adam.sardinha1@gmail.com 
Get ready for NFL Week 13 DFS? I cannot believe it has gone by this quickly. The regular season is almost over. But here we are back at it to win some money on DraftKings with increased bankrolls from Thanksgiving! We will go through each matchup game-by-game in the main slate, and I will give my best buys via DraftKings prices.
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Week 13 Early Games
TENNESSEE @ INDIANAPOLIS
Titans
Since Ryan Tannehill ($5,700) took over as the starting quarterback in Week 7 he is the No.2 quarterback in points scored behind only Lamar Jackson. He has scored at least 19 fantasy points in each start. However, with the Titans on the road, I think Tannehill and the Titans’ offense is a trap play this week. Something that needs to be addressed is that since Week 7, the Titans have played four of their five games at home.
Dating back to his days in Miami, Tannehill has always been good at home. He threw multiple touchdowns in four of five home games started last season. Derrick Henry ($7,600) is dealing with a hamstring injury and averages just 3.5 yards per attempt on the road versus 5.8 yards per carry at home. Henry’s last game at Indianapolis he rushed for just 46 yards. Teams are averaging just 23 rushing attempts, 231 passing yards, and 1.3 passing touchdowns at Indy.
The Colts have been good versus quarterbacks recently allowing the tenth-fewest fantasy points to the position over the past four weeks. They have been even better versus running backs allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points to backs. Where the Colts have been more vulnerable has been versus pass-catching running backs where over the past four weeks they have allowed the most receptions (30) to the position. This could make Dion Lewis ($3,400) interesting.
Colts
With me being down on the Titans, I do rather like the Colts DST ($3,100), to be overlooked at home. Especially considering that you can stack them with the new workhorse back Colts’ running back Johnathan Williams ($5,300), who is in line to be the Colts’ starting running back Week 13 with Marlon Mack (hand) ruled out, Mike Chappell of Fox 59 News Indianapolis reports.
The spot is great for Williams with the Titans allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per game to the position over the past four weeks. Williams also led the backfield with three receptions and ran more routes than Nyheim Hines ($4,200). Hines is also interesting because of the lack of pass-catching weapons in the Colt’s offense with Eric Ebron and T.Y. Hilton both out. He could easily see a large uptick in targets. Tennesse this season has allowed the second-most receptions and most targets to running backs this season.
Nobody is going to play Jacoby Brissett ($5,900) without Hilton, but Brissett back in Week 4 put up 23.5 fantasy points versus Oakland with no Hilton. With some rushing upside, I like him in GPPs. The Titans have not been good on defense allowing the seventh-most fantasy points per game to the quarterback over the past four weeks. Wide receiver Zach Pascal ($4,700) is a nice salary relief cash play, with other receivers like Paris Campbell ($3,200) and Marcus Johnson ($3,100) who will be playing the Hilton deep-threat role as GPP plays. Jack Doyle ($3,300) is sure to be a cash-fire lock at tight end in cash games with tight end Mo-Alie Cox ($2,500) becoming the GPP play.
SAN FRANCISCO @ BALTIMORE
49ers
An interesting fact about the 49ers in what they have allowed to fantasy QBs via Pro Football Focus, 47.7 points in two games against Kyler Murray and the Cardinals, and 39.2 in six games (6.5 per game) to everyone else. So don’t fret about the Lamar Jackson ($7,000) matchup. Murray rushed for more than 100 yards and a score in two games against the stout 49ers defense. Both teams rank top-12 versus the running back position, so it’s tough to love either Tevin Coleman ($5,900) or Mark Ingram ($6,000). Coleman has not scored more than 13 fantasy points since his 40 point explosion versus the Panthers and finds himself consistently in a timeshare with all the other 49ers’ running backs.
Matt Breida ($4,900) looks to be returning making Coleman an easier fade though I do think the 49ers can gain some ground running the ball. One thing to note about the Ravens run defense is that they have not been very efficient. They are allowing 4.4 yards per carry over the last three weeks and the third-highest yards per carry at home (4.9). They have allowed a 51% success rate versus running plays. For reference, the Chiefs who notoriously are bad versus the run are at 54%.
Ravens
Ingram even with a difficult matchup is still the top running back on the best offense in the league. Since Week 9 he has scored over 18 fantasy points in three of his last four games. No team runs the ball more at home (36.6/game) and the 49ers have actually allowed 4.7 per rushing attempt this season. That is the same allowed as the Miami Dolphins. We all saw what Ingram did to that team.
