adam.sardinha1@gmail.com 
Get ready for NFL Week 10 DFS? I cannot believe it has gone by this quickly. The regular season is already halfway over. But here we are back at it to win some money on DraftKings! We will go through each matchup game-by-game in the main slate, and I will give my best buys via DraftKings prices.
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Week 10 Early Games
DETROIT LIONS @ CHICAGO BEARS
David Montgomery ($5,300) is one of the few lower-priced running backs on the main slate that you can have confidence in playing. Montgomery has put up 24.7 and 22.6 points the last two weeks, with him also seeing a 70% offensive snap share. Against a Detroit team allowing the most PPR points per game to running backs this year, Montgomery looks to be in a great spot. He is also involved in the passing game with nine targets over the past two weeks. He has more catches, targets, and routes run that Tarik Cohen ($4,200) over that time span. Montgomery also leads the Bears with 19 red zone touches, and 13 touches inside the five-yard line this season. Those 13 touches inside the five rank second-highest in the NFL.
There is also a strong chance that this is a bounce-back spot for Mitchell Trubisky ($5,100) in Week 10. The Lions, over the past four weeks, have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to the quarterback position. Trubisky has also had a ton of success versus the Lions in the past, throwing for over 300 passing yards in his last two games against them. He has only thrown for 300 or more yards five times in his career. The reason the Lions have been so bad on defense is their lack of pass rush. They are generating pressure on just 19% of quarterback dropbacks this season. According to PFF Trubisky’s passer rating is 42.1 under pressure this season. It’s 95.9 in a clean pocket.
You will then want to stack Trubisky with Allen Robinson ($6,300), who is coming off a down game. Last year versus the Lions at home Robinson had six receptions for 133 yards and two touchdowns. Anthony Miller ($3,500) could be an interesting punt play. His best game in 2018 was versus the Lions when he went for 122 yards.
For the Lions, I do think that Ty Johnson ($4,100) is interesting. He still leads the team in rushing percentage and snaps played. The Bears have been also outright terrible versus the run. Over the past four weeks the Bears have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to running backs. I do not love the Detroit receivers in this spot with the Bears allowing the second-fewest fantasy points per game to receivers over the past four weeks. However, T.J. Hockenson ($3,900) has a great matchup with the Bears allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to tight ends the last four weeks.
BALTIMORE RAVENS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS
There is a reason why the Baltimore DST ($4,000) is so expensive this week. They face the Bengals with a rookie quarterback and have been much improved. The unit has scored 31 fantasy points total in two tough matchups versus Seattle and New England. They could break the slate. Mark Ingram ($7,100) needs to be considered in GPPs with the Bengals allowing the second-most fantasy points to the running back position. In this same spot back in Week 6, Ingram had just 13 carries for 52 yards with one rushing touchdown. There’s always a chance that Gus Edwards could vulture a touchdown. Only two running backs this season have rushed for 100 yards or more versus the Bengals. Marquise Brown ($5,100) could be overlooked, but he always has the chance to blow up. The Bengals have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to receivers over the past four weeks.
For the Bengals, A.J. Green will not make his return to the lineup forcing the Bengals to the trifecta of Tyler Boyd ($4,700), Auden Tate ($4,000), and Alex Erickson ($3,700). Rookie quarterback Ryan Finley ($4,800) showed a tendency during the preseason to check the ball down with 6.5 yards per attempt on 69 dropbacks. So for that reason, I still think that Boyd is in play and so is Tate. If you reference Finley’s college days he did well enough for two of his leading receivers, Jakobi Meyers and Kelvin Harmon, to make it on NFL rosters. Meyers was a slot guy like Boyd, and Harmon was a contested-catch guy like Tate. In Tate’s first game versus Baltimore, he had 91 receiving yards.
