jamie calkins 
NHL Betting Picks Tuesday 4/27
Welcome to Keith’s NHL Betting Picks Tuesday 4/27. The Model got absolutely obliterated last night. 0-4. An overtime loss, a one goal loss, and an over that miss by a half goal. The only bad L was the Ducks and that was only a half unit play for the value. It happens but it still stings. That is what happened when I take a weekend off, pretty sure it happened last month. It’s also that weird time of year when you can’t really tell what certain teams are playing for and those games have some risk (Sens last night). We move on to Tuesday, as always Trust the Process.
We have 8 games on the NHL slate tonight. Let’s take a look at the updated profitability and over win percentages for the teams playing today.
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Dashboard Edges
- Flyers Money Line (-132) over the Devils
- Flyers/Devils Over (6, -113)
- Red Wings Money Line (+123) and Puck Line (+1.5, -220) over the Blue Jackets
- Penguins Money Line (+100) over the Bruins
- Rangers Puck Line (-1.5, -120) and Money Line (-295) over the Sabres
- Hurricanes Money Line (-125) over the Stars
- Stars/Hurricanes Under (5.5, -117)
Keep an eye out for Starting Goalies tonight. We are waiting for confirmation on goalies before we lock in the Preds/Panthers over. We are only taking it if we get a Bobrovsky/Rinne goaltending matchup.
My Picks
Islanders ML (+108): This one is pretty simple. These teams are relatively evenly matched at full-strength, but the Caps are without Ovi tonight. Yet for some reason the Isles are still plus money. The Isles have sputtered a little bit as of late, but Trotz always seems to coach against his former team well. They have lost 2 straight against them and I doubt they lose a 3rd. I think the Isles get it done tonight and with the plus money, we are getting some great value here.
Blackhawks/Lightning Over 5.5 (-130): The Lightning score a lot of goals and the Blackhawks are pretty good at giving them up. Getting this at the 5.5 makes me like this a lot, even if it is a little juicy. The Lightning are 50% on their overs and the Blackhawks are 48%. But at home the Lightning are 60% and the Blackhawks are 52%, so both even better in the current environment of tonight’s matchup. Also the Lightning average 6.13 goals/game on the road and the Blackhawks average 6.22 goals/game at home, so we love this play tonight.
Hurricanes ML (-125): Running it back with the Canes tonight. Same logic as yesterday, but we have the better goaltender tonight (Ned). Carolina coming off of a loss, and they are the better team even though they are a little banged up so is Dallas. The Stars do not have a significant home ice advantage and the Canes are rather good on the road. Feeling good about a comeback tonight.
Follow along on Twitter @KeithKavJr for the most up-to-date information regarding the games tonight
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