adam.sardinha1@gmail.com 
Get ready for NFL Week 16 DFS? I cannot believe it has gone by this quickly. The regular season is almost over. But here we are back at it to win some money on DraftKings! We will go through each matchup game-by-game in the main slate, and I will give my best buys via DraftKings prices.
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Week 16 Early Games
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ ATLANTA FALCONS
If there is no DJ Chark – Willing to go back to Keelan Cole ($3,600). He saw a 24% target share last week and gets the Falcons who will be without Desmond Trufant. Chris Conley has also been an air yards machine.
It is worth going back to Leonard Fournette ($7,200) even after a lackluster performance last week. He is still seeing so much usage in the passing game (24% target share last week). Falcons defense is notorious for allowing receptions to backs and have a few injuries on defense this week.
Devonta Freeman ($6,000) is also a very good play versus the Jaguars defense that has been god-awful versus running backs. Worst defense versus running backs over the past four weeks. Also, like Russell Gage ($4,400) to take advantage of his matchup in the slot versus D.J. Hayden for the Jaguars. Could even pair Freeman with the Falcons DST ($3,200). Matt Ryan ($6,200) is always a solid option at home.
BALTIMORE RAVENS @ CLEVELAND BROWNS
Nobody is going to want to play any Cleveland Browns. However, I do believe there is sneaky value with their receivers because of volume. Odell Beckham Jr. ($5,800) had 13 targets last week (season-high). They are force-feeding him. He also had 133 air yards last week and ranks sixth in the NFL in air yards. The Ravens have also allowed the second-most targets and second-most red-zone targets to WRs. Jarvis Landry ($6,000) has also been great this season outside of last week and we have seen slot receivers do damage versus the Ravens’ secondary. Jamison Crowder had a nice fantasy day last Thursday night against Baltimore.
As for the Ravens, Lamar Jackson ($8,000) is still a lock-in cash games. That being said in GPPs you can stack him with Mark Andrews ($5,900). Or even stack him with Mark Ingram ($6,800) who looks to be in a great game script versus a defense that has allowed the eighth-most rushing yards to running backs over the past four weeks. Playing Jackson is not a weird play, but figuring out which Ravens player to pair him with can make your lineup different.
CAROLINA PANTHERS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Christian McCaffrey ($10,100) – There is a new QB under center this week for the Panther with Will Grier ($4,300). So there is a shroud of mystery surrounding this offense and what it will potentially look like in Week 16. Beat reporters out of Carolina have reported that “The key to Grier’s success on Sunday will be playing within the Panthers’ system. Whether it’s throwing deep or checking it down to running back Christian McCaffrey in the flat, Turner said Grier has to focus on taking what the defense gives him.”
So I do not think this is a week where you see a drastic change in the Panthers’ approach as they continue to feed CMC. If anything the coaches said they love Grier’s deep ball, so they could potentially take more shots downfield. This something the offense could not do with Kyle Allen. Via PFF Kyle Allen was ranked 37th out of 37 qualified passers in Adjusted Completion Percentage of passes attempted 20 yards or more downfield. Curtis Samuel is going to play which would make D.J. Moore ($6,900) an awesome contrarian play in GPPs to load upon. Since Week 9 Moore leads the NFL in receiving yards. As the alpha wide receiver, I do expect Grier to continue to throw his way.
The Colts could also be without starting safety Malik Hooker. Samuel himself could best set up nicely as a main deep target for Grier. The Colts defense is second-worst versus wide receivers, allowing the third-most yards and second-most touchdowns the last four weeks.
The Colts DST will probably very chalky so it is an easy defense to jump off in tournaments. The Panthers’ defense ranks near the bottom of the NFL in run defense (30th, 140.2 YPG), run plays of 20-plus (31st, 20) and 40-plus (31st, 5) yards allowed, and opponent rushing yards per attempt (32nd, 5.2). With Colts running back Marlon Mack ($6,200) just 81 yards away from reaching 1,000 in a season for the first time, this could be a big day for the Colts on the ground. The Panthers’ defense is banged up and cannot stop the run. However Mack is just a GPP play because he does not have a role in the passing game.
One thing to note as well is that Reich has some new offensive wrinkles he wants to unveil. With two games left, the Colts will be tweaking some things on offense to see how they go under quarterback Jacoby Brissett. “I mean, I have one subtle thing in mind that I obviously don’t want to share for game-planning reasons,” Reich said. “It would be maybe something philosophically and it could be a couple of subtleties of things off playbooks or maybe things that are in but we haven’t emphasized that maybe we need to emphasize a little bit more and see how we respond as an offense. If I had to take a guess on what a new offense could feature maybe we see more Nyheim Hines ($4,400)?
