Dave Gloeckner 
The day is finally here as 14 teams enter the NFL Playoffs with all the same goal, lifting the Vince Lombardi trophy come the night of February 9th. And what better way to celebrate the playoffs as a fan then have a little extra skin in the game. Which is exactly why we’re here. After a “mid” regular season where I finished 48-47-1, we’re looking to the end the year with a bang (similar to how we’ve nailed the College Football Bowl Season). So join us on this upcoming journey and tail, fade or pass. But either way get ready for the ride because these next 5 weeks will bring us some of the best football we’ve seen all year.
I’m breaking down the games as they’re played this weekend, in chronological order. Along with each game bet, I’ll also provide a few props that I’ll be looking at as well.
NFL BETS WILD CARD WEEKEND (2024 SEASON RECORD: 48-47-1, game bets only)
LA CHARGERS -2.5 at HOUSTON TEXANS (4:30 PM EST, SATURDAY)
If you’ve read my articles this year, then you understand that I like to fade heavy public interest in games. Typically, that is a winning strategy but this year it didn’t hit as often as we’d expect. So I adjusted late and bought into some of the games where there was heavy square money. The point of all that is what we’re seeing today in the Chargers and Texans game. Los Angeles is being picked to win by every NFL analyst whether on TV or the internet. And the window in Vegas is backing that as 72% of the bets and 71% of the money is on Jim Harbaugh’s team. And honestly, this is usually a zig when they zag spot for me, but today it’s not.
I just simply can’t ignore the Texans inefficiencies for most, if not all, of the season. Houston is the worst offensive team in the playoffs, and it’s not close. They rank 25th overall in offensive DVOA which puts them in the likes of New Orleans, Dallas, New York Giants and the Chicago Bears. Most of those teams will be picking in the top 10 of the draft and weren’t close to playoff football. From a pure statistics perspective, it wasn’t great either as the Texans racked up just 319.7 total yards per game which is good for 13th out of the 14 playoff teams (Pittsburgh only team worse at 319.4). Same goes with points scored as they averaged 21.9 points per game, also ranking 13th of the 14 playoff teams (LA Rams came in at 21.6 ppg).
A lot of the offensive issues were due to the injuries and an inconsistent QB and offensive line. Upfront, Houston ranked 19th in pass blocking and 27th in run blocking. Because of that, the Texans allowed 54 sacks which was the third most in the NFL. At the helm, QB CJ Stroud took a step backwards in his sophomore season as he threw just 20 TD’s with 12 INT’s. The latter stat was tied for the 4th most in the NFL. The more concerning part is that Stroud was ranked 25th in QBR, with three rookie QB’s ranked higher as well as his fellow sophomore Bryce Young. A lot of that was due to teams bringing pressure against Stroud. The Texans were blitzed the 3rd most in the league but gave up the highest pressure rate at 27.2%.
While this has been all about the Texans, the point here is the Chargers have a much better offense than Houston. LA ended up ranking 13th in offensive DVOA and 11th in points per game. Their QB, Justin Herbert, threw just three interceptions all season as the Chargers turned the ball over just 9 times this season, 2nd fewest in the league. While Houston’s defense will keep them in the game, I trust Herbert and his corps of receivers much more. I think this is the day we see the Chargers actually win a close playoff game and set their sights to next week and a possible matchup with KC.
NOTE: I’m buying a half point here which brings the juice up to -125. Most books have not moved off the key number of 3.
PROP BETS: John Metchie III over 24.5 receiving yards (-110 DK). The Chargers rank 30th in DVOA against WR2’s. By default, Metchie has been playing WR2 for Houston.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS +9.5 at BALTIMORE RAVENS
We’re back to our regularly scheduled program. I’m backing a team the public has totally dismissed in the Pittsburgh Steelers. We’ve talked prior about how good of an underdog Mike Tomlin is. In fact, he’s the second-best coach ATS (active) as an underdog hitting at a 64% rate with a 62-35-3 record. And if we follow this rivalry close enough, we know these games are always tight as nine of the last ten have been one score games (the last game is the only one that wasn’t but a Russel Wilson fumble at goal line was likely the reason why).
Then there’s the Lamar in the playoffs factor as the Ravens QB is just 2-4 in the playoffs. This includes a 1-3 record at home. None of those games were with the sledgehammer he has in the backfield this year in Derrick Henry. But there’s still a little playoff uncertainty from the two-time NFL MVP.
In the end, this is a divisional game that is between two hated rivals. No rah-rah speeches are needed and they have enough motivation just seeing the other teams jersey to be ready for this one. There is split action at the windows, with 49% of the money on Pittsburgh and 51% on Baltimore. There are some major trends that do point to Baltimore (home favorites of 9+ in Wild Card Round are 10-1 ATS in last 20 years) but I’m sticking with my intuition here and banking on the Steelers to have enough offense to make this one scary for the Ravens.
PROP BETS: George Pickens over 56.5 yards (-110 DK). The Ravens allow the most yards to WR1 on the season. And it’s by a wide margin. Pickens has been trash but he’s also into the trash talk. Look for the Steelers to get him going early and let the talking fuel his game. Pittsburgh’s only chance to win is to get Pickens involved early and often.
