, where we will highlight some NHL player props that we like for the upcoming NHL slate.
Aleksander Barkov (FLA): anytime goal scorer
Kyle Connor (WPG): anytime goal scorer
Josh Morrissey (WPG): over 0.5 points
Cole Caufield (MON): over 0.5 points
Make sure to hop in our Expert Discord Chat for FREE! Jon and the NHL team will be there answering questions right up until lock! Be sure to be on the look out for future articles at https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-hockey/
All line combinations are courtesy of www.dailyfaceoff.com, and any advanced rates referenced in the above article are pulled from www.naturalstattrick.com.