BUFFALO BILLS @ CLEVELAND BROWNS
The Browns are favorites at home despite being 2-6 versus a 6-2 Bills squad. The best Bills’ play is running back Devin Singletary ($5,000) for Week 10. Singletary has now seen at least twice as many snaps played as Frank Gore, to go along with ten targets and the third most routes run on the team over the past two weeks. The only concern of rostering Singletary is goal line work. Singletary has six touches versus Gore’s four touches in the red zone. He also has 23 carries over the past two weeks versus Gore’s 20 carries. Singletary is averaging five yards per carry versus Gore’s 2.4 yards per carry.
The Browns should be able to run the football in this game with Nick Chubb ($7,000). The Bills have been gashed on the ground; they have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to backs over the past four weeks. Also, Odell Beckham Jr. ($6,100) is at his lowest price since his rookie year. Baker Mayfield has already come out and said they are going to force-feed the ball to Beckham, so at the price I am buying that narrative for Week 10. He should be an excellent option in GPPs. With the bad matchup, Beckham will be super low owned. The Bills’ defense also funnels a lot of receptions and targets to the receiver position.
ATLANTA FALCONS @ NEW ORLEAN SAINTS
Both games last season went over 48 points with these two teams. The first matchup reached 80 points scored. This is a game that you will want to attack in GPPs and have parts of in your cash lineups. Drew Brees ($6,700) is a great play across all formats. His last two games versus Atlanta he has thrown for seven touchdowns and 283.5 passing yards. Alvin Kamara ($8,200) might come in with slightly lower ownership off the injury so he is definitely a GPP option. Ted Ginn Jr. ($3,700) is back at home, and versus the Falcons he could always blow up. The last time he played them at home he went for 76 yards and one touchdown. Tre’Quan Smith ($3,200) is back and healthy. Saints DST ($3,700) is also in play as a pay up defense that should be able to easily overwhelm the Atlanta offensive line.
For Atlanta Matt Ryan ($6,100) is definitely a GPP play in Week 10. His top two receivers also need to be in there with Julio Jones ($7,500) and Calvin Ridley ($5,400). Ridley might be the best play of the two with the price based on his track record. In two games last year versus New Orleans Ridley averaged 10.5 targets, 7.5 receptions, and 119.5 yards with two touchdowns. Jones has just three career touchdowns versus the Saints in his career in 15 total games.
NEW YORK GIANTS @ NEW YORK JETS
Now it’s not the sexiest matchup on the slate, but there is potential for a sneaky shootout with two bad defenses facing off. Saquon Barkley ($8,800) is lock-in cash with the number of touches he sees against an extremely banged up Jets defense. There will be no Evan Engram either which could create even more targets in the passing game for Barkley. Rhett Ellison ($2,500) enters the game as simply a punt play at tight end as he saw seven targets in the other game Engram missed. Sam Darnold ($5,800) and Daniel Jones ($5,700) are in play. I do slightly edge to Jones with his rushing upside and he is $100 cheaper.
For the other skill positions, Robby Anderson ($4,700) could be in a bounce-back spot. The Giants are one of three teams to lead the league in most plays allowed over 20 yards. The Giants have allowed the most yards to receivers this season. Golden Tate ($5,900) should also see a ton of targets with Shepard out with his concussion. The Jets rank third-worst in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers over the past four weeks.
ARIZONA CARDINALS @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
The FanDuel Sportsbook has this game as the highest total on the slate at 52 points. Tampa Bay ranks third in plays per game and sixth in passing attempts per game. So that means you need to have exposure to both Mike Evans ($7,600) and Chris Godwin ($7,400) along with their quarterback Jameis Winston ($6,800) in GPPs. I am also locking in O.J. Howard ($3,300) in my cash game lineups. The matchup is too good to pass up and we know the explosive athlete Howard can bring to the table. The Cardinals are allowing over 20 fantasy points per game to tight ends. The most interesting play at running back is Ronald Jones ($4,300) who has been named the starter. He is the lowest-priced running back you can feel okay about, but his lack of work in the passing game needs to be considered.
