Ivan Herrera 
Welcome to the final slate of the 2023–24 NFL season. After 21 grueling weeks, the NFL season comes down to two teams. On the AFC side, you have the defending Super Bowl Champions, the Kansas City Chiefs, and on the NFC side, you have the San Francisco 49ers, who are looking to avenge their 2020 loss to the Chiefs.
The purpose of this article is to break down the best plays on both the DFS and betting sides. The article will include my favorite plays and honorable mentions for every DFS position. You can also find my favorite bets in Drago’s Best Bets section at the end of the article.
The QBs:
Patrick Mahomes ($10.6K DK, $15K FD)
Mahomes needs no introduction; the KC QB is looking to secure his third ring in just seven years. This was an off year for Mahomes; he had a career high 67.2% completion percentage but nearly had career lows in passing yards and touchdowns. Mahomes also had a career high of 14 thrown interceptions this season. But he has managed to have three solid outings in the playoffs to get Kansas City into the Super Bowl. He faces a 49er pass defense that, outside of the first half against the Lions, has looked good during the postseason. Mahomes’s legs are going to have to play a big role during the Super Bowl as the 49ers pass rush can get after QBs.
For me, Mahomes is playable in the CPT/MVP spots or as a Flex play. I’ll have Mahomes in about 35–45% of my lineups, with 10–15% of those lineups having him at the CPT/MVP spots.
Brock Purdy ($10K DK, $14.5K FD)
Whether you think of Purdy as nothing more than a game manager or as a legit MVP candidate, you can’t deny he has played a role in the 49ers making it to Las Vegas. During the regular season, Purdy was one of the better QBs in the NFL, finishing in the top five in passing yards (5th), completion percentage (4th), touchdowns (3rd), and QBR (T1st). But during his two playoff games this season, he has not been able to duplicate his in-season success, as he is averaging fewer yards and touchdowns and has a lower completion percentage per game. His matchup for the SB doesn’t get any easier, as he has to deal with a Kansas City Chiefs defense that has stopped Tua Tagovailoa, Josh Allen, and Lamar Lamar in their three playoff games. The KC pass defense has allowed an average of 219 passing yards per game during the playoffs and only three touchdown passes while grabbing two interceptions.
For the 49ers to have a chance, Purdy will need to play like the MVP finalist he was. With the weapons at his disposal, I do believe he is going to use every weapon available to try and help SF secure their sixth ring in team history. I will be playing Purdy at either the CPT/MVP spots or the Flex spot on every site. My ownership of Purdy on DraftKings and FanDuel will be similar to Mahomes, so I’ll be looking at the 35–45% range, with about 15-20% of those being at the CPT/MVP spots.
The RBs:
Christian McCaffrey ($12K DK, $17.5K FD)
McCaffrey is the highest-priced guy on both DraftKings and FanDuel, and that is for a good reason. The 2023 Offensive Player of the Year is one of the main reasons why SF gets to travel to Vegas to take on KC. He has averaged 130 total yards and two touchdowns during the playoffs. His ability to not only run but also catch passes out of the backfield will play a huge role, as Purdy may face pressure for large parts of this game. McCaffrey will be the most owned guy in my lineups, as I am going to use him in about 65-70% of my lineups, spread out between both the CPT/MVP and Flex spots. I’d rather have the best offensive player on the field than lose because I didn’t use him.
Isaiah Pacheco ($8K DK, $12.5K FD)
The second-year RB has been a great compliment to KC’s passing game. Pacheco is one of the hardest running backs I have seen in a while, and his rushing yards reflect that. Pacheco has 254 rushing yards and three touchdowns in his three playoff games this season. He gets an interesting matchup in the Super Bowl as the 49ers defense hasn’t been as great as they were during the regular season. They have allowed Aaron Jones and David Montgomery to have good games against them. With the way Pacheco has been running, I can see the SF defense once again struggling to stop the run game. My ownership of Pacheco will be in the 45–55% range.
The Backup Backs:
Both the 49ers and Chiefs have backup RBs that can see the field, but outside of MME, I am not using many of them. On the SF side, Elijah Mitchell has 79 carries for 288 yards and three touchdowns this season. Outside of McCaffrey suffering an injury, Mitchell will not see the field outside of a carry or two when CMC needs a breather. On the KC side, Pacheco’s backup is former first-round pick Clyde Edwards-Helaire. CEH has not had much of a workload this season, only having double-digit touches three times all year. The way Pacheco has run all season makes it difficult to see him leaving the field. I’ll have both of these guys in under 5% of my lineups, with maybe a lineup or two with them at CPT/MVP.
Technically not a RB, but one lower-priced player listed at RB that I am taking a shot at is Kyle Juszczyk. He is not a player who is going to light up the scoresheet, but he has shown to be a security blanket for Purdy during the QBs short career so far. We saw it against the Lions during the conference title game. When Purdy had to run around behind the line of scrimmage, he was able to connect with the fullback on a nice play. Juszczyk will be featured in 7–10% of my lineups.