CINCINNATI BENGALS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS
Joe Mixon ($6,600) has been an absolute machine. He ran wild versus the Patriots and should be able to do a ton of damage versus the Dolphins who revived Barkley from the dead one week ago. The Dolphins defense is giving up the most rushing yards per game to opposing running backs (126.1). One thing to note about this game is rain is expected with severe thunderstorms, but it looks like it will hold off. It could be a game to get away from the pass-catchers and instead jump on the two DSTs, as we know both quarterbacks can implode at any time. Bengals DST and Dolphins DST are both at $2,900. Dolphins also rank dead-last versus wide receivers over the past four weeks so Tyler Boyd ($5,800) is set up extremely well.
Mike Gesicki ($3,400) has been getting a lot of targets lately and is a way to get exposure to this game as a relatively cheap option at tight end. Only Zach Ertz has run more routes than Gesicki over the past three weeks. Gesicki did see a season-high eight targets but just finished with a 4-47 stat line. The targets are there for Gesicki, so it is just a matter of time before he puts it together. It could easily happen this week versus the Bengals. Albert Wilson ($3,800) also saw 80% of the snaps last week and the Bengals have been more vulnerable to slot receivers. He saw eight targets last week which was one more than Parker. With most people flocking towards Ross as the GPP dart-throw, I think dollar for dollar Wilson is the better option.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ NEW YORK JETS
No Le’Veon Bell ($5,800) for me this week even at his discounted price. Gase hates him, the Steelers hate him, and his lack of involvement in the passing game just has me totally off him in Week 16. JuJu Smith-Schuster ($6,600) looks like he is coming back for the Steelers this week, which downgrades some of the other receivers around him. I will say that his presence is probably worse for Diontae Johnson ($4,700) than James Washington ($5,300). Washington will still have his role on the outside and has the best chemistry with the quarterback this season.
Since Week 9, Washington has had at least 69 receiving yards in five of his last seven games and is coming off a career-high 11 targets in Week 15. The Jets have been terrible on the perimeter versus wide receivers. Washington in that time span has owned a yard per routes run at 2.60 which is third-highest in the NFL at the receiver position behind only A.J. Brown (3.60) and Michael Thomas (2.80). Play Washington as a one-off in GPPs. Keep an eye out on if Robby Anderson ($5,700) is active or not. If he misses Jamison Crowder ($5,400) would be essentially a must-play.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ TENNESSEE TITANS
Derrick Henry is going to miss this game on Sunday. This upgrades Dion Lewis ($4,300) to the cash play lock to play over DeAndre Washington ($4,000). Marlon Mack failed to get it done versus the Saints on the road, but do not be fooled! This Saints’ defense is extremely banged up and the Titans offense has much more to offer. Do not overlook the fact that the Saints’ will be getting Janoris Jenkins added so the Saints DST ($2,700) could be sneaky.
A.J. Brown is likely to get the Marshon Lattimore treatment, but he and Ryan Tannehill have just been on fire so a simple stack between those two and Michael Thomas probably will not even be that popular. Tannehill shreds at home and Corey Davis is also dealing with another injury which could force even more targets the way of Brown.
NEW YORK GIANTS @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS
A lower owned receiver that I do not think many people will be on is Golden Tate ($4,800). The Redskins will be without their primary slot cornerback this week after he was placed on IR. Breaking down the usage of Tate alongside Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton you will find that it was indeed Tate that ran the majority of snaps from the slot in Week 15. He had 29 snaps from inside, Shepard had 17, and Slayton was always used on the outside. However, targets from the slot favored Shepard; he had six targets for 78 yards on five receptions. Tate had just one reception for 51 yards on four targets from the slot. Quinton Dunbar is also out for the Redskins which makes all the Giants receivers even that much more relevant. Perhaps even some Daniel Jones action.
The Redskins DST ($2,800) is probably the best lock in play at defense for cash games this week. They are at home and get Daniel Jones who has been an absolute turnover machine. Factor in that Jones may not be as elusive as he usually is coming off an injury so there is a strong chance the Redskins force some turnovers and sacks in this game. Dwayne Haskins ($4,700) gets his second shot versus the Giants that are allowing 311 passing yards per game on the road this season.
Haskins had his best game as a pro in Week 15 throwing for over 250 yards and two scores versus a lifeless Eagles secondary. He draws another as equally juicy matchup this week versus the Giants who will be without Janoris Jenkins. I love pairing Haskins with Terry McLaurin ($6,200) and Steven Sims Jr. ($4,000). With 18 targets over the past two weeks and a date with the New York Giants, Sims is an interesting guy to add in deeper formats. He has run just one fewer route than McLaurin but has seven more total targets in the last two weeks. Sims is the Redskins’ primary slot receiver. As long as Trey Quinn continues to miss Sims. Jr. could continue to see targets for Haskins.