Marquise Brown ($5,300) saw seven targets last week, which was his highest output since Week 4. And though the matchup is tough the 49ers have allowed the fifth-most receptions to the wide receiver position over the past four weeks. Both Emmanuel Sanders ($6,300) and Deebo Samuel ($5,200) draw extremely difficult matchups, but again there should be volume for them. Ravens have allowed the third-most receptions to receivers, and second-most targets over the past four weeks.
They combined for three targets last week, so they should both be due for some positive regression. 49ers rank number one versus the tight end position, but they have played virtually no one. Mark Andrews ($5,700) is in a smash spot to bounce back. Also not sure why the Ravens DST ($2,800) is the cheaper of the two options, so that is a defense you can lock and load. They have scored double-digit fantasy points since Week 7.
NEW YORK @ CINCINNATI
Bengals
Andy Dalton ($4,700) is back under center for the Bengals and man is he too cheap. Before he was benched for Ryan Finley, Dalton had scored under 19 fantasy points just twice in two of his matchups. Those came in games in predictability difficult spots versus the Ravens and Steelers. That is not the case in Week 13, where he draws the Jets’ defense that is a pass funnel defense. The Jets on the road this season have allowed 2.2 touchdowns per game, and overall by PFF rank eighth-worst in pass-rush grade.
The best part with Dalton is that he can easily be stacked with some of his receivers Tyler Boyd ($5,500) and Auden Tate ($3,800). Boyd with Finley averaged just 6.7 targets per game, but with Dalton, he was averaging 10.3 targets per game. Tate had 13 red-zone targets with Dalton under center. The Jets have allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to wide receivers over the past four weeks and have allowed the third-most touchdowns to the position this season. Bengals DST ($2,800) is also an interesting GPP play as Darnold has shown tendencies to turn the ball over.
Jets
Speaking of Sam Darnold ($6,100) he has now scored over 22 fantasy points in three straight weeks and has scored over 30 fantasy points in his last two games. The Bengals have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks over the past four weeks, so Darnold is an easy plugin guy this week. You will want to combine with a combination of Le’Veon Bell ($7,200), Jamison Crowder ($5,600), and Ryan Griffin ($4,300). The Bengals have allowed over an average of 100 rushing yards to the two last top running backs they have played, but those guys just could not find the end zone. Bell also got vultured three times near the goalline with Darnold rushing a touchdown and throwing two one-yard passes. Bell should be nice cash play this week, but only a GPP play in stacks around this game.
Crowder is the best receiver to pair here because the Bengals are more specifically bad versus slot receivers. They give up the fourth-fewest fantasy points to receivers outside. Crowder is coming off a huge dud (3.6) so look for him to bounce-back. I have to mention Griffin here as well because the Bengals have been the worst-team versus the position over the past four weeks.
CLEVELAND @ PITTSBURGH
Baker Mayfield ($6,200) has been playing better, but the Steelers are allowing less than 15 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks at home this season. This game just projects to be more ugly than anything else with the total at a mere 39.5 which is the second-lowest on the main slate. Both teams rank top-three in fewest points allowed to the running back position. Nick Chubb ($7,800) would have to score multiple touchdowns to smash, but Pittsburgh has allowed just four rushing touchdowns all year. With his pass game usage also in question, not a Chubb week for me.
Jarvis Landry ($6,400) is still Mayfield’s guy and continues to be undervalued. He leads the league in targets inside the ten-yard line. There is no Juju Smith-Schuster with his injury so the Steelers will turn to James Washington ($5,000) who has been heating up. Washington is averaging an impressive 76.5 yards per game over his last four. Play Washington over Diontae Johnson ($4,500) who saw his fewest targets (2) in the only start for the one and only Duck Hodges. Both DSTs are definitely in play but the Browns ($2,600) might be the best cash play option at the price. Six interceptions, and six sacks over the past two weeks.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ MIAMI DOLPHINS
Eagles DST ($3,600) offers potentially slate-breaking ability so they are worth paying up for in GPPs. Miles Sanders ($5,400) is a running back for cash games because he is going to see the majority of touches with Jordan Howard likely out again. Miami allows the most rushing attempts per game to running backs. He is coming off 15 touches which were his highest output of the season. In large field GPPs, ($3,000) Jay Ajayi could be worth a dart throw with the potential revenge game narrative.