The WRs:
Brandon Aiyuk ($8.8K DK, $10.5K FD)
Despite having 14 targets, Aiyuk has struggled a bit during the postseason, only having six catches in the 49ers two playoff games. But I don’t see that struggle continuing during the Super Bowl. While San Francisco has great players like McCaffrey, whom I’ve mentioned prior, and Samuel, whom I’ll mention in a moment, Aiyuk is their best pass catcher. I think the attention will be more on McCaffrey and Samuel, so Aiyuk should find some space to have a successful Super Bowl. I’ll have him in about 35–40% of my lineups, with a small percentage of those being in the CPT/MVP spots.
Deebo Samuel ($9.2K DK, $11.5K FD)
The second-best playmaker on the SF roster behind McCaffrey. With Samuel being an explosive player, he will be lined up in the backfield at points during the game. I expect Samuel to finish only behind McCaffrey in touches for the 49ers. Snead should be splitting his snaps between Aiyuk and Samuel, which means one of them should always have a better matchup when Snead is on the other one. I will have more Samuel lineups than Aiyuk, so he’ll be around 40–45% owned by me.
Jauan Jennings ($4K DK, $7K FD)
Jennings isn’t going to light up the scoresheet by any means. But he has been targeted a good amount on third downs during the season. He is not someone I am prioritizing, but I will have him in about 5–7% of my lineups. With all my ownership being in the Flex spot.
Rashee Rice ($7.6K DK, $11K FD)
If you read any of my articles last season during the CFB season, you will know Rice is one of my favorite WRs. His breakout rookie performance is not shocking to me, and I expect him to continue turning heads during the Super Bowl. With every KC WR struggling over the course of the season, Rice has taken control of the WR1 spot. He has over 1100 yards this season, including in the playoffs. Being KC’s second-best pass catcher behind TE Kelce makes Rice a solid option at both CPT/MVP and the Flex spots. He will be one of my highest-owned guys, with 50–55% ownership in my lineups.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($3K DK, $7.5K FD)
MVS is one of my favorite value plays for the Super Bowl. He has not had much success this season, only having 26 receptions all year, including the playoffs. But during the AFC Championship game, Mahomes targeted him in what ended up being the game-clinching 32-yard reception. If Mahomes and Reid are going to trust him during clutch time, who am I to doubt him? MVS will be featured in 15-20% of my lineups for the Super Bowl, with a handful of times appearing in the CPT/MVP spot.
There are a handful of other WRs who will be active for the Super Bowl, like Conley and McCloud for SF and Watson, Moore, Hardman, and James for KC. I have little interest in the majority of them, as I think the four WRs listed above are the ones I would focus on more. But that is not to say I will not include each of them in a lineup; none will be used in more than 5% of my lineups.
The TEs
Travis Kelce ($10.2K DK, $13K FD)
Starting off the TE section with the best TE over the past couple of years. Kelce has played a huge role in Kansas City’s success since superstar WR Tyreek Hill left for Miami. Kelce leads all KC pass catchers with 116 receptions and 1246 yards. Kelce is going to have to play a huge role if KC wants to win back-to-back Super Bowls and gets a great matchup to succeed in. The SF defense has struggled to contain TEs the back half of the year, giving up big games, including to rookie Sam LaPorta two weeks ago. Based on the matchup, I am going to have a lot of Kelce in about 50–55% of lineups.
George Kittle ($6.4K DK, $10K FD)
Kittle sometimes gets forgotten about, with SF having a lot of great weapons. But he is still one of the best TEs in the NFL. In the 49ers two playoff games, he has six receptions for 108 yards and a touchdown. The KC defense has been great all playoffs, but with the secondary having to deal with Aiyuk and Samuel, Kittle can be in for a great day as they will not be focused on him. I will have Kittle in 30–35% of my lineups, with about 7–10% being in the CPT/MVP spot, as he will not be highly owned there currently, only projected at about 5%.
The D/ST and Kickers
Starting off with the D/ST, both sides are in play for the Super Bowl. Outside of small lapses during the playoffs, both defenses in this game have been good. The one I will have more of, despite thinking they will lose in the end, is the KC D/ST. Sacks are going to be big in this game, and with the 49er offensive line struggling and allowing Purdy to face a lot of pressure, I can see KC getting to Purdy a lot during the game. For the Super Bowl, the KC D/ST will be in 15-20% of my lineups. On the other side, I like the SF D/ST as well. Their front seven is one of the best in the league, and they can stop just about anyone when they are clicking. I will have fewer of them than KC, but they will still be in 10-15% of lineups.
The two kickers for the Super Bowl are two of the better-value plays on the slate. Both kickers will be featured in about 15-20% of my lineups. I think the game is going to go over, so I’m expecting both Butker and Moody to have FG attempts and PATs.
Favorite Plays
CPTs/MVPs:
- Christian McCaffrey
- Rashee Rice
- Deebo Samuel
- Isaiah Pacheco
- George Kittle
Flex Plays:
- Patrick Mahomes
- Brock Purdy
- Travis Kelce
- Chiefs D/ST
- Brandon Aiyuk
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling
- Both Kickers
- 49ers D/ST
- Kyle Juszczyk
Drago’s Best Bets:
- San Francisco ML
- Over 47.5
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