Get ready for NFL Week 11 DFS? I cannot believe it has gone by this quickly. The regular season is already halfway over. But here we are back at it to win some money on DraftKings! We will go through each matchup game-by-game in the main slate, and I will give my best buys via DraftKings prices.
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Week 11 Early Games
HOUSTON TEXANS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS
FanDuel Sportsbook has this game as the highest (51.5) on the main slate. Lamar Jackson ($7,700) remains a great cash play versus the Texans who have allowed seventh-most passing touchdowns this season. Deshaun Watson ($6,800) draws the tougher matchup on paper, but he is just so good that he becomes a great play in GPPs. Mark Ingram ($6,600) is also interesting in GPPs. His production has been up and down all season. Anytime he has scored under ten DraftKings points he has followed up with more improved performance. Marquise Brown ($5,600) should definitely be owned versus the Texans that ranks third-worst versus wide receivers. Darren Fells ($3,800) is nothing more than a GPP tight end play averaging 9.4 fantasy points per game.
ATLANTA FALCONS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS
The time has come for Julio Jones ($7,500) eruption week. The reason comes at a time where the Falcons will be without both Austin Hooper and Devonta Freeman. For Jones, his last two multiple touchdown games came in games where Austin Hooper saw less than 40 receiving yards. Looking at the past three seasons, in games where Hooper has struggled or not been involved Jones has consistently surpassed 100 yards receiving and has seen his touchdown equity raise. The matchup is also great with the Panthers allowing the fifth-most receptions, and fifth-most yards to receivers over the past two weeks, but zero touchdowns. Positive regression is coming for touchdowns allowed to receivers. Calvin Ridley ($5,500) and Brian Hill ($4,800) are also both in play. Hill should be locked into cash games with a bell-cow role versus the Panthers that have allowed the most fantasy points to running backs over the past four weeks.
Christian McCaffrey ($10,500) should be locked into cash lineups at home versus the Falcons. All of the Panthers’ offense players are in play whether it be stacks in GPPs or one-offs in cash games. Kyle Allen ($5,300), DJ Moore ($5,900), and Curtis Samuel ($5,300). Falcons still rank fourth-worst versus the quarterback and seventh-worst versus the receiver position. Even Greg Olsen ($3,900) finds himself in a great spot coming off a ten targets game with a price increase of just $300. Olsen has at least nine targets in his last three games versus the Falcons.
DALLAS COWBOYS @ DETROIT LIONS
We still do not know if Matthew Stafford will be playing in this game, so it looks like it is going to be a Cowboys onslaught. The Lions allow the second-most fantasy points to running backs and Ezekiel Elliott ($9,000) is coming off a poor 8.3 fantasy performance versus the Vikings. However, he still is seeing 20 plus touches in every single game so he should be cash viable in a game that projects well for the Cowboys ground game. Elliott has been scoring more fantasy points (21.7) on the road than at home (17.5). Dak Prescott ($6,700) could also be cash viable as the Lions rank fifth-worst versus the quarterback over the past four weeks. Playing Dak and Elliott together this season has averaged 43.62 fantasy points so using both in cash provides a very safe floor.
The best play from the Lions is probably J.D. McKissic ($4,600) with Detriot likely playing catchup. The Cowboys have also allowed the fourth-most receptions to running backs, fifth-most targets, and fifth-most yards. It’s hard to trust the other skill players without Stafford.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Eric Ebron ($3,600) had 12 targets last week, and Jack Doyle ($4,000) is questionable on the injury report. Ebron will be getting Jacoby Brissett back and has a history of success versus the Jaguars. 19 targets, 13 receptions, 150 yards, and two touchdowns in his last two games versus the Jaguars. The Jags have allowed the fifth-most receiving touchdowns to the tight end and 11 red-zone targets. Dede Westbrook ($4,500) is coming back from an injury and it remains to be seen if he will have chemistry with the return of Nick Foles ($5,600). A cheap receiver to consider in GPPs.
