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Get ready for NFL Week 12 DFS? I cannot believe it has gone by this quickly. The regular season is almost over. But here we are back at it to win some money on DraftKings! We will go through each matchup game-by-game in the early slate, and I will give my best buys via DraftKings prices.
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Week 12 Early Games
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ ATLANTA FALCONS
It should be the eruption week across the board for the Falcons’ offense. Matt Ryan ($6,700) is a viable play in cash formats with the Buccaneers allowing the second-most fantasy points to quarterbacks over the past four weeks. Tampa Bay is one of two teams (Giants) that are allowing over 300 passing yards per game on the road this season. In Ryan’s last two games versus the Buccaneers in 2018, he threw for over 350 yards and multiple touchdowns in each contest. Julio Jones ($8,000) has played best in games decided by one score or fewer and the spread in this game is at -3.5.
Austin Hooper is not going to play again and Jones has a great history versus the Bucs. Over 130 yards in both games last year with one touchdown. Both games were decided by five points or less. Jones has not scored since Week 3. No team has allowed more touchdowns to receivers than Tampa Bay. In eight separate instances, a wide receiver has scored 25.0 or more fantasy points against Tampa Bay this year, which is twice as many as the next-closest defense.
That being said, there is value to be had with guys like Calvin Ridley ($6,500) and Russell Gage ($3,900). Gage is fully entrenched as the number three receiver since the Mohamed Sanu trade. For GPPs, consider Brian Hill ($4,900) who will be at extremely low ownership after last week and tight end Jaeden Graham ($3,300). The Cardinals get a lot of talk about being so bad versus tight ends, but the Buccaneers have almost been just as bad. Since the 2010 season, only the 2019 Cardinals have allowed more fantasy points per game to tight ends than the 2019 Buccaneers.
For Tampa Bay, all the usual guys are GPP plays. Jameis Winston ($6,200), Mike Evans ($7,300), and Chris Godwin ($7,200) are all great plays. I prefer Godwin slightly over Evans, with Godwin with a better track record versus Atlanta. Three touchdowns in his last two games versus the Falcons. Winston should also produce even against an improved Falcons’ defense over the past two weeks. In his last five games versus the Falcons Winston has thrown for at least three touchdowns in all five contests.
DENVER BRONCOS @ BUFFALO BILLS
Josh Allen ($6,400) is most likely going to be overlooked because of the matchup versus the Broncos. However, his rushing upside makes him much different than many other quarterbacks on the slate. Philip Lindsay ($5,200) at the running back position is in another great spot especially coming off a game where he saw an increased workload with a season-high in snaps played. The Bills have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to the running back position over the past four weeks.
Devin Singletary is a fade with the Broncos allowing just over 200 rushing yards over the last four weeks. John Brown ($6,700) is another fade with his game splits favoring him much more on the road than at home. Cole Beasley ($4,400) is actually the best receiver play with his splits increasing at home where he is averaging 12.5 fantasy points per game and where he has scored all his touchdowns. The pay at down receiver for the Broncos is Tim Patrick ($3,000). He saw eight targets (one) more than Courtland Sutton) and you cannot beat that price especially if Sutton gets the shadow treatment from Tre’ Davious White.
CAROLINA PANTHERS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Need cash running backs? Play the guys from this game and move onto the rest of your roster. Christian McCaffrey ($10,500) and Alvin Kamara ($8,200) should be both locked into your cash game lineups. Drew Brees ($6,600) always player better at home so he is always in play with Kamara and Michael Thomas ($9,300) whose price went down after he scored 28.4 points last week. Thomas is averaging 29.9 points per game at home this season. Since Week 8, D.J. Moore ($6,200) leads the NFL in targets (43), but just has not scored touchdowns. He had 81 receiving yards the last time he played in New Orleans and Marshon Lattimore is still questionable to play. When New Orleans is back at home, you always need to figure on the fast track that Tre’Quan Smith ($3,400) and Ted Ginn Jr. ($4,000) become plays in GPPs.
OAKLAND RAIDERS @ NEW YORK JETS
Both of these quarterbacks can definitely be played in this game. The Jets allow the fifth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks over the past four weeks, and the Raiders are allowing the most passing touchdowns (2.8) per game on the road. Derek Carr ($6,100) averages four more points (18.1) on the road than at home, and Sam Darnold ($5,800) has scored over 21 fantasy points the past two weeks with five passing touchdowns. Josh Jacobs ($7,400) ran pretty poorly last week, and I am not sure this is the spot for him to smash versus the Jets that are much more of a pass funnel. Jacobs has seen seven targets over the past two weeks so I think he is a fine GPP play.
