jamie calkins 
NHL Betting Picks Thursday 4/29
Welcome to Keith’s NHL Betting Picks Thursday 4/29. The Model had another positive night going 2-1. The only loss was the Wild -1.5 which was our calculated risk play at +172. They held 2-0 and 3-1 leads before ultimately losing 4-3. They run it back again tonight, will I take it again? The Golden Knights looked great against the Avs and then the Sharks/Coyotes played a 4-2 game which hit our over of 5.5. Although, it was 3-1 at the end of 1 so they made us sweat it only getting to 6 goals. We take our 2-1 night and move on to Thursday.
We have 10 games on the NHL slate tonight. Let’s take a look at the updated profitability and over win percentages for the teams playing today.
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Dashboard Edges
- Lightning Money Line (-162) over the Stars
- Rangers Puck Line (-1.5, +220) over the Islanders
- Bruins Money Line (-400) over the Sabres
- Hurricanes Money Line (-400) over the Red Wings
- Wild Puck Line (-1.5, +170) and Money Line (-148) over the Blues
- Panthers Money Line (-162) over the Blackhawks
- Oilers Puck Line (-1.5, +175) and Money Line (-141) over the Flames
Keep an eye out for Starting Goalies tonight.
My Picks
Penguins/Capitals Over 5.5 (-115): Honestly shocked this over/under was 5.5, could be attributed to Ovechkin or their recent forms. However the Pens came off games against the Bruins (stingy defense) and the Caps with the Isles (also stingy defense). There are other overs at 5.5 with more juice and I like this one the most of them all. The Caps are 2nd in the league on overs and average 6.43 total goals/game. The Pens are no slouches either averaging 6.16 total goals/game. Both teams over win % increases in their current environment tonight, so we are riding this one.
Wild ML (-135): Same logic as yesterday, but a little more conservative just rolling with the money line tonight. I’ve seen this line as high as -158 so I really like the value I am getting here at -135. The Wild were the better team yesterday and gave up a couple stupid goals. Dead even in Corsi and Fenwick in their game yesterday, the Wild had a 61% Scoring Chance percentage and led in Expected Goals 2.53 – 1.58. I like them to win this back-to-back, would be even better if we got Husso in net for STL, although with the Blues in a playoff push I assume they will ride Bing again tonight.
Follow along on Twitter @KeithKavJr for the most up-to-date information regarding the games tonight
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