NFL Week 4: The Jigsaw Pieces

Last week we smashed on Tank Dell, K. Walker, & M. Williams before the unfortunate injury, while steering you clear of D. Carr. We missed on Ridder and Ridley, but recovered with some nice Props cashed in on LaPorta. Now we look to profit some more in Week 4!

Are you looking for an article that can be used for Season Long, DFS, and Props? If so, the search is over. I introduce you to the Jigsaw Pieces, an article that is packed with insightful information, very opinionated takes, and multiple ways to make a profit. No matter what kind of contest you’re playing, there’s a piece of the puzzle for you!

Games to Watch

DEN vs. CHI — O/U 46.5 PTs and could be a Fields/Wilson Showdown

• R. Wilson, J. Williams, C. Sutton — This could be the JWill breakout game as he gets stronger each week, while Jeudy has shown he’s not ready yet for prime time. This is why Sutton is the guy for consistent production. His target share has risen X2 each week and if he can stop fumbling he will instantly be Russ’s new DK toy. That being said, one thing is already different in Denver and that’s the Russ Recipe. We all knew Payton would come in and let him air it out, which is exactly what he’s been doing. A quick look shows everything is up across the board….

• First 3 games in 2023: 263 YPG, 65% Comp, 23 ATPG and 6 TOT TDs
• First 3 games in 2022: 247 YPG, 58% Comp, 21 ATPG and 2 TOT TDS (YPG elevated from WK 1 340 performance)

• Are these huge risers, no!  However, it shows the commitment to the passing game and going against a team who hasn’t stopped anyone all year, he has Top 5 QB appeal this week.

• J. Fields & R. Johnson — This is the Justin Fields Week, I can feel it. Even though I don’t expect Denver to have another embarrassing showing, they still have no answers for the run. I think the Bears let Justin be Justin of 2022 with his legs as the key to points. On that same token, RJ has shown he is in the cards when it comes to the Bears running attack and last week Miami RBs destroyed the Broncos up front. This will be his first double-digit touch week and he will cash in!

Props to Watch

• J. Fields  – OVR 251.5 Rush/Pass Yds -115
• R. Johnson  – OVR 2.5 Rec +135 / Anytime TD +225 Combo Bet
• C. Sutton – OVER 4.5 Rec +124 / Anytime TD +135 Combo Bet
• Russ – OVER 1.5 TDs +100

PIT vs. HOU — Sneaky Game of the Week

• CJ Stroud, Nico, & Tank — CJ has easily been the biggest surprise at the QB position with a consistent 21+ PPG average. This has lead to a great target share from Nico and big plays from rookie Tank Dell. This week will be no different and possibly the most explosive performance of CJ’s season yet.

• Kenny & George— Both of these guys are primed to explode and this is the game environment to do so. Quietly, Kenny has been consistent in Yardage and TDs, but the INTs have to go down. However, I see this as his first 300 yd game with multiple TDs through the air and one on the ground. Yes, crazy, but very attainable. Helping him will be Mr. Pickens. He has 23 targets in 3 weeks and still no DJ. Against a team who has given up 2 big target share games to Deebo, Amari and Davante, this is a week to explode.

Props to Watch

• CJ Stroud – OVR 1.5 TDs +135
• G. Pickens – OVR  4.5 Receptions +124
• N. Collins  – Anytime TD +215
• K. Pickett – OVER 223.5 Pass Yds +100

Confident Studs (Pieces that will fit your frame)

• A. Kamara – Fresh off his suspension, he instantly injects his talents to a RB room that desperately needs it. No competition to carries and no TD vultures. On top of that, this could be check down city with Winston behind center and there are not many RBs who catch in the flat better than Alvin! It’s AKs show to produce.

• MPJ – It’s Michael Pittman Jr and everyone else in Indy. He the unquestioned WR1 and Mr. Richardson is back. Regardless, he has double digit targets in his first 3 games and Shane will keep calling his number. Just ask AJ and DeVonta.

• Gabe Davis – Are you ready for the fireworks in this game? Gabe doesn’t have the targets, but the big play ability is back. He has scored TDs in back to back games, and it’s about to be a 3^rd!

Skeptical Stars (Pieces you force into slots that may not fit)

• D. Henry – I have to say he looks completely cooked. Until I see any life, I will remain skeptical of his future. A 3.2 YPC, almost 2 full yards less his career average, for his size and ability shows his slow start is not a fluke.  Draftkings $7000 —  Value sits with K. Williams $6000 + Z. Moss $6000

• R. Stevenson – In a revenge game versus the Cowboys, don’t you see Bill shoving Zeke down their throats? Either way, he has been given the touches, yet still only has a 2.9 YPC. Just like King Henry, I need to see more before my trust is back.  Draftkings $6200 — Value sits with D Swift  $5700 + A. Mattison $5800

Diamond in the Rough (Pieces that could make the Mona Lisa of all puzzles)

• Tyler Boyd – Tennessee can stop the run, but through the air they have some major holes. Joe B is still working his way back and the O’line has been less than ideal. However, last week showed the passing game is still there (even though it was all Chase), and when it’s clicking, T Boyd finds green. With the lack of a big play TE, as a 3^rd WR Boyd finds good space and reliable hands in the RZ. Draftkings $4100 — Prop to Hit — OVER 3.5 Rec -125, Anytime TD +265

• Curtis Samuel — This is a typical NFC East matchup with the Eagles and even though they are stout upfront, they do have some holes in Nickel Coverage and in the LB core. The Defense has given up five touchdowns to opposing wide receivers through the first three weeks. Samuel hasn’t had a breakout yet, but his big play ability and mult-functional roles (sweeps and possible flea flickers) make this an intriguing DFS play. Draftkings $3500 — Prop to Hit – OVER 30.5 Rec Yards -110, Anytime TD +450