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It is time to move on to Week 4 DFS. We are three weeks in and have a nice sample size to work with. We will go through each matchup game-by-game in the main slate, and I will give my best buys and fades via DraftKings prices.
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Early Games
PATRIOTS AT BILLS
The battle of two undefeated teams in the AFC East with the Bills seven-point underdogs at home according to the FanDuel Sportsbook. The key to this game will be how the Bills will move the ball against a stingy New England defense. Josh Allen at $5,600 is too erratic to trust. With John Brown getting locked down on the outside by Stephon Gilmore, that will funnel targets to Cole Beasley at $4,700 and tight end Dawson Knox at $2,900.
For the Patriots, Tom Brady is more of a GPP play. His last two games at Buffalo have featured zero touchdown passes. Rex Burkhead has interesting appeal after looking like the superior running back to Sony Michel last week. Burkhead has traditionally also played well versus the Bills. In his last two games against them, he has totaled 25 carries, two rushing touchdowns and 117 rushing yards along with seven receptions for 65 yards. He will lose work to James White and Michel, though. Michel at $5,500 is going to be very low-owned in GPPs, but the matchup is actually pretty good. The Bills have allowed three running backs to have at least 15 carries and all of those backs got at least 60 rushing yards and they all scored at least one touchdown. Julian Edelman, if healthy, is a safe play. In his last two games versus the Bills, Edelman has totaled 15 receptions for 174 yards and one touchdown. For receivers under $5,000, Phillip Dorsett also has interesting appeal with Josh Gordon being occupied by Tre’Davious White on the outside.
CHIEFS AT LIONS
Patrick Mahomes has been on fire to start the season and will continue to be a value in DraftKings in Week 4 DFS. His price has actually decreased from $7,600 to $7,500 in DraftKings. The Lions have allowed an average of 287 passing yards to opposing quarterbacks this season. It looks like Mahomes is going to throw for another 300 yards and three touchdowns. Do you know what is an even scarier fact about this game? This is the first NFL regular season game that Mahomes will be playing in a dome.
Kerryon Johnson is in an absolute smash spot for Week 4 DFS. He is at just $5,400 and is coming off a career-high 20 rushing attempts. What is also interesting is that throughout Johnson’s career his yards/carry has always been either above five or below four. The Chiefs are allowing a league-high 6.2 yards/carry thus far. They also ranked last in that category in 2018, allowing 4.9 yards/carry. T.J. Hockenson also is a nice sleeper to utilize in GPPs at $3,300, as no team has allowed more targets this season to the tight end position than the Chiefs.
REDSKINS AT GIANTS
Daniel Jones at $5,300 is a quarterback that should be rostered across many DFS formats in Week 4 DFS. The same can be said for Case Keenum at $4,900 in GPPs against an absolutely terrible Giants’ secondary. The Redskins are allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to the quarterback position while the Giants are allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to the quarterback position. The lock for Week 4 DFS at wide receiver from a value standpoint has to be Terry McLaurin at $4,500. The rookie leads Washington in targets, receptions, and receiving yards after three weeks. Do check his status because of a hamstring injury.
CHARGERS AT DOLPHINS
Week 4 DFS sets up nicely for Austin Ekeler, who has been priced up to $8,000 after three weeks of severe underpricing. Ekeler is still going to be a great option in cash games, though, and will be continued to be heavily rostered. Both Ekler and Justin Jackson could be options in this game considering the Dolphins have allowed the most fantasy points to the running back position. They have allowed over 500 rushing yards over three weeks along with 32 red zone touches. Mike Williams is the most interesting play at just $4,900. He always has the chance to score multiple touchdowns, and Miami has allowed the second-most passing touchdowns to the wide receiver position.
PANTHERS AT TEXANS
This is a game that you will want to heavily roster players from. You can pay up for Deshaun Watson at $6,400 and stack him with DeAndre Hopkins ($7,700) who has yet to blow up yet. Will Fuller’s price at $4,500 continues to decline despite his massive upside to create splash plays. The Panthers have allowed the second-most receptions to the wide receiver position and the fourth-most targets.
On the Carolina side, things are equally appealing with Curtis Samuel at just $4,600 and D.J. Moore at $5,600. The Texans are allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to the wide receiver position this season.
RAIDERS AT COLTS
Marlon Mack is in a smash spot for GPPs in Week 4 DFS, and could possibly be even a cash viable option as well. Mack has now seen three straight games with at least 18 touches. Running back Nyheim Hines has seen just as many targets as Mack in the last two weeks. Mack is actually second on the team in routes run behind only T.Y. Hilton. Indianapolis has the fifth-highest run play rate in the NFL through the first three weeks. The Raiders defense played well against the run at home, but in Week 3 on the road, they allowed 211 rushing yards. As a result, Mack is in a surefire spot to exceed his $6,100 price tag. Last year against the Raiders Mack rushed for 132 yards and two touchdowns on 25 rushing attempts. Hilton does not look likely to play in this game so guys to consider in his absence include Eric Ebron ($4,000), Parris Campbell ($4,900), and Deon Cain ($3,200).
