Michael Rasile 
NFL Week 11: Where’s the Money?
Last week we did a good job at pointing out that everything is not quite as it seems. The Ravens were getting all that money at -7 and couldn’t even win outright, taking the Seahawks – even getting 2 points – was a bad idea, and that Saints 49ers game was probably a little too close for comfort depending on how much money you may have had on the game. This week we’ll be going over the 3 teams with the most money on them and see how they might fair for NFL Week 11: Where’s the Money?
Dolphins (-3.5) at Broncos
This game feels a lot like the one we saw last week with the Dolphins. Favored by only a couple points over the Chargers, my assumption was that Vegas was trying to bait us into taking the Dolphins because they knew something we didn’t. Even after the Dolphins were receiving all the money, we had some reverse line movement that made it seem like more of a lock. The Dolphins end up winning comfortably, but it still is something to pay attention to.
Now, we see Tua in his first road game, in Mile High. The Broncos are bad, don’t get me wrong, but 3.5 still doesn’t seem like enough to me. Drew Lock is splitting first team reps with Mark Rypien’s something-or-other, and this defense isn’t much to write home about. The one thing the Broncos have going for them are some good young wide receivers, but with no QB and going up against the Dolphins two great DBs, it seems that’s a wash at best. Currently, over 90% of the money is coming in on the Dolphins at -3.5 and the line has stood there. Maybe that .5 could end up being very, very important to the Sports Books this week.
Chiefs (-8) at Raiders
Chiefs are coming off a bye. Chiefs have only one loss this year, and it’s to the Raiders. Patrick Mahomes has one pick this year, and it was against the Raiders. The Raiders put almost their entire starting defense on the reserve/COVID-19 list. Why is this line only 8 points? And more importantly, why did it start at -9.5 to the Chiefs and come down?
Oh and on top of that, over 90% of the money is coming in on the Chiefs. What are we missing? I honestly have no idea. I personally think the Chiefs roll in this one and do whatever they can to continue separating from the Raiders in the standings, putting up 100 is not in the question. Maybe there’s something I’m missing though? 🤷♂️
Rams at Bucs (-3.5)
Which TB12 do we get? The one that threw three picks and put up three points? Or the one that goes for 5 TDs and puts the other teams face into the ground? Well, it seems that the public believes its the latter. We’re currently seeing about 75% of the money come in on the home favorite, moving the line to -4, even after the Rams beat the Seahawks last week.
And, yes, while the Rams did beat the Seahawks if feels like it wasn’t that convincing of a win. A bad Seahawks defense only allowed the Rams to get 23 total points, and only 6 in the second half. This Rams offense should have been able to put up more, but Jared Goff hasn’t changed and here we are. This is with Russell Wilson turning the ball over 4 times, the Rams were still only able to win by 7. Maybe the public is thinking that the Giants and Saints games were more exceptions to the rule, instead of the rule itself. Maybe they’re thinking, if the Seahawks defense looked that good who knows what the Bucs defense will be able to do. But this one is something I’m excited to keep my eyes on and see how it plays out.
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@MichaelRasile1 | @WinDailySports