Carson Wentz ($5,800) finally gets the return of all his weapons so we could see an Eagles onslaught versus Miami. The Dolphins have allowed third-most passing touchdowns to wide receivers over the past four weeks, and the most red-zone targets to tight ends. The Alshon Jeffery ($5,100) price is excellent, for a player that averages seven targets per game. Only one receiver that saw at least seven targets versus the Dolphins did not score double-digit fantasy points. Zach Ertz ($6,700) is questionable with a hamstring injury so if he were to miss Dallas Goedert ($4,100) would become the chalkiest play on the slate.
Do not pay the $5,700 for DeVante Parker, from a standpoint that the Eagles have been playing much better on defense. Over the past four weeks, they have allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points to the position. With no Jakeem Grant, I am very intrigued by Albert Wilson ($3,900). 13 targets over his last two games and we know how fast this guy is.
WASHINGTON REDSKINS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS
The first thing is first, you will play Christian McCaffrey ($10,500) in cash games. There’s also a chance that this is the game where Derrius Guice ($4,500) breaks out. The Panthers have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to backs this season and will be without defensive tackle Dontari Poe who tore his quad last week. The touches are hard to project, but even Guice saw 11 carries last week and played 43% of the snaps. Since Week 8, six running backs have faced the Panthers and saw 11 carries. Four scored double-digit fantasy points.
DJ Moore ($6,800) leads the NFL in targets over the past four weeks (45) and is still too cheap. Terry McLaurin ($5,600) is still is seeing the dominant share of targets and the Panthers are allowing the sixth-most fantasy points per game to the receiver position over the past four weeks. If you are looking for a cheap option rookie Kelvin Harmon ($3,600) has had back to back weeks with at least six targets and Paul Richardson Jr. is out.
Greg Olsen ($4,400) will probably garner low ownership because of his price. He is wedged lower than all the “elite” tight ends, but higher than all the “punt” plays. However, the matchup is nice and he is getting targeted in the offense. The Redskins have allowed the second-most touchdowns and fourth-most red zone touches to the tight end over the past four weeks. The Panther DST ($3,800) is fade for me because of this game projects much more to being run-heavy from the Redskins side, which gives fewer chances for turnovers. As the most expensive defense on the slate, I would prefer paying down for better options like the Eagles, Steelers, or Packers.
GREEN BAY PACKERS @ NEW YORK GIANTS
I actually like both quarterbacks in this Week 13 game. Aaron Rodgers ($6,500) looks prime to absolutely shred this Giants’ secondary that has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks over the past four weeks. This game could shootout potentially because the Packers’ defense has been somewhat leaky. They are allowing 255 passing yards per game, and all of Daniel Jones ($5,600) 30 plus point games this season have come when the defense allowed 30 or more points. Green Bay has allowed the fifth-highest passer rating to quarterbacks over the past three weeks. Jones also has a rushing upside. The Saquon Barkley ($7,400) price continues to drop but with all the injuries to other Giants’ offensive players, he seems primed for a big game. The Packers have allowed the third-most fantasy points to running backs over the past four weeks.
I also love Aaron Jones ($6,800) in this spot at his price for cash games, with the narrative behind head coach Matt LeFleur blatantly stating that Jones needs to be more involved. Meanwhile, LeFleur also mentioned that in regards to Davante Adams ($7,000), that they were too reliant on forcing the ball his way. Adams is the high-priced chalky wide receiver that you need to fade this week. As bad as the Giants are they are much better at home in their secondary. Only one receiver (Adam Thielen, Week 5) has blown up versus them in New York.
As I mentioned previously the Giants will be without Golden Tate, Evan Engram, and Rhett Ellison. That gives a boost to Sterling Shepard ($4,900), who is shockingly cheaper than Darius Slayton ($5,300). Shepard is the play in cash games, with Slayton more on the GPP side of things.
