jamie calkins 
NHL Betting Picks Monday 4/19
Welcome to Keith’s NHL Betting Picks Monday 4/19. The Model had a 1-2 night on games that had no business playing out the way they did. An early Bruins win over the Caps had me feeling good. But then Pittsburgh decided to lose their first game in 9 (!!) years on the road against Buffalo in regulation. That was a shocker to say the least. Then an even bigger shock was the Maple Leafs losing to a Vancouver team who basically got destroyed by COVID. The biggest favorite to lose in the last 20 years. So that was how the night went. Fun stuff. It’s Monday though so we are on to a new week.
We have 8 games on the NHL slate tonight. Let’s take a look at the updated profitability and over win percentages for the teams playing today.
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Dashboard Edges
- Hurricanes Money Line (+102) over the Lightning
- Panthers Puck Line (-1.5, +107) and Money Line (-220) over the Blue Jackets
- Red Wings Money Line (+195) over the Stars
- Wild Puck Line (-1.5, +160) and Money Line (-155) over the Coyotes
- Wild/Coyotes Over (5.5, +108)
- Senators Puck Line (+1.5, -141) over the Flames
- Oilers Money Line (-124) over the Canadiens
- Golden Knights Money Line (-245) over the Sharks
Keep an eye out for Starting Goalies tonight.
My Picks
Wild/Coyotes Over 5.5 (+120): I am actually shocked how this over is +120. These teams are 3-3 in their 6 matchups on the over this season. The Wild have been scoring/letting up goals in bunches lately. Both teams are over 50% on hitting their overs this season (ARI 57%, MIN 53%), both teams have even better number on their home/away numbers for this particular matchup. This is great value and we are riding with that tonight.
Senators ML (+185): On paper Calgary should be a significantly better team than Ottawa, however that doesn’t seem to be the case. Both teams were sellers at the deadline and are basically out of playoff contention. The Sens have some fight and The Model prices them around +170. The Sens have won 5 of 7 meetings this season and at this price it’s good enough for us to ride.
Blue Jackets +1.5 (-125): Going pretty underdog heavy today. The Blue Jackets were also sellers at the deadline while the Panthers were buyers. They also just had a huge win on Saturday against Tampa and have been rolling. We have the best possible goalie matchup here (Elvis vs Bob), and I can even see an outright upset. However we are going to play this one safe and take the +1.5 line. The Panthers are 11-18 on the puckline as favorites this season and can see a Columbus cover tonight.
Follow along on Twitter @KeithKavJr for the most up-to-date information regarding the games tonight
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