Week 16 Late Games
DETROIT LIONS @ DENVER BRONCOS
Philip Lindsay ($5,300) – to the grave? Not quite yet. Since Denver’s Week 10 bye, he’s averaging 16.0 opportunities per game, which is nearly double Royce Freeman’s 8.2. This could be a get-right matchup for him, against a Lions defense that is giving up the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs. Be warned that Lindsay is far from a core play because Freeman is also getting more looks in the passing game. The Lions are also banged up at the linebacker position and have allowed the second-most yards per game.
I also like Courtland Sutton and Noah Fant ($3,700). In three games with Lock, Sutton has a 23% target market share and should be able to take advantage versus a weak Lions’ secondary. Tim Patrick ($3,600) is another interesting option as the WR2 if Sutton is not able to make noise versus Darius Slay. Broncos DST ($3,500) also needs to be considered with David Blough at quarterback.
Danny Amendola ($4,900) had a 30% target market share with no Marvin Jones and has seen at least eight targets with David Blough under center. Kenny Golladay ($6,500) bombed last week in a smash spot, so of course, you need to buy back in. Broncos rank in the bottom ten in terms of fantasy points allowed to wide receivers over the past four weeks.
OAKLAND RAIDERS @ LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
Mike Williams ($5,000) is coming off nine targets and he has had at least 55 receiving yards in seven straight games! DeAndre Washington ($4,000) was the clear pay-down option in cash before the Dion Lewis/Derrick Henry news. However, with Henry likely to miss I prefer Lewis who has nobody like Jalen Richard potentially taking touches. Also, the Chargers have been a top-ten defense versus running backs in fantasy over the past four weeks. Keep in mind two starting offensive linemen for the Raiders are out this week as well (Trent Brown, Richie Incognito).
I also know some will be leaning towards Melvin Gordon ($5,600) at his discounted price, but the guy fumbled twice last week. Also, Austin Ekeler ($6,100) is approaching some sure-fire milestones. He is 108 receiving yards away from 1,000. Look for him to see heavy pass-game involvement.
DALLAS COWBOYS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
The gameplan for the Cowboys should be to just target whoever Avonte Maddox is covering. That’s what the Redskins did and it worked out very well. In this case, there is a strong chance that it is Randall Cobb ($4,100) and Michael Gallup ($5,500) are the receivers to stack with Dak Prescott ($6,400) in GPPs. Adding Ezekiel Elliott ($7,900) has a core piece in GPPs I like as well. The Cowboys could lean more on the ground game if Prescott is indeed hurt and Elliott has owned the Eagles defense in the pass despite them being an effective run-stuffer.
If you do not trust Prescott, I actually like flipping the quarterbacks and using Carson Wentz ($5,800) on the other side. The Cowboys have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to the QB position over the past two weeks. He is also a very easy player to stack with Zach Ertz ($6,400) and the cash lock wide receiver in Greg Ward ($4,200). Miles Sanders ($6,400) is in another great spot to see a ton of work (22.5 touches per game over the last two weeks) and Dallas Goedert ($4,100) surely will be under-owned. Cowboys rank-fifth worst versus the tight end over the past two weeks. Goedert is the anti-chalk Eagles play in GPPs, but he is in a good spot regardless. There will be no Nelson Agholor today.
ARIZONA CARDINALS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
The game has the setup of a Seahawks onslaught. Jacob Hollister ($4,200) has the juicy matchup versus the Cardinals defense that gets destroyed by TE’s on a weekly basis. They also got run over by Nick Chubb setting up again a smash spot at home for Chris Carson ($8,500) across all game formats, but especially in cash. Carson has rushed for over 100 yards in two career starts versus the Cardinals.
Russell Wilson ($7,000) again in a great spot. Just be wary that Luke Willson is returning to the lineup possibly so that could put a slight damper on Hollister SZN. The Seahawks offense has the second-highest implied team total on the main slate and is at home. Kyler Murray will probably trying to catch points here and is probably due for some TD positive regression after Kenyan Drake scored 4 TDs the week prior.
Also do not forget any of these lower-priced Seattle wide receivers in Malik Turner ($3,500) or David Moore ($3,300). There is no more Josh Gordon so one of these guys is going to see a bump. Arizona has allowed the most passing yards in the NFL this season, the highest opponent quarterback rating, the most touchdown passes, the most explosive passes (16 or more yards) and has just seven interceptions. At the cheaper price tag, I like Moore the best.
Kenyan Drake ($6,300) since joining the Cardinals has played in over 76% of the snaps while averaging almost 19 touches per game. Seattle over the past four weeks has allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to the running back position and most receiving yards over the past four weeks. There are a lot of injuries to keep track of this game as well. Christian Kirk ($5,600) is expected to play, but still, Damiere Byrd ($3,700) presents an interesting late-game swap pivot. They are in a potentially great spot with the Cardinals projected to be throwing a lot and they could be without safety Q’Andre Diggs and Shaq Griffin. D.J. Moore had no problem doing damage versus them last week.
