Michael Rasile 
NFL Week 3 Where’s the Money?
We are almost one quarter of the way through the NFL season and if feels like it just started. Thankfully we have been winning over here at Win Daily Sports, so make sure to check out all the content we’ve been putting out! And definitely check out the NFL Week 3 Betting Lines podcast where we go over all of these games as well as the Win Daily Sports NFL Odds page where we have the best odds from the books in your state. But for NFL Week 3, Where’s the Money?
One important thing to look at when checking in on the current lines is where they were and how we got here. Seeing a line move significantly should be a good reason to perk up your ears and keep an eye on what’s going on. It’s normally one of two things: sharp money came in hard, or the public collectively thinks something. One of these is not like the other.
Now I’m not here to tell you to “fade the public” at all costs, but when your Uber Driver is telling you to buy Bitcoin, you should probably sell your Bitcoin.
Last night was a great example of paying attention. Everyone and their mother (hand up: me included) was taking the Jaguars because what they’ve looked like the first few weeks of the season. The line opened at -1 to -1.5 to the Jags and almost immediately moved to -3 Jags. The TOTAL shot up from 44 to 48. A lot of people were betting the Jags and the OVER, but that didn’t come to fruition. Over 70% of the bets (tickets placed) and the handle (amount of money) were on the Jags for that game, with everyone forgetting it’s still the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Bucs at Broncos
This game has some interested numbers currently attached to it. The Bucs are Favored understandably against the Drew Lock-less Broncos, not to mention no Chris Harris or Von Miller. The line currently sits at -5.5 to the Bucs and has moved around a bit since opening.
Looking at where the money sits though is the interesting part. Number of bets being placed on the Bucs is much higher, 79%, but 97% of the money in coming in on the Broncos! This to me say Sharp Money and Big Money are in on Denver, while the public sees Tom Brady and that offense against a banged up team.
This doesn’t mean the Bucs will lose, or that the Broncos even cover, but it’s a good indication that Sharps believe there is some value in that that +5.5 to Denver and might be a place to look.
Packers at Saints
Aaron Rodgers is back and Drew Brees has one foot in his grave. This is what anyone on the TV will tell you, so you hear it and probably believe it at this point. Well, A-Rod never really went anywhere when he’s healthy and yes, Drew Brees doesn’t look great, but it was one game right?
This game currently sits at Saints -3 and after seeing what happened to them on Monday Night Football by being outright losers to the Raiders in Vegas, there may be cause for concern. There is also a lot of recency bias. The line opened at -6.5 to the Saints and has come down significantly.
While the two top wide receivers in the league should be showing out, it doesn’t look like we’ll get to see either of them on Sunday. The Saints run defense has been fantastic this year limiting Josh Jacobs and the Bucs running back room. It will be a hard road for Aaron Jones even as we have seen him balling out this year.
The public thinks the Packers do their thing and not lose by almost a full touchdown. Almost 70% of the bets are currently on the Packer in this case, but of course that’s only half the story. We currently are seeing Sharp Money and Big Money on the Saints and over 91% of the handle is flowing in that direction. Again, a cautionary tale on the Saints going on the road and losing a game we all thought they should win.
Chiefs at Ravens
In 2018 we were starting to get used to this Patrick Mahomes guy and all the magic he provides. Looking like they were going to lose, the Chiefs tied it late and won in overtime. Lamar Jackson is starting to make a name for himself.
In 2019, after both teams start 2-0 and easily look like two of the best teams in the AFC we get to see the new Ravens offense go up against the Chiefs passing attack. Mahomes has a lot of magic this time, but the Chiefs are up big. Ravens make a late push but end up falling by 5 points. Lamar Jackson wins the league MVP, while Mahomes takes Superbowl MVP honors.
In 2020, what do we expect to see? The line opened -2.5 to the Ravens and has creeped up over that magical number of 3 to -3.5. You may be saying “Superbowl champs are GETTING 3.5 points? How could I not take them?” Well, you share the same sentiment as the public does because currently 65% of the bets are on the Chiefs receiving those points.
With all that said, it is clear that the Big Money is in love with this Ravens team on Monday Night Football. 88% of the handle is currently in the Ravens favor with even our own Sia Nejad and Nick Bretwisch stating they think the Raven route the Chiefs. I’m personally staying away from this game because Mahomes has too much magic and I’m not about to bet against that.
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