For the other Packers’ skill players, Jamaal Williams ($4,500) is second on the team in targets over the past three weeks, followed by Allen Lazard ($3,700). Lazard should see a lot of DeAndre Baker who has struggled mightily in coverage this season. The receiver with the highest ceiling is definitely Valdes-Scantling ($4,100). Tight end gets interesting with Giants’ Kaden Smith ($2,900) who will start Sunday. Smith caught five of six targets for 17 yards and a touchdown in last week’s 19-14 loss to the Bears, playing 98 percent of snaps with both Engram and Ellison inactive.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
As we say every single week Jameis Winston ($6,300) is set up in another great spot to blow the competition in tournaments. His price a great value with the other quarterbacks on the slate. I called it being a Chris Godwin ($7,700) week last week, so it’s time to pivot and project Mike Evans ($6,900) who is priced below 7K. The Jaguars have allowed the most explosive passing plays as of late, setting up nicely for Evans. Over the past four weeks, they have also allowed the most fantasy points to backs which should be nice for Ronald Jones ($5,100) who is still seeing the majority of work in the Buccaneers’ backfield. Definitely one of the cheaper RBs to target in cash games as he is still seeing work in the passing game.
Nick Foles ($5,700) over the past two weeks, has attempted the most passing attempts (95) and had the most dropbacks (103) of all quarterbacks in the NFL. You have to love the matchup versus the Buccaneers that have allowed the second-most fantasy points to quarterbacks over the past four weeks. All of his receivers are vastly underprices as well with D.J. Chark ($6,600), Dede Westbrook ($5,000), and Chris Conley ($4,500). Conley, in particular, has 16 targets over the past two weeks with ten receptions for over 100 yards.
In Week 12, Conley led the Jaguars in air yards and over the past two weeks, Conley ranks fifth in the NFL overall in the total air yards (269) with an 18% target market share. It’s also extremely helpful that Conley draws the Buccaneers who have allowed the most fantasy points to wide receivers over the past four weeks. And if you are looking to get real weird at tight end: Nick O’Leary ($3,200). Buccaneers are the worst-team besides the Cardinals versus tight ends, and he had four targets last week.
LOS ANGELES RAMS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS
A lot of people will be going back to Jared Goff ($6,000), because well the Arizona Cardinals are downright terrible versus quarterbacks. They have allowed the most fantasy points to the position over the past four weeks. However, it is still a road game, where Goff has been terrible and the Cardinals have the No.9 ranked pass rush by PFF. Goff also offers virtually no rushing upside. For that matter, I will fade Goff, but buy some of his pass-catchers. Cooper Kupp ($7,100) will likely be passed on in favor of Adams which is why he is the target lock in GPPs.
The Cardinals have allowed the second-most fantasy points to receivers lined up in the slot this season and Gerald Everett is going to miss this game. Kupp’s role in the offense is really that of a bonified move tight end and it checks out with his best games versus the Bengals, Seahawks, Buccaneers, and Browns. Two of those are top-three worst teams on the season versus tight ends and the other two are the worst in terms of yardage allowed over the past four weeks.
Robert Woods ($5,500) is in cash consideration at his price and 20 targets over his last two games played. Brandin Cooks ($5,200) is a strict GPP play. Tyler Higbee ($2,500) because of the matchup is the perfect punt play tight end coming off a six-target game. Todd Gurley ($6,500) is also a fine play with the Rams working him in more and the matchup with the Cardinals. They have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to backs over the past four weeks.
As for Arizona Kyler Murray ($6,400) is always in play with his rushing upside. I am sure after the bye week Kliff Kingsbury has some new wrinkles in the offense that is just cannot wait to unveil versus a slumping Rams defense. There’s a lot of unknowns surrounding different roles, but at Cardinals’ final record of 3-7-1, they should be in some kind of evaluation period. Definitely should see more Andy Isabella ($3,200). Any Cardinals running back play is really a GPP dart throw especially against the Rams. The coaches are saying they might use all three backs, but how much is Kingsbury actually going to use a second back, not to mention a third?
Chase Edmonds had 11 touches in Cincinnati as a second guy to Johnson. But in the other 10 games this season, the second Cardinals running back has averaged just 3.2 touches per game. Regardless of which running back, they have value because they are averaging five yards per attempt. So if you are in a pinch with your lineup I would consider late-swapping Kenyan Drake ($5,600). He is the starter and that has been confirmed on the team’s depth chart with Johnson the number 2 and Edmonds the number 3. Larry Fitzgerald ($5,100) always plays better at home, but likely draws the Jalen Ramsey treatment, so Christian Kirk ($5,700) becomes a nice target to potentially stack with Kyler Murray. Over the past four weeks, the Rams have allowed seventh-most fantasy points to the wide receiver position.