BUFFALO BILLS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS
Devin Singletary ($6,000) disappointed in a big way in Week 10, but gets a better matchup versus the Dolphins. Despite their two-game win streak, they are still giving up fantasy points to the running back position. He saw only 11 touches last week, but that was still more than Frank Gore’s six. Singletary should get the volume and volume backs have produced versus the Dolphins. John Brown ($6,400) still has yet to have an explosion game but is averaging 16.9 points on the road. Brown scored 19.3 points versus the Dolphins in Week 7. The Bills have been elite versus tight ends, so do not fall under the trap with Mike Gesicki ($3,500)
DENVER BRONCOS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS
This should be a smash spot for the Vikings DST ($3,400) and Dalvin Cook ($8,900) at home. Vikings DST scores twice as many points at home than on the road. Brandon Allen is making his first start on the road in the NFL. It is worth mentioning that the Broncos defense has been better against running backs. They have allowed the fourth-fewest rushing yards on the road this season to running backs. Stefon Diggs ($6,900) even without Adam Thielen is a fade with his matchup versus Chris Harris. I do like Kyle Rudolph ($3,600) who over the past three weeks as 13 targets and three touchdowns scored.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
Jared Cook ($4,400) is operating as the number two receiver on the Saints and is in a great spot versus the Buccaneers. The Bucs have allowed the third-most fantasy points to tight ends over the past four weeks. Since returning from injury Cook has also scored double-digit fantasy points for three straight weeks. Though he is in a smash spot, I do think that Michael ($9,900) Thomas is a fade this week. I just do not think he will be able to produce enough to fit his extremely high price tag. You always want to fade the high-priced chalky wide receivers. I would prefer using Alvin Kamara ($7,400) coming off a tough week in a bad matchup on paper versus the number one ranked run defense in Tampa Bay.
For the Buccaneers as always you need to have shares of both Chris Godwin ($7,300) and Mike Evans ($7,400), especially with no Marshon Lattimore. Jameis Winston ($6,500) is again one of the jam-him-in GPP quarterback plays.
NEW YORK JETS @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS
This game is going to be slow with the Redskins wanting to run the ball in a no-matter-what mentality. That despite the fact that the Jets’ defense has been great versus running backs allowing the fewest fantasy points to the position over the past two weeks. The only option I love from the Redskins is Terry McLaurin ($5,600) who just has such a great matchup and just needs one play to have a fantasy impact. With Dwayne Haskins under center in Week 9 McLaurin still saw six targets. The Jets have allowed the second-most fantasy points to the wide receiver position.
For the Jets, there is a strong chance that Jamison Crowder ($5,700) sees another large target share with both Robby Anderson and Demaryius Thomas dealing with injuries. Also #RevengeGame for Crowder. Redskins DST ($2,800) is also in play with them allowing the third-fewest fantasy points to the quarterback position over the past four weeks. They have double-digit sacks in their last five games and the Jets have been brutal on offense on the road this year.
ARIZONA CARDINALS @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Wide receiver Deebo Samuel ($4,000) is a lock-in cash game, with Emmanuel Sanders questionable for the game. Even if Sanders does play I think that Samuel will still be a featured player for San Francisco because of all the ways they try to get him the ball. You cannot also overlook tight end Ross Dwelley at $3,400 who is playing the Cardinals. Dwelley has 11 targets over his last two games filling in for the injured George Kittle.
If Matt Breida misses the game, I think Tevin Coleman ($6,100) is too cheap to not play in GPPs with his potential touchdown equity projection.
CINCINNATI BENGALS @ OAKLAND RAIDERS
Neither of these teams is explosive on offense, so I think you want to look at this game with the under 48.5 point total in mind. Josh Jacobs ($6,900) is going to be extremely popular, but his lack of work in the passing game scares me away from using him in cash games. The Raiders’ defense is absolutely terrible so even versus a backup quarterback, Oakland could easily fall behind and Jacobs could be game scripted out. I also think that the Raiders DST ($3,100) is also a trap. They are not a team that rushes the passer very well, and according to PFF they actually rank worse than the Bengals in terms of pass-rush grade. The Bengals also showed a great commitment to running the ball last week with just 30 passing attempts which were a season-low. Not so sure we see too many opportunities for the Raiders DST to smash.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Now the game flow for this game should go as follows with the weaknesses and strengths of these teams pretty well defined. The Eagles are going to try and run the ball with Jordan Howard ($4,700) and Miles Sanders ($4,100). The Patriots are allowing the third-most rushing yards over the past three weeks (150/game). The Eagles cannot stop the pass so you will want Tom Brady ($6,400) and stack him with Julian Edelman ($7,600), Mohamed Sanu ($5,100), Philip Dorsett ($4,200), and James White ($5,400).