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Are you ready for Week 6 DFS? I cannot believe it has gone by this quickly. It is nice to have a solid sample size of games to work with for data. We will go through each matchup game-by-game in the main slate, and I will give my best buys via DraftKings prices.
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Early Games
Bengals at Ravens
This game looks like a get right spot for quarterback Lamar Jackson ($6,900). The Bengals are one of the worst defenses in the NFL. The worst fantasy performance for a quarterback playing them has scored 16 fantasy points. Factor in Jackson’s rushing ability and he is a great player to roster into your cash lineups. The Bengals gave up 93 rushing yards last week to Cardinals’ quarterback Kyler Murray. Also, do not overlook Mark Ingram II ($6,600) as the Bengals have allowed the second-most fantasy points to running backs this season. Any running back that has seen at least ten carries versus them has scored at least 14 fantasy points. No team has a higher implied team total than the Ravens via RotoCurve at 29.75 points.
Via Ian Hartitz the Ravens are allowing 6.7 yards per play which is the second-highest of any defense so far in 2019. There is potential for the Bengals to score in this game and create a friendly atmosphere for fantasy points. Joe Mixon ($5,500) is the cheapest three-down back you will find on the slate. If you exclude Week 1 versus the Dolphins the Ravens defense has allowed the most rushing touchdowns and most red zone touches to opposing running backs. Mixon has ten of the 12 red zone touches this season on the Bengals.
Texans at Chiefs
If Sammy Watkins and Tyreek Hill do not play in this game you will want to play Byron Pringle ($3,500). He will act as the free square at the wide receiver position this week. Also if you are looking to fade a high-priced chalky wide receiver in DeAndre Hopkins ($7,400) consider pivoting to Travis Kelce ($7,000). Kelce has at least eight targets in every single game this season with at least 70 receiving yards. However, he only has one touchdown reception. This should change in Week 6 with positive touchdown regression coming from Patrick Mahomes ($7,500) and the Chiefs offense.
As for the Texans, I am not so sure we see the offensive explosion from last week. Playing in Kansas City is a much different spot than home against the Atlanta Falcons. Carlos Hyde ($4,400) is going to be overlooked with everybody flocking to the passing game. However, Hyde has to be considered because the Chiefs are allowing 5.3 yards per carry which rank second-highest in the NFL. When the Chiefs are at home, teams’ opponents are averaging 38.5 rushing attempts per game.
Saints at Jaguars
Are you part of Minshew Mania? Well, this week in DraftKings you may want to be. Gardner Minshew ($5,000) is one of the best valued lower-priced quarterbacks on the slate. He is averaging 17.9 fantasy points per game. This week he is playing the Saints at home. New Orleans on the season has allowed the second-most fantasy points to the quarterback position. Minshew has scored at least 14 fantasy points in each game this season and has scored 21 or more points in both of his home starts. He is also averaging right around 25 rushing yards per game. You will want to consider stacking Mishew with one or both D.J. Chark ($5,500) and Dede Westbrook ($5,100).
People are going to see the Saints matchup and project Chark to be a bust in Week 6. Marshon Lattimore is coming off a game where he just completely blanked Mike Evans. However, Evans and Chark are two completely different wide receivers. Evans is a size specimen whereas Chark is a guy that possesses 4.34 speed. Chark is too cheap to pass on. The Saints still allow the fifth-most fantasy points to the wide receiver position. Specifically, it has been against slot receivers this season. Chris Godwin, Tyler Lockett, and Cooper Kupp all went over 100 yards when they played the Saints. Westbrook is coming off his best game of the year, as he had seven receptions on 11 targets for 82 receiving yards.
For New Orleans, it is worth paying up to get Alvin Kamara this week. We just saw Christian McCaffery absolutely tear up the Jaguars. Considering that Jalen Ramsey is also likely to play in the game, that could force more targets to the way of Kamara. Jacksonville gives up the sixth-most fantasy points to the running back position. The Jaguars have also allowed the second-most red-zone targets to the running back position. No team has allowed higher yards per attempt on the ground (5.5) than the Jaguars.
Eagles at Vikings
We saw the bounce-back effort from Vikings’ passing attack in Week 5 and that should continue in Week 6. Philadelphia gives up the fifth-most fantasy points to the wide receiver position. Stefon Diggs ($5,900) comes in at cheap price and can definitely expose the Eagles’ secondary. Dalvin Cook ($8,400) is going to be avoided by the majority of players because the Eagles allow the fifth-fewest fantasy points to the running back position. However, Cook is heavily involved in the passing game and according to Sports Info Solutions, the Vikings are one of the best teams in terms of screen usage to their running backs from an efficiency standpoint. The Eagles are one of the worst teams at defending screens. Play Dalvin Cook in Week 6.