BUFFALO BILLS -9 vs DENVER BRONCOS
This game is very intriguing on many levels. First off, I saw a pre-draft interview recently where HC Sean Payton said Bo Nix had similar qualities to the person he’s opposing today, Josh Allen. It was high praise considering Josh Allen is one of the best players in the NFL. But Nix hasn’t disappointed his coach’s claims as he had a stellar rookie season throwing for over 3700 yards and registering 29 passing TD’s to just 12 interceptions. And the last number is the key as he threw 9 of those 12 INT’s in just four games. And ever since he started to get acclimated to the league, Denver has been on a tear as they’ve won five of their last seven games. The only two losses were in OT to the Bengals and by one score to the Chargers.
The Bills on the other hand have absorbed playoff failure time and time again. Under Josh Allen, the Bills are 5-5 in the playoffs. And it hasn’t been his fault, necessarily, on why they find ways to lose. Allen has a 21 to 4 touchdown to interception ratio in the playoffs. But it’s always something with Sean McDermott’s team. Last season was setup perfectly for them, bringing the Chiefs to Buffalo in the Divisional Round. However, they still found a way to lose. Fitting the narrative that the weight of the playoffs often consumes this team.
My biggest concern this year is the lack of weapons at Allen’s disposal. However, the good news is the Broncos can be exposed in the passing game without using the WR’s. Denver allows the 5th most receiving yards to RB’s and the 2nd most receiving TD’s. And DVOA has them as the 31st ranked pass D against backs. So watchout for a big game from James Cook. I also think this is a good spot for Allen. Denver thrives on creating pressure at the line and he’s one of the best at alluding it.
Additionally, the way to attack Buffalo is on the ground as the air as they rank 28th versus WR1 and 29th versus WR2 according to DVOA. But I just can’t trust a rookie QB enough to put my money behind them in a game where he will be relied on to make big plays. Denver will keep it close for a while but Buffalo pulls away late and covers the number.
PROP BETS: James Cook over 1.5 receptions (-110 DK). The Broncos are so good against the pass on the perimeter that you have to check down to your outlets. Plus they love to send pressure, sending the blitz 29.5% (7th in league), that we could see two RB packages that allow one of them to get free in coverage.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES –5 vs GREEN BAY PACKERS
First off, this may come with some bias. So tread carefully and tail if you believe what I’m saying. But if you’ve followed me this year, I’m very reluctant to bet on the Birds. And when I do, I’ve been on the right side.
To me, the difference in this game is the Eagles defense. They are the #1 ranked unit as far as yards per game and the second-best team in points per game. The Packers are without their one receiver that can stretch defenses, as Christian Watson is out with an injured knee. This will allow the Eagles to stack the box and try to control the Packers running game. Which is the strength of this team.
We’ve also know the Packers are just 1-5 against NFC playoff teams with their lone win against the Rams. And now they’re dealing with a potential injury to their best defender (outside of Xavier McKinney) in Quay Walker. While Green Bay was the surprise team last year, I don’t see them having enough bullets in the chamber to threaten the Eagles D.
PROP BETS: Saquon Barkley over 20.5 rushing attempts (-110 DK). Jalen Hurts is returning from a concussion so I expect most of the RPO’s to go to Barkley. The other thing is, I see the Eagles having a lead and trying to bleed the clock by running Saquon.
TAMPA BAY BUCS -3 vs WASHINGTON COMMANDERS
We have another matchup of teams that met way back in Week 1. Whatever we can glean from that game, is likely moot for this one. Both teams are much different then they were in September. Jayden Daniels ended up with the 4th best QBR in the NFL. But his WBR of 35.7 in Week 1 was his 3rd worst total of the season. His progress is a huge reason why Washington is seeded 6th and finished with 12 wins. As for Tampa, they look different than what they were in September mainly because of their offensive adjustments. After losing Chris Godwin, this team went into young mode and focused on growing their young WR corps, like Jalen McMillan, and shifting their primary RB from Rachaad White to rookie Bucky Irving.
The reason why I lean towards the home team is because of Todd Bowles ability to confuse and frustrate QB’s. He has made a living on that and will try to show young Jayden Daniels a litany of looks he hasn’t yet seen. And Washington thrived against lesser competition but was just 1-4 against playoff teams, including 0-3 on the road.
PROP BETS: Bucky Irving over 88.5 rushing yards (-110 DK). Washington was 26th in run defense DVOA. And they allowed the 3rd most rushing yards per game. If they decide to stack the box, Baker will shred them. I think they play an aggressive D that tries to create havoc and will leave holes for big plays with Irving.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS -2.5 at LA RAMS
I’m riding on the Vikings in this one as they were the better team all season. The Lions exposed QB Sam Darnold last week as he played his worst game of the season while facing intense pressure all evening. But the throws that he missed can be coached up. And the Vikings were in the game until midway through the 3rd quarter. While I do think Minnesota is slightly overrated, they are a better offensive team and defensive team than the Rams.
DEFENSE:
Minnesota: 5th in ppg (19.5),16th in yards per game (335.4), 2nd in DVOA
LA Rams: 17th in ppg (22.7), 26th in yards per game (353.1), 26th in DVOA
OFFENSE:
Minnesota: 9th in ppg (25.6), 12th in yards per game (349.4), 15th in DVOA
LA Rams: 20th in ppg (21.6), 15th in yards per game (331.4), 10th in DVOA
In all those stats, the Rams only have an edge in offensive DVOA, and it’s by the slightest of margins. While Stafford is the better QB, the Vikings are the overall better team and I see them playing inspired ball following their tough loss in Detroit and advancing to the Divisional Round with a win in LA, or Arizona against LA.
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