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Get ready for NFL Week 14 DFS? I cannot believe it has gone by this quickly. The regular season is almost over. But here we are back at it to win some money on DraftKings with increased bankrolls from a profitable Thanksgiving slate! We will go through each matchup game-by-game in the main slate, and I will give my best buys via DraftKings prices.
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Week 14 Early Games
CAROLINA PANTHERS @ ATLANTA FALCONS
This game has to be about Devonta Freeman ($5,400). The Panthers have been downright out awful versus running backs this season allowing the most fantasy points to the position. Freeman’s worst game at home this season was all the way back in Week 2 where he scored 9.4 fantasy points versus a stout Philadelphia Eagles defense. He did score 4.5 points versus the Rams at home, but a reminder that was the game where Freeman was ejected. I think he is an easy cash play running back this week after coming back from injury and getting 21 touches. In his last three home games versus Carolina Freeman has scored at least one touchdown and averaged 87 yards from scrimmage. Also, Ian Thomas ($2,500) looks to be the prime punt play tight end this week with Greg Olsen out with a concussion.
BALTIMORE RAVENS @ BUFFALO BILLS
In GPPs, I still think even a naked Josh Allen ($6,200) is still in play because of his rushing upside. Baltimore is allowing 4.5 yards per attempt this season, so both Allen and Devin Singletary ($5,700) provide interesting options in tournaments. Singletary over the past three weeks has averaged 18 touches per game. He has also seen 20 or more carries in is last two home games. Mark Ingram ($5,900) is really cheap and the Bills’ weakness on defense is against the run. Ingram is averaging over 20 fantasy points per game on the road this season.
CINCINNATI BENGALS @ CLEVELAND BROWNS
Over the past four weeks, the Bengals have allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points to the running back position. So perhaps Nick Chubb ($8,000) is in not such a smash spot that we might all think on the surface. Also, consider Kareem Hunt ($6,600) has outscored Chubb twice in the last four weeks.
Odell Beckham Jr. ($6,300) only has seven red-zone targets on the season, with zero red-zone touchdowns. Could be inlined for some positive touchdown regression just based on the number of red-zone targets he is seeing. He is top five in air yards over the past four weeks. Beckham also averages more fantasy points at home than on the road, and he is priced beneath Jarvis Landry ($6,500) for the first time all season.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
So Parris Campbell ($3,200) is definitely in play this week in DFS. He practiced fully on Wednesday and should see a full workload of snaps with all the injuries across the Colts’ offense. The matchup is great versus the Buccaneers who have allowed the most fantasy points to the wide receiver position. Specifically, receivers have been heavily targeted in the red zone versus the Buccaneers and Campbell has 21% of his targets (four) come to him in the red zone. I almost prefer Campbell in cash games and Marcus Johnson ($3,600) in GPPs. He was second on the team in targets and fits the deep-threat T.Y. Hilton role. Jack Doyle ($4,600) is still too cheap as a locked-in tight end play with no Eric Ebron versus the Buccaneers’ defense that ranks fifth-worst versus the position.
The Colts DST ($2,400) is also a great play in cash games facing the turnover-prone Jameis Winston.
Buccaneers
Last week we saw both Mike Evans ($7,200) and Chris Godwin ($7,300) both score under ten fantasy points for the first time all season. Kenny Moore has been ruled out in this game and he is the second-highest graded slot cornerback by PFF in terms of passer rating allowed when targeted (71.5). Godwin from the slot ranks third in yards per route run (2.14) and is tied for the most receiving touchdowns from the slot (five). The Colts over the past four weeks have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to the wide receiver position. Evans is due for some positive regression as well ranking sixth overall in air yards over the past three weeks.
WASHINGTON REDSKINS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS
From a safety perspective, Aaron Rodgers ($6,800) is in another good spot at home where he is averaging 22.5 points per game. Over the past four weeks, the Redskins have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to the quarterback position. I will not be playing Davante Adams ($8,000) in cash games, because of his price but he is worth paying up for in lineups with Rodgers. I will go back to the well in large field GPPs with Marques Valdes-Scantling ($3,900). All of his production this season has come in home games this year.
Aaron Jones ($6,700) is again a tournament option in GPPs, because of his massive upside, but not in cash formats because of Jamaal Williams ($4,800). Williams has at least 13 touches and 50 scrimmage yards in each of the last three games. The Redskins have allowed two backs to exceed 50 scrimmage yards five times this year. The Packers DST ($4,000) is the most expensive defense on the slate, but again like last week with Carolina DST the Redskins just ran the ball all over that defense causing them to just score six points. That game script could easily happen again with the Packers allowing the sixth-most rushing yards to the running back position.
