jamie calkins 
NHL Betting Picks Thursday 4/8
Welcome to Keith’s NHL Betting Picks Thursday 4/8. The Model had another undefeated night going 1-0-1. The Maple Leafs took care of business against Montreal winning 3-2. And then there was the under in the Sens/Oilers game. Looked great all game. 1 goal in the 1st. 2 goals in the 2nd. And then Leon Draisaitl decided to ruin my night and get the 6th goal on an empty net with 0.2 seconds left. 0.2!!! 2 tenths of a second. The game was over. He couldn’t give me my glory. Safe to say I didn’t sleep well last night. Whatever. On to today.
We have 10 games on the NHL slate tonight. Let’s take a look at the updated profitability and over win percentages for the teams playing today.
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Dashboard Edges
- Lightning Puck Line (-1.5, +123) and Money Line (-210) over the Blue Jackets
- Islanders Puck Line (-1.5, +135) over the Flyers
- Capitals Money Line (-118) over the Bruins
- Jets Money Line (+110) over the Canadiens
- Devils Puck Line (-1.5, +195) and Money Line (-129) over the Sabres
- Rangers Puck Line (-1.5, +190) over the Penguins
- Oilers Money Line (-186) over the Senators
- Oilers/Senators Under (6.5, -120)
- Red Wings/Predators Under (5, +117)
- Blackhawks Money Line (-104) over the Stars
Keep an eye out for Starting Goalies tonight. There are a couple leans today that I don’t like enough to make official plays but if you want to sprinkle or throw a free bet on them (like I did with this first one), feel free. The Canadiens -127 have a big edge on The Model which prices them at -143. I also like the Rangers -130 and the Flyers +150, but again not enough to make official plays.
My Picks
Free Picks
Capitals ML (-115): The Bruins are banged up right now with McAvoy out and rolling out their 4th string goalie tonight in Swayman. The Caps are +4u at home this season and Boston is -2u on the road. They only have a slight edge on the BetMGM ML at -115 but The Model prices them around -135, which is why we like them tonight.
Lightning -1.5 (+128): The Lightning have yet to cover a puck line against Columbus. The same Columbus who has looked pretty terrible against everyone not named the Lightning this season. It’s hard to figure out exactly why Columbus plays them so well. Tonight I think a regression is in order. Considering the -1.5 number against Columbus was -110 and +100 in the last two games, I think we are getting value at +128.
Premium Pick
Hurricanes/Panthers Under 6 (+100): True life: I’m addicted to betting under 6 at plus odds. I didn’t learn my lesson from yesterday so I’m ready to get burned today. These teams just hit 7 goals in their last meeting but we get the good goalie matchup with Nedeljkovic and Driedger. These teams only hit under 6 in 1 out of 5 meetings so far this season, but pushed on 2 others. Neither of these teams average over 6 total goals/game this year with CAR at 5.53 and FLA at 5.83. Let’s ride this tonight and hate ourselves later.
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