For the Arizona Cardinals, I absolutely love Kyler Murray ($6,500) as my go-to in cash games. He has running upside and is playing a defense that allows the third-most fantasy points to the quarterback position. He also gets David Johnson ($5,700) who is rumored from a beat reporter from Arizona to be featured in the slot and passing game more. Then you throw in Christian Kirk ($5,200) who is Murray’s number one target and you have a nice stack. The Buccaneers rank worst in the NFL versus wide receivers. Players might be more inclined to see more of Andy Isabella ($3,300), but reports are that it does not mean he is going to see more snaps. Large field GPPs? Let’s roll with Damiere Byrd ($3,400).
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ TENNESSEE TITANS
Patrick Mahomes ($7,000) looks like he is going to play in Week 10 and if his ownership is lower because he is coming off an injury I am buying. He’s the best quarterback in the league and the Titans did just lose cornerback Malcolm Butler. Over the past two weeks, the Titans have allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to wide receivers. Tyreek Hill ($7,700) and Travis Kelce ($6,400) are nice options to pay up for in GPPs. Sammy Watkins ($5,100), who everybody wants to fade, has seen 18 targets over the past two weeks.
For the Titans, Derrick Henry ($6,400) is strictly a play in GPPs. That is because he has zero involvement in the passing game and if the Chiefs get out to a quick lead you are sunk. Ryan Tannehill ($5,100) is in a nice spot at home. Over the past three weeks, Tannehill is averaging 20.5 fantasy points per game. Things look to continue rolling versus the Chiefs that on the road this season has allowed an NFL-high 8.8 yards per pass attempt. Kansas City overall gives up the tenth-most fantasy points to the quarterback position. A.J. Brown ($4,300) looks to be the option to stack with Tannehill. At least nine fantasy points in three straight weeks. He ranks 13th in the NFL in yards/route run over the past three weeks.
Late Games
MIAMI DOLPHINS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
The Colts are heavy home favorites so they should be able to run the ball effectively with Marlon Mack ($7,000). The Dolphins allow 28.7 rushing attempts per game on the road and you better believe the Colts’ offensive line is going to motivated after getting their quarterback hurt last week.
I will not be playing DeVante Parker ($4,800) even though he seems like he is in a good spot. No Preston Williams will create more coverage to Parker and the Colts will be getting back cornerback Pierre Desir most likely. We have too large of a sample size of Parker failing to meet expectations especially when he is the guy. Rather pay all the way down at the tight end position for Mike Gesicki ($3,100) in Week 10.
CAROLINA PANTHERS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS
Play Christian McCaffrey ($10,500). He is still is not priced high enough and he is playing the Packers who have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to running backs this season. Both D,J. Moore ($5,200) and Curtis Samuel ($4,600) come in at great values. Both are averaging at least 12 fantasy points per game. Samuel ranks second and Moore ranks seventh in the NFL in air yards entering Week 10. Greg Olsen ($3,600) might be the safest option at tight end with the Packers allowing the most fantasy points per game to tight ends over the past four weeks.
Davante Adams ($6,900) is a screaming regression candidate for touchdown regression. He has 26 targets in his last two games played and has zero touchdowns to show for it. Also, a chance that cornerback James Bradberry does not play in this game. Aaron Jones ($7,400) saw his production dip with the return of Adams so he is really just a pivot play as a late swap off CMC. The Panthers have allowed the most touchdowns to backs this season (14).
LOS ANGELES RAMS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS
The best DST play this week I believe is the Steelers DST ($2,600). Jared Goff is notoriously known for flopping in road games and this defense is for real. Since Week 3 they have scored double-digit fantasy points every single week. At their price, they are too cheap. If you have the extra budget the Rams DST ($3,00) is also a nice option. Mason Rudolph does not look like a starting NFL quarterback right now.
For receivers, Brandin Cooks is out with a concussion that should open targets for both Gerald Everett ($4,500) and Josh Reynolds ($3,800). It’s worth noting that James Washington ($3,600) is coming off his best game of the season and head coach Mike Tomlin has complained of the lack of deep shots that Rudolph has been taking. He is a play in large GPP contests.
