jamie calkins 
NHL Betting Picks Thursday 4/1
Welcome to Keith’s NHL Betting Picks Thursday 4/1. An easy 1-0 day for The Model last night with Toronto easily beating Winnipeg 3-1. Both of the leans hit too with Colorado dummying Arizona 9-3 and the over hitting before the 1st period ended, and LA as a +190 dog beating Vegas 4-2. I got ratted from Tuesday or else I would’ve took those. Of course that happens. Whatever, on to today.
We have 9 games on the NHL slate tonight. Let’s take a look at the updated profitability and over win percentages for the teams playing today.
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Dashboard Edges
- Lightning Puck Line (-1.5, -108) over the Blue Jackets
- Rangers Money Line (-250) and Puck Line (-1.5, +110) over the Sabres
- Panthers Money Line (-245) over the Red Wings
- Canadiens Puck Line (-1.5, +132) over the Senators
- Penguins Money Line (+107) over the Bruins
- Hurricanes Money Line (-162) over the Blackhawks
- Predators Money Line (+108) over the Stars
- Wild Puck Line (+1.5, -200) over the Golden Knights
Keep an eye out for Starting Goalies tonight.
My Picks
Free Picks
Rangers -1.5 (+110): The Sabres are on cloud 9 after finally getting a win last night. The bad news is they face a red hot Rangers team tonight. The Rangers are +9.32u on the puck line on the road this season and the Sabres are -10.67u at home, a 19u difference. That alone makes me like it but throw in the fact the Sabres won last night, are probably not playing Ullmark because of a B2B, and the Rangers hot streak of late just makes me love it even more. This seems like a no-brainer.
Capitals/Islanders Over 5.5 (+105): The Capitals rank second in the NHL in total goals this season (6.2), while the Isles rank second-to-last (5.12). However the Islanders hit their over 68.75% of the time at home. The Caps have a lot of shooting talent leading the league in Goals Scored Above Expected. They’ve scored 3, 6, and 3 goals respectively in 3 matchups with the Islanders this season. The over has only hit in 1 of those matchups but I like getting the 5.5 number at plus money.
Premium Pick
Lightning -1.5 (-108): The Lightning lost against Columbus on Tuesday, but the numbers still suggest they should beat them by more than a goal. The good news is we have Vasilevskiy in net so that should improve the defensive side of things. The Lightning are +10.39u on the puck line at home this season and Columbus is -7.72u on the road. Tampa have yet to cover the puck line against Columbus this year which scares me a little bit, however I think they come out with some force tonight and get it done.
Follow along on Twitter @KeithKavJr for the most up-to-date information regarding the games tonight
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