Adam Strangis NFL Thanksgiving Day Prop Bets
We’ve got all day football today and we’re coming off an excellent Week 11 of bets! Between the four bets on the main slate and the two prime time games, we went 7-3 on the 10 bets. That’s brought us to 25-19 on the season and that’s with some terrible luck this week. Yes, I’m looking DIRECTLY at you, Leonard Fournette. You probably won’t catch that I’m staring daggers at you since you can’t catch. Anyways, I digress. We have some bonus plays this week with a three two game slate ahead of us so let’s get right into the good stuff with NFL Thanksgiving Day Prop Bets!
Appetizer
Houston -3
I’m not typically one to go after point spreads but this one feels like a good time to go after one. The Lions are banged up and will be without receiver Kenny Golladay once again. I’ll bet on Deshaun Watson in this spot almost every time now that he’s free of Bill O’Brien. Detroit has a better record but my belief is Houston is the better team right now, though both teams are bad. I’m not betting a large amount, but it’s a nice way to get the day rolling.
Main Course
These are the two bets that I’ll be using for my parlay as my normal prop plays. Since we’re shooting for the parlay, we’ll have one from each game.
Brandin Cooks O 68.5 Receiving Yards
Cooks has had six games without BOB and has exceeded this mark in three of those games. He’s been averaging 82.6 yards in those six games and Detroit ranks 23rd in DVOA against the run. The individual corners aren’t something that worries me and Cooks ran a faster 40-yard dash than any of the three main corners. Of course, speed isn’t everything but when you have a 25.4% target share in those six weeks, you should be in good shape.
Terry McLaurin O 73.5 Receiving Yards
I’m continuing to bet on the studs and McLaurin is in fact a stud. He’s 11th in receptions on the season and third in yards despite being on his third quarterback of the year. It’s one heck of a skill to basically be “quarterback-proof” and McLaurin has hit this mark in eight of 10 games. Only twice all year has he been under this prop and one of those games he faced Jalen Ramsey. Dallas has a very poor secondary and have allowed the ninth-most yards to receivers. McLaurin has 24 targets with Alex Smith as his quarterback and almost 100 yards per game. This number is too low. I’m not really concerned with the “questionable” tag as he was a full participant in practice Wednesday.
Dessert
Terry McLaurin To Score at +135
This is taking the place of my Pizza Money Bet of the Week. It would be great to see McLaurin score and the Cowboys have allowed the most touchdowns to receivers on the year at 19. McLaurin only has two red zone targets with Smith but that doesn’t mean he can’t take one in from deep. This is just a fun little side bet for the day.
Since we’re down to just two games, I’m going to bet a VERY SMALL amount on a fun little parlay with the McLaurin touchdown bet with Watson +2.5 touchdowns. He’s only done this twice under the new coach but this is also among the better matchups he’s had thus far.
Please do not get carried away with either touchdown bet, and certainly not with a parlay. These would be under the Pizza Money Category from the normal props article, so this is just a little something extra to root for.
Record – 25-19
Pizza Money Bets – 0-2
Let’s get after it this week my friends and thanks for reading NFL Thanksgiving Day Prop Bets!
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