Seahawks at Browns
It’s time for Odell Beckham Jr. ($6,800) to bounce back. Beckham is still seeing a large target share on the Browns’ offense and is priced so low this week. The Seahawks pass-rush is not nearly as good as the 49ers so Baker Mayfield should have more time to throw the ball. The Seahawks have also given up some massive games to wide receivers this year. Cooper Kupp and John Ross both went over 100 receiving yards and scored touchdowns.
Redskins at Dolphins
The best plays for value in this game are Adrian Peterson ($4,500) and Preston Williams ($4,100). Williams via @TJHernandez on Twitter leads the league in red-zone target share. Josh Rosen has shown chemistry with Williams throughout his starts with 19 targets in his last two games. The matchup is also amazing on paper as the Redskins have given up the second-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season.
For Peterson, the narrative seems to be completely coach-driven. Interim head coach Bill Callahan has explicitly stated that he wants to run the ball more. Against the Dolphins it could not be a better spot to establish the run. Miami has given up the most fantasy points to running backs this season. In 2018 with the Redskins when Peterson saw at least 19 carries he averaged 100 rushing yards per game. For defenses, the Washington Redskins DST ($3,200) is also a great option. The Dolphins via PFF grades rank last in pass-blocking on the season. Washington sacked Tom Brady five times in Week 5.
Falcons at Cardinals
Time to fire up your Austin Hooper shares ($5,000). Hooper draws the best matchup of the week versus the Arizona Cardinals who have been the worst team versus the tight end position. Hooper leads the league in routes run at tight end and the spot is just too good to pass him up at his price. I say it’s worth eating the high ownership with Hooper for cash games and going contrarian in tournaments.
49ers at Rams
Without Brandin Cooks, the Rams will be forced to play more 12-personnel on offense. That would be huge for a guy like Gerald Everett ($3,600) who is tenth in the league in tight end targets and second on the Rams in red-zone targets. He is by far the best punt play at tight end on the main slate.
Cowboys at Jets
Le’Veon Bell ($6,400) for the Jets has a real chance to be productive in this game for Dallas. Number one reason, of course, is the return of his quarterback Sam Darnold. The other reason is that the Cowboys have not been great versus pass-catching running backs. They have allowed the fourth-most receptions, third-most targets, fifth-most yards, and third-most red-zone targets to the running back position. With Bell seeing 94% of the snaps in the backfield he is one of the best cash-game options on the main slate. He is averaging right under 26 touches per game, and with only one touchdown scored he is bound for some positive regression. Also, Jets DST ($1,500) also needs to be considered for cash because of how cheap that price is.
For the Cowboys Ezekiel Elliott ($8,500) continues to come in at an extremely high-price. However, I believe that he can be a great GPP play because of how he disappointed as the chalk running back at home last week. In Week 5, Elliott was missing two key offensive linemen in La’el Collins and Tyron Smith. They should both be good to go in Week 6, which would help elevate Elliott’s production against a middle of the pack New York run defense.
Titans at Broncos
This game features my favorite sneaky receiver to play in DraftKings on the Week 6 main slate. That receiver is A.J. Brown ($4,200). Last week he actually had a touchdown from Marcus Mariota negated by a penalty. He played in 64.5% of the snaps in Week 5 which was the highest of the season. It was the first time all season that he out-snapped both Adam Humphries and Tajae Sharpe. He has low price, to go along with a matchup that suits him to have a blow-up game in Week 6. With the Broncos up next cornerback Chris Harris will most likely be shadowing Corey Davis allowing Brown to see more looks. Just last week Keenan Allen drew coverage from Harris and Chargers’ wide receiver two Mike Williams saw a season-high 13 targets. Brown ranks eighth in the NFL in yards per route run (2.38) of any players that have at least 19 targets.
For the Broncos, the best matchup on paper they have is at tight end. The Titans are allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to the position. Noah Fant ($2,900) ranks in the top-ten in the NFL in routes run at tight end through the first five weeks. Fant is definitely the third option in the Broncos’ passing attack. Courtland Sutton ($5,000) also continues to be a value at wide receiver. He ranks tenth in the NFL in receiving yards (401).