Redskins
Washington is not an offense that you are looking for a ton of shares. Derrius Guice ($4,900) blew up last week and has a similarly good matchup versus the Packers who have allowed an average of 5.0 yards per rushing attempt (third-highest) at home this season. The only question is the usage of Guice. According to their offensive coordinator, Kevin O’Connell here is what he had to say regarding the divide of touches.
He said via RedskinsWire, “Derrius’ ability to make people miss in space is something that I’m always trying to find on early downs in the passing game. So, from the standpoint of touches ‒ that’s how I talk to AP and Derrius, I say touches. One guy might have 10 carries, the other guy might have five, but then the other guy with five carries has four receptions. It’s touches…”
If the goal is to get Guice involved in early downs, this is great in this spot. The Packers have allowed on first and second down a 59% success rate to RBs on rushing plays and a 48% success rate on RB passing plays. There is some additional value to be had with the two top Redskins’ wide receivers in Kelvin Harmon ($3,700), and Terry McLaurin ($5,100). The Redskins are down receivers across the roster with Paul Richardson, Trey Quinn, and Deshavor Everett all inactive for Sunday.
DENVER BRONCOS @ HOUSTON TEXANS
From a value standpoint, Deshaun Watson ($6,500) could be one of the best plays on the slate. Watson, in his last eight games, has scored under 19 fantasy points just once. That came in a tough matchup on the road in Baltimore. Versus Denver, with his full complement of weapons including Will Fuller ($5,500) he is a solid cash play option that has that rushing upside. And over the last four weeks, the Broncos have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to the quarterback position. No quarterback has scored less than 17 fantasy points versus them in the last four weeks and when they faced the running quarterbacks of Josh Allen and Jacoby Brissett they allowed an average of 45 rushing yards.
I think you can even stack Fuller with Watson even in cash games and this comes via great stats from Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) Over the last three weeks the Broncos rank 28th in explosive pass rate allowed. With DeAndre Hopkins ($7,400) preoccupied with Chris Harris, Fuller should be able to dominate his matchup versus the fringy Isaac Yiadom. The last time Houston played the Broncos was last season when Watson threw for 213 yards and two touchdowns, with 38 rushing yards. Hopkins went for over 100 yards in that game. In Texans’ stacks, you can figure to add either Carlos Hyde ($4,500) or Duke Johnson Jr. ($3,900) with the Texans owning the third-highest team total on the slate. You can easily bring the stack back with Courtland Sutton ($6,400), Philip Lindsay ($5,300) or Noah Fant ($3,400). The Texans have allowed the most receptions to running backs this season and 15 TDs to wide receivers.
DETROIT LIONS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS
You cannot play Dalvin Cook ($9,500) in cash games this week. There’s just too much risk involved and the team could easily shy away from him if the Vikings get up big in the game. He should see a dip in ownership and could easily smash in just one half so both he and Alexander Mattison ($4,500) are GPP plays in Week 14. Kirk Cousins ($6,700) should also not be overlooked because of the matchup and the scenario that with Cook banged up that the team leans more on the passing game. The Lions over the past four weeks have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to the quarterback position. Laquon Treadwell ($3,000) should see more work with Adam Thielen out and Stefon Diggs ($7,600) should smash again after putting up 24.3 fantasy points the last time he faced the Lions. Kyle Rudolph ($4,400) has also been a touchdown machine since Thielen left the offense and that should continue versus the Lions. He has three touchdowns in his last two games versus Detriot.
If you are looking to bring it back with Lions, look at these two receivers: Danny Amendola ($4,000) and Kenny Golladay ($6,700). Amendola led the receivers in targets (eight) and Golladay will draw the matchup versus Xavier Rhodes who has been downright terrible this season. The Vikings have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to wide receivers over the past four weeks. T.J. Hockenson actually led the team in targets last week (11) so in his place, Logan Thomas ($2,600) could see work.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
I will have zero shares of Drew Brees ($5,900) this week. The matchup is awful, the 49ers are getting Dee Ford back and the Saints will most likely be missing both Andrus Peat and Terron Armstead. Overall the Saints’ offense is a fade for me even at home outside of Alvin Kamara ($7,000) and Michael Thomas ($8,300) in GPPs or Thomas in cash. The 49ers have allowed the eighth-most receptions to backs over the past four weeks.
You cannot play Tevin Coleman ($5,100) in this spot, but I do think that it is worth it to have exposure to either Matt Breida ($4,600) or Raheem Mostert ($4,600) and I lean Breida in this spot. We are primed for recency bias so Breida might get overlooked despite the fact that he is going to be fresh after missing the last few weeks. The matchup is also not as bad as you would think. The Saints are missing multiple linebackers and have signed Manti Te’O off the street. Over the last four weeks, they have allowed the tenth-most fantasy points to the running back position. Emmanuel Sanders ($5,800) is also in a great spot to smash this week as well. The Saints have been extremely vulnerable from the slot by allowing the second-most receptions to slot receivers.