Le’Veon Bell ($6,400) is very cheap for a running back with a three-down skill set that is facing a defense that has allowed the sixth-most rushing yards to backs over the past four weeks. Bell has been slightly better at home and is still averaging 20 touches per game. Robby Anderson ($4,800) is a solid GPP play considering the Raiders allow the second-most passing plays over 20 yards. Ryan Griffin ($4,200) is also in a great spot at tight end who faces the fifth-worst team versus the position and have allowed the second-most red-zone touches and fourth-most red-zone targets to tight ends. With the Chiefs coming up next week the Raiders with this east coast trip could see themselves in a trap game.
MIAMI DOLPHINS @ CLEVELAND BROWNS
Baker Mayfield ($5,900) is in an absolute smash spot versus the Dolphins. In four of his last five games, Mayfield has scored at least 17 fantasy points in every game versus opponents not named the New England Patriots. The Miami Dolphins who just allowed four total touchdowns versus Josh Allen. Mayfield has averaged 17 points per game at home this season and with the Browns now without Myles Garrett, there’s a strong chance the defense is going to allow more points. According to PFF, the Dolphins rank dead last in terms of pass rush which means Mayfield is going to have time to throw the ball. This bodes well for both of Mayfield’s primary receivers in Odell Beckham Jr. ($7,000) and Jarvis Landry ($6,300). Great stack for the slate.
Nick Chubb ($8,100) is also someone to consider in GPPs because he should see a ton of work versus a subpar run defense. No team has allowed more rushing attempts than the Dolphins over the past four weeks. However, this game should not just be a Cleveland onslaught with the Browns’ defense missing key players.
Ryan Fitzpatrick ($5,000) could be in line for a GPP play with surging wide receiver DeVante Parker ($5,200). Since Week 7 Parker has seen at least six targets in every single game and surpassed 50 yards receiving to go along with three touchdowns. He is WR15 overall during this timespan.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS
According to PFF, Mason Rudolph ranks dead last in PFF passing grade (51.3). He’s logged five big-time throws and 15 turnover-worthy plays so far this season, a dangerous ratio that Cincinnati can take advantage of in Week 12. That is why at the rock-bottom price of $2,100 the Bengals DST is in play. When the Steelers have played on the road this season with Rudolph they have allowed an average of 11.5 fantasy points to defenses. Over the past four weeks, the Steelers have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to defenses.
One of my favorite plays from this game is Steelers’ tight end Vance McDonald ($3,500). The Bengals are the worst team versus tight ends over the last four weeks, and McDonald has seen at least seven targets in three straight weeks. Last year in two games versus the Bengals McDonald averaged seven targets per game with yards of 68 and 39. Three tight ends have seen seven or more targets versus the Bengals and they have all scored double-digit fantasy points. Tyler Boyd ($5,000) is also sneaky with the squeaky wheel gets the grease narrative after one catch last week.
NEW YORK GIANTS @ CHICAGO BEARS
Everybody hates quarterback Mitchell Trubisky ($5,100), but in two of his last three home games, he has thrown for a total of five touchdowns. This week versus the Giants who are allowing over 300 passing yards per game on road, I think Mitch can get it done with the help of his receivers. New York allows an average yards per pass attempt of 9.8 on the road. The Giants over the past four weeks have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to wide receivers setting things up quite nicely for both Allen Robinson ($6,500) and Taylor Gabriel ($4,200). Saquon Barkley ($7,900) is also under 8K for the first time this season and I think he is a viable option in cash games this week. Chicago gives up the 11th most fantasy points to the running back position.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Russell Wilson ($6,800) is always in play, but be warned that the Eagles’ defense has been playing better. Carson Wentz ($5,600) might be the better GPP play because so many people are down on the Eagles’ offense. Meanwhile, the matchup says otherwise with Seattle allowing 258 passing yards per game on the road. Two of Carson’s best games this year came at home. Seattle also ranks last in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers over the past four weeks so Alshon Jeffery ($4,900) and Nelson Agholor ($4,100) could be potential value plays.
DETROIT LIONS @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS
Another matchup with two crappy defenses means that both quarterbacks are in play. Jeff Driskel ($5,500) has rushing upside and the Lions have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks over the past four weeks, which means there is a chance for a ceiling game for rookie Dwayne Haskins ($4,900). Derrius Guice ($4,700) could also be in play considering the Lions also have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to backs over the past four weeks. Especially if we here Adrian Peterson is limited by an injury.
