jamie calkins 
NHL Betting Picks Thursday 3/4
Welcome to Keith’s NHL Betting Picks Thursday 3/4. Another 2-1 profitable night for Keith and The Model. The Avalanche with a huge bounce back game in a 4-0 win over the Sharks, getting that value if you took regulation or puck line. The Wild who I said had value as it was a 50/50 game, actually edged Vegas in most advanced stats despite losing 5-1.
And for the Premium Pick, the under in the Blues/Ducks was always in control even though it finished 3-2. Binnington looked very solid in net and the Ducks struggled mightily to get good chances. The Premium Pick is 3-1 overall.
We have 10 games on the slate today let’s take a look at the updated profitability and over win percentages for the teams playing tonight.
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Dashboard Edges
- Flyers Puck Line (-1.5, +205) over the Penguins
- Penguins/Flyers Over (6.5, +102)
- Jets Money Line (+124) over the Canadiens
- Hurricanes Money Line (-315) over the Red Wings
- Islanders Money Line (-195) AND Puck Line (-1.5, +140) over the Sabres
- Panthers Money Line (-136) over the Predators
- Maple Leafs Money Line (-159) over the Canucks
Keep an eye out for Starting Goalies tonight. Some notes on the season so far:
Toronto is an absolute juggernaut this year and just beat Edmonton in their 3 game series by a combined score of 13-1. Tampa is also playing extremely well in their Stanley Cup defense and are missing arguably their best player (Kucherov – out for season). Florida and Chicago have been pleasant surprises this year. It will be interesting to see which teams make it out of the Central as Nashville and Columbus have underwhelmed but have the talent to make a run.
My Picks
Free Picks:
Panthers ML (-136): My Model is very low on the Predators this year and even with Bobrovsky starting for the Panthers it likes this number. The Panthers have also been pretty successful on the road from a betting perspective up 3.36 units. The Panthers are the better team and should take care of business.
Leafs/Canucks Under 7 Goals (-130): No one likes taking unders but when you see the line set at 7 you really have to assess whether that is reasonable or not. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Leafs continue their dominance against a below average defense in the Canucks and carry this over. But I think there will be a slight regression tonight and at that 7 number this under was too good to pass up.
Premium Pick:
Flyers ML (-122): This is a great bounce back spot for the Flyers coming off a 5-2 loss to the Penguins on Tuesday. This will be Pittsburgh’s second straight game without Crosby and I think the Flyers will be ready for this second game against the Pens. Finally healthy and everyone has at least one game under their belt since being removed from the COVID list, look for the Flyers to come out strong and get a win tonight.
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Check out NHL Hot Shot if you are interested in DFS and want some good insight!
