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It’s finally here!!! The Stanley Cup Final kicks off tonight at 8pm Eastern, and will features two premier teams in the Lightning and Avalanche. Let’s find the best NHL DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel. Good luck!
Slate Notes
Game one of the Stanley Cup Final is upon us, and this should be an AMAZING series! The Avalanche and the Lightning are both very, very good teams, and this one should be fun to watch. The Avalanche are looking to win their first Cup since 2001, and the Lightning are trying to make it THREE STRAIGHT.
Fun fact – this is the first series in Stanley Cup history where neither of the teams’ names end in the letter ‘S’.
If you haven’t already, make sure you check out our NHL DFS Showdown Strategy Guide for guidance on building your lineups for tonight.
Tampa Bay Lightning @ Colorado Avalanche
Implied Vegas Totals: TBL 2.8 / COL 3.4
Tale of the Tape:
Two powerhouse teams will clash for the Stanley Cup. We have been waiting for Colorado to get to this point for a few years now, as they have had a very, very solid regular season team. It was just a matter of time before they finally got to the Final again, and they are hard to argue against. They have a great roster up and down, and they are one of the more feared teams in the league. Loaded with talent, they have a very, very good shot at winning this thing.
Nazem Kadri is likely going to be out for a while, even though he did skate on Sunday without a stick. It is hard to imagine that he will be able to suit up for a game if he can’t (or won’t) carry a stick post-surgery. Darcy Kuemper should be good to go, but the Avalanche will likely not be forthcoming with any lineup information.
How do you argue the Lightning at this point? They have made it to their third Stanley Cup Final in a row, and are poised to win it yet again. They have taken a slightly tougher path to the the Final, losing five games, compared to the Avalanche only losing 2 games thus far in the playoffs. Tampa is dealing with potential health issues, as Brayden Point has been questionable to come back for what seems like 3 weeks. He did skate with the second line and was a bumper on the top power play in practice, so he should be in the lineup tonight.
With Point back, and questions around the goalie situation in Colorado, we are likely going to have to wait until warm-ups for a finalized lineup, and even those will be fluid throughout the game. Keep an eye on news through the day, and today might be a good day to wait for confirmations to build.
Goalie Matchup
Andrei Vasilevskiy vs. Darcy Kuemper
It’s hard to say anything bad about either of these goalies. Vasilevskiy is arguably the best in the world, and Darcy has made a real name for himself in Colorado. Something to consider here, though, is that both of these guys have great defenses in front of them, which helps more and more as we get deeper in the playoffs.
Against Edmonton, Kuemper was hurt, and did not play the last two games of the series. However, he was healthy for game four, and backed up Pavel Francouz. With a comfortable lead in the series and Francouz playing well, the Avalanche had no reason to play Kuemper and risk the long term. Kuemper was a solid goalie for the Avs throughout the year and definitely through the playoffs. However, he does sometimes face some issues with consistency. He won’t be able to be inconsistent in this series, as the Lightning will make him pay big time.
Line Matching Notes
With this game being in Colorado, we have to go by what the Avalanche do with their line matching.
Top Line
It’s MacKinnon vs. the opposing top line for Colorado, so expect the MacKinnon line to take on the Kucherov/top line for most of the game tonight. The stars will be out in this one! Best on best.
Second Line
Kadri usually takes the second opposing line, but not as a hard match. This trend should continue, even without Kadri, so we can expect the second vs second lines tonight, whatever they may be. The Avalanche second line should see a good portion of the Tampa second and some of the third lines tonight.
Third Line
The third Avalanche line generally doesn’t match anyone in particular, but their other matching schemes set this line up against the third and fourth lines of the opposition.
Fourth Line
The same thing as the third line goes here, as they will mix and match depth on depth.
Put it all Together
On paper, the Lightning top line has an advantage over the Avalanche,
Lines to Target
TBL1 – Steven Stamkos/Ondrej Palat/Nikita Kucherov/Victor Hedman: You need the stars in the playoffs, and this is a star studded line. Kucherov and Stamkos are the priority here, and keep in mind that Hedman shoots the puck a LOT.
COL1 – Nathan MacKinnon/Gabriel Landeskog/Valeri Nichushkin/Cale Makar: Top line, star studded, and they are the core of the offense.
COL2 – Mikko Rantanen/Andre Burakovsky/Artturi Lehkonen: The second Colorado line can be very different and has a good opportunity tonight.
The Build Options
These are build recommendations based on the NHL Showdown Strategy Guide
Tampa Bay Lightning Power Play – Point or Kucherov captain (Point should be different as captain, with the time off he has had)
Vasilevskiy captain/TBL2 stack – Depending on the way the Lightning line up, this is a great leverage play, and could prove to be optimal if the Avalanche come out flat
Colorado Avalanche Power Play – MacKinnon at captain will be chalk, but you can also use Makar or Rantanen at captain for a really nice GPP look
Value Plays
These are value plays that offer upside at a very low salary
Pat Maroon (W)
Andrew Cogliano (W) – if healthy and playing
Andre Burakovsky (W)
Alex Killorn (W)
Bowen Byram (D)
Erik Johnson (D)
Mikhail Sergachev (D)
Player Props
These are some interesting player props for tonight’s showdown
Nathan MacKinnon (COL): anytime goal scorer AND over 1.5 points
Steven Stamkos (TBL): anytime goal scorer
Andre Burakovsky (COL): anytime goal scorer – nice depth play for plus money (+320)
Make sure to hop in our Expert Discord Chat for FREE! Jon and the NHL team will be there answering questions right up until lock! Be sure to be on the look out for future articles at https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-hockey/
All line combinations are courtesy of www.dailyfaceoff.com, and any advanced rates referenced in the above article are pulled from www.naturalstattrick.com.