For the Raiders all the targets on the team are flowing through Darren Waller. He owns a more than 30 percent target market share of the Raiders’ passing offense. Yet he is still underpriced at $5,200 despite not reaching the end zone yet. The Colts ranked fifth-worst in the league at defending the tight end position and they are missing starting safety Malik Hooker.
BROWNS AT RAVENS
Nick Chubb is definitely an option to pay up for in GPPs at $6,400. People will see the matchup against Baltimore and be scared off playing him. However, Chubb is one of the rare featured three-down backs this season getting work in both the passing and run game. He played 97.2% of the snaps in Week 3. The Ravens also allowed 54 rushing yards on eight carries to LeSean McCoy and 62 rushing yards on nine carries to Darrel Williams. In this case, the opportunity share is the more important factor of Chubb’s projection than the fact that he is playing Baltimore. Demetrius Harris at $2,500 is also an interesting punt play at the tight end position that should see at least 90% of the snaps played.
The Browns are banged up in the secondary, making it another blow-up spot for Marquise Brown at $5,800. Lamar Jackson is always in play at $6,900 because of his dual-threat ability. The Ravens DST at $3,200 is also a great play against Baker Mayfield, who has struggled thus far. One thing to note is that the Ravens have not been great versus wide receivers. They have allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to the receiver position this season.
TITANS AT FALCONS
Marcus Mariota, at $5,100, is a quarterback you can play in GPPs this week, as the Falcons are going to be without their starting safety, Keanu Neal. Mariota has also shown a rushing floor of right around 30-yards per game over his last three played. The Titans could easily fall behind early in this game, so that could create a negative game flow that helps production for Dion Lewis at the dirt-cheap price at $3,700. Lewis out-snapped Henry last week when the Titans fell behind and that could easily happen again versus the high-powered Falcons’ offense on the road. Delanie Walker is the perfect play here to stack with Mariota at $4,800. The Falcons have struggled mightily in terms of containing the tight ends this season. They have allowed the fourth-most red-zone targets to the position.
Late Games
SEAHAWKS AT CARDINALS
The Cardinals defense cannot cover the tight end position. For three straight weeks, they have allowed an opposing tight end to score 21-plus fantasy points. In Week 4 DFS the Cardinals are playing Seahawks, setting the stage for tight end Will Dissly to perform well. He is priced up just $200 more since last week at $3,600. He will be a great cheap tight end to target considering he has three touchdown receptions in the last two weeks on 12 targets. Lock him in across all your cash lineups. Chris Carson is also an absolute lock of a play across GPP formats. The coaching staff has said they are going to stick with Carson going forward despite the issues he has had with fumbles. Rashaad Penny’s availability is in question, so Carson is still someone that should be receiving the majority of touches against a bad Arizona defense. His price is also extremely cheap at $5,700 for a back that sees work on all three downs.
BUCCANEERS AT RAMS
If you missed out on Mike Evans last week, he is someone to fade hard in Week 4 DFS against the Rams. Evans’ price has inflated to $7,100, whereas the value is in Chris Godwin, whose price fell to $6,000, something to consider since Los Angeles gives up the second-fewest fantasy points to the wide receiver position. For the Rams, Jared Goff is at home at $6,300, making him a target in GPPs with his positive home/road splits. If you play Goff, you need to stack him with Cooper Kupp ($6,500), who still is not priced high enough. The Rams use Kupp in the offense like a tight end, which is why all the targets that went to the running backs last year are no longer there. Those targets are going to Kupp, who is serving as the move tight end in the offense. The Buccaneers have been gashed by tight ends, allowing the second-most fantasy points to the position.
JAGUARS AT BRONCOS
Cornerback Jalen Ramsey might miss this game. This could create a nice opportunity for Courtland Sutton ($4,600) who would definitely benefit from the softer matchup.
Chris Conley is dealing with a knee injury so if he misses the game, the primary receivers for Jacksonville will be D.J. Chark ($5,100) and Dede Westbrook ($5,500). Since Chark has been playing like the true number one receiver, he will draw the coverage from Chris Harris, funneling targets the way of Westbrook.
VIKINGS AT BEARS
Everybody is off the Vikings’ passing offense. This sets the stage for a breakout spot for Stefon Diggs, who surely is going to be under-owned despite his salary at a mere $5,500. The Bears have allowed at least eight receptions, 83 yards receiving, and one touchdown reception to the opposing teams’ top wide receiver over the last two weeks. Diggs has historically been great against the Bears as well. He has scored seven touchdowns versus Chicago in just seven games versus them. As for Dalvin Cook, people will be scared to start him, because of the matchup. But at his price of $8,300, he is still cash viable because of all the touches he gets. He becomes an even better play if Bears defensive lineman Akiem Hicks is forced to miss the game. He is likely to be a game-time decision.
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