OAKLAND RAIDERS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Patrick Mahomes ($7,400) is the most expensive quarterback on the slate, but unless the weather in the Ravens game gets out of hand, I will be leaning towards Jackson in all-cash formats. However, you will want to get as many one-offs of this Chiefs offense as you can especially off the bye week. Andy Reid is 17-3 in games after the bye week and 10-1 at home. Derek Carr ($5,500) is 0-5 at Arrowhead. In those games, Carr has combined for 3 touchdowns, five interceptions, and under 250 passing yards in each game. The Raiders’ offense is very hard to believe even with their rush defense worst in the NFL. Also, the Raiders’ best tackle Trent Brown is questionable in this game. Chiefs DST ($2,700) at home could smash this week.
If the Raiders are trailing Josh Jacobs ($6,900) does not see enough work in the passing game to be relevant. The Chiefs have been great versus outside boundary receivers which make Tyrell Williams ($5,400) someone to also fade. The best play on the Raiders has to be Darren Waller ($5,500). Waller started this season with a bang with little involvement from Hunter Renfrow, but as Renfrow’s production increased Waller’s production decreased. With no Renfrow in Week 13, it makes more sense Waller’s production should head back up. However, if Waller does not come to fruition, it could be Zay Jones ($3,600) taking over that role in the slot and taking those Renfrow targets. The offensive coordinator said Jones’ role will increase.
On the Chiefs side, Damien Williams has been ruled out which makes both LeSean McCoy ($4,800) and Darrel Williams ($4,400) likely to lead the backfield. That being said McCoy should be the primary runner with Darrel being the primary pass-catcher. In your GPP builds, I would stack a Mahomes build one with McCoy and one with Williams. The Raiders have allowed the third-most receiving yards to backs over the past four weeks and the fourth-most rushing yards. The Raiders’ secondary is the perfect spot for all Kansas City receivers, with the Raiders allowing the most passing plays (55) over 20 or more yards this season and second-most passing plays over 40 yards (12).
Tyreek Hill ($8,900), Sammy Watkins ($5,400), and Mecole Hardman ($4,200) are all in play because of this. Hill has gone for over 100 yards and a touchdown at least once in his last two seasons when playing the Raiders. Everybody will stack Mahomes with Hill, so to gain some leverage in tournaments play Hill as a one-off. He missed the first game versus the Raiders. Hardman had his second-best fantasy game versus the Raiders in Week 2, and Watkins has seen 22 targets in his last two games versus the Raiders. Worth noting that Hill is coming off the hamstring injury, and Watkins was dealing with an illness late in the week. Hardman could have a big week if any of them become limited during the game.
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS @ DENVER BRONCOS
Drew Lock ($4,800) is making his first career start so if Thanksgiving has taught us anything (90% ownership on Bears Defense) this Chargers DST ($3,100) is going to be mega-chalk. However, as David Blough showed us on Turkey Day, just because it’s your first start does not mean you will play poorly. The Broncos are at home, and this has been a house of horrors for the turnover-happy Philip Rivers ($5,500). He has thrown six interceptions in his last three games there.
Melvin Gordon ($6,400) has averaged 21 touches with 4.6 yards per attempt over the past three weeks but has never scored versus the Broncos in his career. Austin Ekeler ($5,700) had 15 receptions the last time he played the Broncos. Philip Lindsay ($5,000) is very cheap and has owned the Chargers in his career. Two career games he has over 15 touches in each and scored three times with over an average of 100 yards from scrimmage. The Chargers have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to backs over the past four weeks.
The Broncos are going to continue to run their offense through Courtland Sutton ($5,800) who is still too cheap for an alpha wide receiver. Their OC said that “It’s our job also to find ways … we can continue to run the offense through him.” People might be scared of the matchup, but Sutton balled out in Week 5 going for 92 yards and one score on four receptions. Hunter Herny ($5,800) is averaging just as many points per game (15.8) than Travis Kelce but comes at a much cheaper price. Henry has gone over 70 receiving yards in two of his last four games versus Denver.
Noah Fant ($3,700) is still seeing a huge target share of the Broncos’ targets and Drew Lock tended to look towards the tight end in the end zone at the collegiate level. Since the trade of Emmanuel Sanders to the 49ers, Fant is averaging seven targets per week. And targets are probably more critical to tight ends than any other position. Case in point: the top four tight ends so far this year are all averaging more than seven targets.