MIAMI DOLPHINS @ NEW YORK JETS
Ryan Fitzpatrick ($6,000) and Sam Darnold ($6,000) are two of the lower-priced quarterbacks that are potential smash plays this week. The Jets defense is a pass funnel defense and the Dolphins cannot run the ball anyway. New York will also be without their best defensive player Jamal Adams which just screams that there will be so big plays in this game. Since Week 6 Miami has the number one red zone offense (80% success rate). Jets rank third-worst in the NFL in red-zone efficiency this year. They have allowed the most red-zone targets to backs so a Fitzpatrick-Patrick Laird ($4,100) stack is a legitimate play this week.
Week 14 Late Games
PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS
With no JuJu Smith-Schuster, the two Steelers’ wide receivers that immediately come in to play are James Washington ($6,000) and Diontae Johnson ($4,300). Over the past four weeks, the Cardinals have allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to the wide receiver position. Washington has back to back weeks with 98 receiving yards and a touchdown, be that on seven receptions with 11 targets. There is a running back by committee in Pittsburgh as well, so even Benny Snell ($6,100), seems like a fade at his price in a low-scoring offense despite the matchup. I also do not love the Steelers DST ($3,500) because the Cardinals have just not been super turnover-prone. They rank third in the NFL in fewest giveaways allowed this season.
Vance McDonald ($4,300), has the matchup of all matchups with tight ends absolutely destroying Arizona. They have allowed 18.1 PPR points per game to opponents’ No. one tight ends. I still think I prefer paying up slightly for Doyle in cash formats. For Arizona, it is a very difficult matchup on paper so all the plays here are GPP plays. Kyler Murray ($5,800) has the rushing upside that can also make things happen and could easily be stacked with Christian Kirk ($5,200). Kirk has 26 targets over his last three games.
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Melvin Gordon ($6,400) is definitely one of the best running back plays on the week. Jacksonville has given up the second-most fantasy points to running backs over the past four weeks with six rushing touchdowns. With Gordon seeing double-digit carries the last three weeks and up to 20 total touches he is a nice cash play option. Also, I am fine going back to D.J. Chark ($6,200) after he burned people last week. Leonard Fournette ($7,800) sees almost up to 30 touches per game and gets the Chargers that rank sixth-worst versus running backs over the past six weeks.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Tom Brady ($6,100) generally plays better at home and with the struggles on offense players will surely be clicking elsewhere than TB12. The Chiefs defense has been playing better, but still, on the road, they are allowing the second-highest yards per rush attempt (5.8) and 1.7 passing touchdowns. That bodes extremely well for Sony Michel ($5,600) who if you were ever going to play…this would be the spot. The Chiefs’ cornerbacks are better on the perimeter which does not really match up well with the Patriots whose two top receivers Julian Edelman ($7,100) and Mohamed Sanu ($5,400) lineup inside. The Chiefs have also been terrible versus the tight end position and Benjamin Watson ($3,000) does rank in the top ten in routes run over the past two weeks at the position. He’s got some juice left! If you do not roster Michel than go with James White ($5,500) as the Chiefs have a major weakness versus pass-catching backs.
With the tough matchup on paper people will be looking to fade Patrick Mahomes ($7,000), but do not do that. He is an excellent GPP play. Last year in both games versus New England he averaged over 300 passing yards and multiple touchdowns. Mahomes also tends to put up better numbers on the road, and with the Patriots down to a third-string center, it is not out of the realm of possibilities they are unable to play ball control and that gives more chances for Mahomes and the Chiefs offense to strike. In this game I fading Travis Kelce ($6,200) in favor of the Chiefs’ receivers. There are so many better plays at tight end and there’s a chance Stephon Gillmore covers Kelce.
TENNESSEE TITANS @ OAKLAND RAIDERS
Adam Humphries has been ruled out in this game, which could create some great opportunities for A.J. Brown ($5,300) against a defense that ranks at the bottom of the league in explosive plays allowed. He has been Tannehill’s number one target since becoming the starter in Week 7. He ranks top-10 of receivers in yards per route run (2.42) over that time span.
That being said the Titans are dealing with their own injuries with their cornerbacks which could potentially mean a big day for Tyrell Williams ($5,000) who been all but absent since returning from his injury. I prefer Derek Carr ($5,000) because of his price and he is at home over Ryan Tannehill ($5,800) who as I projected last week struggled fantasy-wise on the road. Raiders DST ($2,700) is sure to be overlooked in GPPs, but against Tannehill at home, they could perform well above expectations.
