jamie calkins 
NHL Betting Picks Monday 5/3
Welcome to Keith’s NHL Betting Picks Monday 5/3. The Model took a break yesterday as there was only 1 game played with the Lightning beating the Red Wings 2-1. No value considering the Lightning were around a -300 favorite after losing to the Red Wings on Friday. The good news in the NHL blessed us with a monster Monday slate of games.
We have 14 games on the NHL slate tonight. Let’s take a look at the updated profitability and over win percentages for the teams playing today.
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- Capitals Money Line (-115) over the Rangers
- Rangers Puck Line (+1.5, -250) over the Capitals
- Maple Leafs Money Line (-159) over the Canadiens
- Predators Money Line (-182) over the Blue Jackets
- Hurricanes Money Line (-240) over the Blackhawks
- Penguins Money Line (-175) over the Flyers
- Islanders Puck Line (-1.5, +106) and Money Line (-245) over the Sabres
- Bruins Money Line (-240) over the Devils
- Panthers Money Line (-129) over the Stars
- Ducks Puck Line (+1.5, -121) over the Blues
- Golden Knights/Wild Over (5.5, -112)
- Oilers Puck Line (-1.5, +123) over the Canucks
- Oilers/Canucks Under (5.5, +104)
- Avalanches Money Line (-265) over the Sharks
Keep an eye out for Starting Goalies tonight.
My Picks
Senators/Jets Over 5.5 (-130): These two teams both have pretty sub-par defenses. The Sens give up 3.47 goals/game while the Jets allow 2.86. The good news is we are getting the Jets backup goalie Brossoit tonight, which is huge considering Hellebuyck is one of the best goalies in the league. The over is 4-3 in 7 matchups this season and both teams slightly rested with below averages goaltenders in net makes me love this over.
Kings/Coyotes Over 5.5 (+115): We are back on the plus money over. This one on the surface might seem like a stretch but the underlying numbers are there for us. Both teams are over 50% in their over win percentage this season. The Coyotes average 5.5 goals/game and the Kings are slightly below them at 5.65. They are 3-3 on the over this season in 6 matchups so seems like a coin flip, maybe even a little favorable for the over. So the plus money is what puts this play in range today.
Oilers -1.5 (+128): The Canucks looked like they had some life after coming off COVID and winning 2 straight against the Maple Leafs. They have gone 1-5 since and have not looked particularly good. The Oilers are 5-2 in their last 7 games and have been a very good -1.5 team this season (47% top 5 in the NHL). The Canucks are below average on +1.5 and with McDavid and Draisaitl rolling we like this play with the plus money tonight.
Penguins -1 (-112): The Flyers season is over and Carter Hart is done for the year, not that he has been good. The Penguins are fighting to get that top spot in the East and have been playing well even without Malkin. Since we have a monster slate I felt a need to find a 4th play and this one seems like a very solid play for good value. Teams trending in the opposite directions, look for Pittsburgh to run over their state rival.
Follow along on Twitter @KeithKavJr for the most up-to-date information regarding the games tonight
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