NFL Week 5: The Jigsaw Pieces

Last week we not only hit on most of the puzzle pieces, but actually called out the plays in which they would score. This includes the sweep to Curtis Samuel and the quick strike to Gabe Davis.  Now we look to profit some more in Week 5!

Are you looking for an article that can be used for Season Long, DFS, and Props? If so, the search is over. I introduce you to the Jigsaw Pieces, an article that is packed with insightful information, very opinionated takes, and multiple ways to make a profit. No matter what kind of contest you’re playing, there’s a piece of the puzzle for you!

Game to Watch

PHI vs. LAR — O/U 51 PTs and both teams are capable of fireworks

• J. Hurts ($8000), AJ Brown ($8000), J. Elliot (Props ONLY) — This is an easy one for me. Last week, after a slow start to the season, Jalen Hurts turned into the QB we all saw last year. And he brought T. Owens 2.0 (AJ Brown) with him. Over the last 2 games, his numbers are borderline historic (27 Targets – 18/206/2) leaving him as a MUST START no matter the opposition. Oh, and Jake Elliot has turned into the new Justin Tucker with an ability to kick from anywhere and anytime. If you take into account the confidence he has in himself, from the HC, and the luxury to have a high-powered offense around, his props can’t miss.

• K. Williams ($6700), Tutu Atwell ($5300) — Yes, the Eagles have an exceptional run defense, but when McVay locks in on a RB, he will force feed the action to his new treasure. As it stands, KW has no competition for carries (82% Snap Rate) and with his ability to catch in the flat, he isn’t a TD dependent piece. This equals instant flex value against a defense that surrenders the 5^th most receptions to the RBs on the year.  As for Tutu, just go back and watch the game film from last week and follow the C. Samuel blueprint. The Eagles struggle against WRs that can carry various designations on the field and they are still trying to complete their secondary after some unfortunate injuries. One thing to also consider is the amount of LB blitzes dialed up by the DC, leaving tons of space in the 2^nd level of protection for a speedy WR to work and make people miss.

Props to Watch

• J. Hurts  – OVR 1.5 TDs -110
• AJ Brown – OVR 5.5 Receptions -115
• J. Elliot  – OVR 7.5 Kicking PTs +100
• K. Williams  – OVR– Anytime TD -115 / OVR Rush + Rec +160

NYJ vs. DEN — Sneaky Game of the Week

• Z. Wilson ($4900), G. Wilson ($6000), B. Hall ($5400) — I know this sounds cliché, but my eyes saw something different last week. Maybe, just maybe, ZW is getting some confidence and Hackett is starting to work some play calling magic. If so, there’s not a better team to help that momentum build. The fact that he walked away with a QB rating > 100, not interceptions, and was only sacked 2x, shows he is reading the field quicker. As for his favorite target, GW will lack the big play ability from his QB, but based on his volume and open field talent, he can take one to the house at any time. Lastly, B. Hall has been limited up to this point and his HC gave owners the tune they were looking to hear this week when he said, “Breece is FREE.”

• C. Sutton ($5400), J.McLaughlin ($5000) — These 2 plays are simply based on my eyes and quirky vision. Sutton, even with a low output, was consistently targeted across the middle and in the red zone, while JM came in and showed some skills out in the flat. All this shows me Sutton is Russ’s #1 guy and Payton will latch on to his new toy out in the flat for screens  against a team that blitzes often.  

Props to Watch

• Z. Wilson – OVR 8.5 Rush Yds -120 / OVR 18.5 Completions -105
• G. Wilson – OVR  57.5 Rec Yds -125
• B. Hall  – Anytime TD +140

Confident Studs (Pieces that will fit your frame)

• De’Von Achane ($6,100) – The first week gave us chills and the second week showed us it was no fluke. McDaniel LOVES this kid and will give him the CMC treatment for the rest of the year.

• CJ Stroud ($6,000) – Who knew? That is the question many are asking when it comes to the rookie QB who has yet to throw an interception. Over the past 3 games he is sporting a 323/2 average and sits in the Top 10 in almost every positive category. This is an easy play and a value at this price tag.

• T.J. Hockenson ($6,500) – In what looks to be a high-scoring game, TJ will benefit from the attention JJ garners in the open field. Last week was a fluke and he will get back to his high target to catch ratio against a squad who has trouble with athletic tight ends.

Skeptical Stars (Pieces you force into slots that may not fit)

• R. Mostert ($6200) — As long as Achane is healthy, Mostert takes a backseat. We have seen this play out all across the league, even recently with Pollard/Zeke. Once the offense clicks and you become a multi-dimensional RB, your touches go up. Unfortunately, for Mostert, that means his will go down. —Value sits with D. Swift $6000 + J. Conner $5800 + I. Pacheco $5700

• K. Cousins  ($6200) – Some may have him as a favorite this week, but I look at a KC Def that can dial up a great scheme under Spags at any time. I feel this is one of those games he hangs his hat on being one of the best DCs in the game. The push up the middle against a very week O’line will see Captain Kirk on his backside more than usual. We all know Mr. Softie doesn’t like to get hit and tossed around. — Value sits with CJ Stroud $6000 + Z. Wilson $4900

Diamond in the Rough (Pieces that could make the Mona Lisa of all puzzles)

• M. Wilson ($3700) – MW is currently the #2 WR on a team that is exceeding expectations offensively without K. Murray. He gets better each week and will not see a price under 4k on Draftkings much longer. Prop to Hit – OVR 3.5 Receptions +140

• T. Conklin ($3700) –The Broncos are mess defensively and C.Kmet feasted last week. With Z. Wilson starting to use quicker outs to his advantage, Conklin will be the recipient of multiple looks inside the RZ. I can definitely see the run game working well and a play-action fake at the GL, with a roll out pass to the right EZ mark for a TD. Prop to Hit – Anytime TD +390

• J. Dobbs ($5200) He has a 70% completion rate and is hitting steady 20 Point Fantasy games each week. This is primarily due to his legs, which adds a consistent 4-5 points a week guaranteed. I feel confident that even in a negative game script, he will still give tremendous value at his price. Prop to Hit – OVR 20.5 Completions -120