NFL Week 6: The Jigsaw Pieces

When you go 13/15 on your picks, including 2 SGPs, you know the right puzzle is being built. Last week we not only hit on most of the puzzle pieces, but actually called out the plays in which they would score. Now we look to profit some more in Week 6!

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If you’re looking for an article that can be used for Season Long, DFS, and Props, the search is over. I introduce you to the Jigsaw Pieces, an article that is packed with insightful information, very opinionated takes, and multiple ways to make a profit. No matter what kind of contest you’re playing, there’s a piece of the puzzle for you!

Games to Watch

ARZ vs. LAR — O/U 48.5 PTs and both teams are capable of big plays

• M. Stafford ($6100), Kupp ($9000), Rams D/ST ($3700) — Matt Stafford is easily the most underappreciated QB in Fantasy. All this guy does is produce a consistent 18 PTS a week at $5600 in DFS. This week his number goes up, but for good reason.  He gets his main guy back, who showed us a preview of what we’ve missed last week. The ARZ secondary is a mess, which will cut out the INTs and add in another TD. That’s a 10 point positive swing. On the other side of the ball, Mr. Donald will be in the face of Dobbs all day, leading to some bad throws. He had multiple INTs last week and a pick 6 in this game in coming.

• M. Brown ($5300), R. Moore ($3500), Z Ertz ($3600) — Let me just say this, “37 targets in 4 games!” Yes, that’s the type of volume Hollywood is getting this year. He’s been in double digits the last 3 games while averaging a nice 13 YPC with multiple TDs. He could be the steal of the week assuming his illness doesn’t hold him back. In this type of game, I expect some WR runs with Rondale being used like Debo. So far this season he has an 18 YPR AVG on his 8 attempts, with all coming from 3 games. This will be game number 4. Lastly, the veteran Z. Ertz just has a knack for catching the ball. He doesn’t have the yardage, but he’s always a threat to score. In a game that should be a good back and forth, he’s another great value based on his volume and last week’s stat line of Dallas Goedert (8/117/1) helps fuel my confidence.

Props to Watch

• M. Stafford  – OVR 1.5 TDs -175 / ALT Pass Yds 275+ (-135)
• C. Kupp – OVR 7.5 Receptions +110
• J. Dobbs – OVR 0.5 INTs -115
• M. Brown  – OVR 4.5 Rec -150 / Anytime TD +155
• Z. Ertz – OVR 3.5 Rec -135 / Anytime TD +200

SEA vs. CIN — O/U 45 PTs and both teams are have Prime Time Players

• K. Walker ($6700), T. Lockett ($5700) — Volume and TDs are what you want from a RB and KW gives you that combination. Over his last 3 games he is averaging 18 APG with 5 TDs. Everyone was worried about the Rookie stealing some touches, but with an old school, pound it first kind of coach like Pete, I knew this would be his bell cow. On the other hand, Lockett hasn’t been able to eclipse the 60 yard mark yet this season, but he’s getting the looks over JSN. The bye week gave them time to adjust and get their playmaker more involved and back to being the TD machine we are all used to seeing. Cincy has been blown out multiple times already this year and this could be a game within those same parameters. I see a 2 TD game in my sights…….

• J. Burrow ($6300), J. Chase ($8300), T. Boyd ($4600) — Last week Cincy turned back the clock and produced the offensive firepower we have come to expect. It was just a matter of time for it all to click once the QB was healthy. This week he has the luxury of facing a defense that ranks 30^th in the NFL giving up over 280 yards through the air per game. On top of that, they don’t get after the QB with consistency, unless your name is Danny Dimes (11 of their 16 sacks this year). As for the WRs, I do not expect 19 targets for Mr. Chase and a nonexistent role for Mr. Boyd. One thing to turn your attention to is Chase only had 3 games last year under 10 targets and so far he has already matched this in 2023. This shows me it’s double digit targets for the rest of the year. In regards to Boyd, I look at volume (31 targets in 4 games) and say it’s just a matter of time until we see Joe scramble and find Boyd running sideways in the back of the end zone to get open. This TD happens this week!

Props to Watch

• J. Burrow  – OVR 1.5 TDs -120
• K. Walker – OVR 67.5 Yds -125 / Anytime TD -105
• T. Lockett  – OVR  52.5 Rec Yds -115 / OVR 4.5 Receptions +110 / Anytime TD +190 (Triple Threat)
• J. Chase  – OVR 7.5 Rec +105
• T. Boyd – Anytime TD +180

NO vs. HOU — O/U 42 PTs —Sneaky Game of the Week

• D. Carr ($5300), A. Kamara ($6000), M. Thomas ($4900) — DC is never a popular pick, but he looked much more comfortable last week and would have boosted his stats more if the game wasn’t out hand so early. He also got Kamara back, which alleviates some of the pressure he was seeing from the opposing defense. The Texans have only given up 3 Passing TDs so far this year, but a trio of Kamara, Olave, and Thomas is a tough test. Speaking of Kamara, he made his reentry into the NFL in Week 4 and showed he’s still a focal point of the Saints offense. The encouraging sign for owners is the 22 attempts rushing the ball last week and the 13 receptions the week prior. All this symbolizes the usage he will be given and how capable he is of handling it. Lastly, we can’t forget about Mr. Thomas, who keeps quietly producing consistent numbers each week. The volume is there and the production is slowing rising. Did you know he leads the team in receptions, 1 over Olave? This just shows both these guys are involved and the offense has a whole is heating up.

