Michael Rasile 
NFL Week 4 Where’s the Money?
Well, we finally have our first COVID outbreak of the 2020 NFL season and let me say I’m just happy they have found a way to continue playing. Even with everyone making fun of what was supposed to be a low scoring terrible Thursday Night Game with the Broncos and Jets, we have to remember that this season can be taken away from us at any point. This also means we should bet more games! It was interesting to break down where all the money was going last week and to see where the sharps were going and where the public was putting their confidence. So lets look at NFL Week 4 Where’s the Money?
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Cardinals (-3.5) at Panthers
Last week we saw the Panthers were getting over 6 points from a mediocre Chargers team starting a rookie QB, making it easy to understand why the public was putting more money on them. This week we see the Panthers at home against what seems to be a pretty good Cardinals team that lost a close one to the Lions last week.
The Panthers have been gashed on the ground this year and it seems a team like the Cardinals would be the perfect team to exploit that. A very good running back in Kenyon Drake, a solid back up with Chase Edmonds, and one of the quickest and shiftiest runners in Kyler Murray. With knowing this information it makes sense that over 73% of the bets coming in would be on the Cardinals -3.5, but you’d probably be curious as to why over 89% of the money is on the Panthers at +3.5.
Maybe it’s a team going West to East for a 1 o’clock game? Maybe some whales think that Teddy B will be able to show up Kyler? I’m not sure at all, but it definitely is something to monitor leading up to kick off. This could be a case of bettors wanting that number to come down to -3 or -2.5 to hammer the Cardinals on the way up.
Chargers at Bucs (-7)
There is something about this Bucs team that makes the public want to love them and Sharps betting against them. This week it’s the big money players and the Sharps (I’m sure there’s some cross over there) that are going to be against this Bucs team. Last week I didn’t think it made any sense to be on the Broncos especially when they were starting someone no named Drew Lock. Shoot, they almost lost to the Jets!
This week it makes a bit more sense though with the Chargers receiving 7 points. The Chargers will be starting a rookie QB, but it’s not quite Bill B back there scheming up the defense. Todd Bowles is no slouch, but we think Tom Brady we usually just assume. The Bucs have been looking better and better each start this season, but have been running into injury after injury.
Chris Godwin will be out this game and probably a few more this year, Mike Evans still doesn’t look fully healthy, and Leonard Fournette doesn’t look like he’ll be making a start either. On top of the injuries the Chargers defensive line is fantastic, while the Bucs offensive line is good at best.
It makes sense that a Tom Brady lead team going up against a rookie QB would lead to almost 70% of the bets to come in on the Bucs to win by 7, but as we said, the Sharps and big bettors would disagree. Over 70% of the money has been pouring in the on Chargers +7 this weekend!
Patriots at Chiefs (-7)
We saw a lot of money come in on the defending Super Bowl champs last week to cover the 3.5 points against the Ravens, and it worked like a charm. This week is a similar set up, but with a different coach on the sidelines. After dominating what most people thought was the best team in the NFL last week, the Chiefs opened as 8 point favorites against the Patriots.
Now we know this isn’t quite the same Pats team we’ve seen year in and year out. They had the most COVID opt outs, and, oh yeah, 2016 Cam Newton is playing for them this year.
This line quickly moved down to -7 and you can now get it at -6.5 at some books. Why the 1.5 point swing to the Pats? The big money seems to think that spread is too much to give Bill B. Over 75% of the money has been coming in on the Patriots to cover, but it should be interesting to say the least. We’re also seeing the Sharp money is coming in on the Chiefs to cover, so we have some clashing ideologies here. For what it’s worth, a little over 60% of bets place are on the Chiefs to cover.
Jaguars (+3) at Bengals
My goal with this article is to give you the 3 biggest discrepancies in terms of who the bets are on, and where the money is going. It’s fun to fade the public in most situations because they are routinely wrong. With that being said, I had to add in a 4th because it’s a doozy.
Everyone was on the Jags last week at -3 against the Dolphins and were shown up pretty quickly. It was as classic Fitzmagic game and he did not disappoint. So after being favored last week, the Jags are now back in their rightful place of being underdogs.
We also saw the Joe Burrow Bengals trek to Philadelphia, where only bad things happen, to tie the Eagles covering the spread in the process. But there was a funny thing happening after that Eagles Bengals game, other than everyone asking where Doug Peterson’s fearlessness went. With the outcome as a tie, many people were praising the Bengals for what they did and destroying the Eagles for what they did. But again, they tied.
So with positive public perception on their side, the Bengals go into this week as a team that we all thought looked good last week! Even though the Eagles are literally just as bad as they are, if not worse. The Jags will be coming off a bad loss, but 10 days rest.
With the Jags now getting those 3 points they gave last week, we have over 60% of the bets in their favor to cover the spread AND 99% of the money on them to cover. Now it’s not quite sharp money on the Jags, but with that much going in their direction Vegas is not moving this line. It opened at +3 to the Jags and looks to be staying there even with all the action on them. Sounds like Vegas thinks if they move off that magical number of 3 things will start to move against them….
Thanks for checking out NFL Week 4 Where’s the Money? If you’re looking to start making some money betting this NFL season, and every other sport for that matter, make sure to check out the Win Daily Sports Betting Membership where we post daily plays on spreads, totals, and player props. Make sure to follow me @MichaelRasile1 on Twitter and check out all the content over on the Win Daily Sports Show Podcast!
