jamie calkins 
NHL Betting Picks Saturday 2/20
Welcome to Keith’s NHL Betting Picks Saturday 2/20. We have a fantastic 12 game slate today, including the outdoor game in Lake Tahoe between Vegas and Colorado, I mean look at that view (via NBC Sports):
An easy 1-0 record last night for The Model with the Panthers handling their business in regulation against the Red Wings with a monster 4 goal first period in their 7-2 win. Let’s take a look at the updated profitability and over win percentages on the season:
Feel free to go click the Tableau Public Link to interact with the dashboard.
As we’ve mentioned before it is very important to monitor Starting Goalies to ensure you have optimal value in your picks.
Betting Nuggets/Notes
- Teams who are evenly matched and lost the first game of a back-to-back are winning the second game around 75% of the time. Islanders, Predators, Ducks, and Flames all qualify for that today.
- The Maple Leafs have played 3 games against the Senators since the Canadiens played last Saturday against the Maple Leafs, who meet tonight.
My Picks:
Devils ML -125: The Devils are coming off a huge win on Thursday against the first place Bruins. The Sabres have played awful since returning from their COVID break going 0-3-0 scoring a combined 2 goals. Shocked the line is so low here.
Rangers/Capitals u6.5 -125: As mentioned on Thursday, the Capitals have been scoring a goal above expected, aka getting some puck luck, and hit their under on Thursday winning 3-1. The Rangers are in the bottom 5 in Total Goals (For and Against)/game at 4.91. That 6.5 number is too high and we are taking it here.
Islanders ML +106: Out of the 4 teams in the above betting nugget, I feel the strongest about an Islanders bounce back tonight. Losing 4-1 to the Penguins on Thursday the game was actually a lot closer leveraging advanced stats. If the Isles start Varlamov that’s an added bonus and at + money there is some value on the Islanders here.
Follow along on Twitter @KeithKavJr
If you’re interested in DFS take a look at today’s Between The Benches!