• R. Woods ($5400), D. Pierce ($5000) — Both of these plays are based on volume and point potential. No Tank Dell means more looks for Woods, who already gets plenty of targets when the WR group is healthy. As always, we have to consider a drop off for Nico with Lattimore shadowing him all game. As for Pierce, his 3.3 YPC is putrid, but the fact that he has 44 attempts in 2 game shows they trust him to keep pounding the rock. One other thing to consider is the Texans O’line hasn’t been healthy all year and this week some pieces return just in time to face a very good pass rush from the Saints led by Cam Jordan.  

Props to Watch

• A. Kamara – OVR 97.5 Rush/Rec Yds -115
• M. Thomas — OVR  4.5 Receptions -120
• R. Woods  — OVR 4.5 Receptions +110
• D. Pierce – Anytime TD +155
• T. Hill – Anytime TD +285

Confident Studs (Pieces that will fit in your frame)

• B. Hall ($6,000) – I had him on the watch list last week for a breakout and he didn’t let me down. This week I expect nothing less against an Eagles Defense that will be without their best interior lineman, J. Carter.

• P. Nacua ($8,000) – Everyone expected him to take a backseat to Kupp, but that didn’t happen and he still was productive, even finding the end zone too. I said earlier my fear was more for Williams owners based on the emphasis in the passing game taking away the runs he received earlier in the season without Kupp. For me, that’s still the case. Puka is 1K cheaper and still a Stud to play each week.

• T.J. Hockenson ($6,600) –With JJ on the mend, everyone will be jumping on the Osborne and Addison wagon. However, I feel Kirk, who has been getting hit a lot, will lean more towards his TE that possess the ability to run crisp routes and go up and get the ball. Captain Kirk likes to feel comfortable and that means a good uptick in touches for TJ that could amount to 7-10 PTS more a week.

Skeptical Stars (Pieces you force into slots that may not fit)

• B. Purdy ($5600) – Yes, Purdy has been a fantastic game manager who has been put in great positions by Kyle. However, if you minus last week’s 4 TD performance, he has 2 games already with 1TD or less. Make no mistake about it, this team rides or dies with CMC scoring TDs, not Purdy’s magic in the sky. This week his faces a DEF who only gives up 148 YPG to opposing QBs and ranks 1^st against them. This isn’t an easy play for week 6.  —Value sits with D. Carr $5300 +B. Mayfield $5400

• T. McLaurin ($5500) – On a team where sharing the ball is a priority, a WR1 is never going to be a top play. If you couple this with Atlanta’s underrated ability to defend the pass (6^th in the NFL) this could be a long day at the office for someone who used to be “Scary.” The only ones who should be scared are the GMs who drafted him as a reliable target for their weekly lineups. With only 1 game so far with double digit targets, his days of max production are over. — Value sits with KJ Osborn $4400 + M. Thomas $4900

Diamonds in the Rough (Pieces that could make the Mona Lisa of all puzzles)

• D. Ogletree ($2600) – Shane Steichen loved to call double tight end sets in Philly with guys like Jack Stoll getting RZ opportunities when Gardner had to play. Against a HC who likes to do the same thing, I suspect his trickery will be on high alert this week. With at least 2 targets in each game and 1TD, Drew is built for this role.  Prop to Hit – Anytime TD +600

• A. Lazard ($3700) – Even as a Philly guy, I know the secondary has played below standards and is still trying to recover from the Avonte Maddox loss.  Now, their top CB Slay is OUT. Z. Wilson hasn’t looked terrible lately and is reading the field quicker. Lazard will find himself in space often, which is where he thrives, leading to big play opportunities. This could be his week to explode.  Prop to Hit – OVR 2.5 Rec + ALT Rec 40+ = +138 Combo

• J. Downs ($4100) On a team looking for a reliable WR2, Josh has stepped up and showed promise. Last week with a 90% Target to Catch Ratio, he showed no matter whom the QB is, he can go long. Going up against a DEF that is susceptible to the big play, his 16.2 YPC could really shine.  Prop to Hit – OVR 3.5 Rec + OVR 44.5 Rec Yds = +110 Combo