Dave Gloeckner 
The best weekend of football is here as we have the eight remaining teams left in the NFL Playoffs. The stories are endless as we have just two QB’s who have won a Super Bowl. But of the remaining six, there are MVP’s, ROY’s and loads of talent. Which shows each team has a chance to get to New Orleans and take claim to the throne as the NFL’s best team. The Wild Card Weekend was a roller coaster for us. The game bets went 2-4 but the prop bets went 4-2. The only reason I ended up on the plus side was due to a 5x bet on the Eagles. Some tailgate waters helped fuel that bravado. But we do need a better showing in the game bets this week to push us onto the plus side of the equation.
I’m breaking down the games as they’re played this weekend, in chronological order. Along with each game bet, I’ll also provide a few props that I’ll be looking at as well.
NFL BETS DIVISIONAL ROUND WEEKEND (2025 PLAYOFF RECORD: 2-4 game bets / 4-2 prop bets)
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -8.5 vs HOUSTON TEXANS (4:30 PM EST, SATURDAY)
The numbers are astounding for the Chiefs during the Divisional Round in the Patrick Mahomes era. They are 6-0 in this weekend’s games under their star QB. Mahomes has averaged over 300 yards per game and thrown for 16 TD’s to 0 INT’s in this round. And they are looking for their 7th straight trip to the conference championship which trails just the Patriots who went to eight straight during the 2011-2018 stretch. On the other side, Houston is 0-5 in Divisional Round games as they have never advanced to a Championship game. Additionally, they are 0-5 on the road in the playoffs. Both marks make them standalone as they are the only team to never make a Championship game and never win a road playoff game.
And while I like to fade the public and zag when others zig, I saw how the Chiefs finished the regular season and know what type of animal they are in the playoffs. It’s almost like they slow-played their hand for 14 weeks and then started ramping up for the real season. Throwing out the Week 18 game when they rested the starters, the Chiefs ended the regular season 3-0 and covering all three of those games against the spread. They won those games by a collective score of 77 to 36.
And then there’s the Texans. I can’t erase the sights of CJ Stroud trying to throw the game away against LA only to see his defense bail them out. Houston won because they kept LA out of the endzone early (when the game was on the hinges) and then made them one-dimensional which created the turnover opportunities. They won’t get four INT’s today and they likely won’t get a defensive touchdown. For them to win, CJ Stroud will have to be great. And I’m just not sure he can be great enough to do that. The Texans were ranked 26th in offensive DVOA and was the second lowest scoring team of any playoff team at 21.9 ppg.
PROP BETS:
Nico Collins over 80.5 receiving yards (-110 DK). This is a big number. But if you believe in my game script, the Texans will be down early and often. Setting up lots of throwing opportunities for Stroud to Collins. KC is 26th in DVOA against #1 WR’s and are top 12 against all other pass catchers.
Xavier Worthy over 4.5 rushing yards (-110 DK). In Worthy’s last three games, he’s ran for 50 yards on 8 carries. He’s had multiple carries in all three of those games. At this line, we likely just need one carry to get this number. But if we get two, he’s going well over this line. In the first matchup, Houston played 40% Cover 1. Something close to that will give HC Andy Reid the looks he likes to setup a jet sweep and block the outside zone coverage.
WASHINGTON COMMANDERS +9 at DETROIT LIONS
I love the Lions and still project them to be the NFC Champions this year. But this Washington Commanders team is playing with house money while Detroit has the most amount of pressure they’ve ever had. That, in and of itself, is a daunting task for a team that’s not used to playing the favorites role.
And that’s really part of this story. The Commanders played aggressive last weekend. Like they had nothing to lose. HC Dan Quinn went for it on 4th down on five occasions, converting three of those. And based on his aggression, the Commanders never punted last week. They either scored, or turned it over on downs, in their seven possessions. I expect more of the same from Quinn this week as he knows he has to score points to keep up with Detroit.
For the Lions, they welcome back David Montgomery which is a great sign. He is one of the leaders on their team and will surely give them a boost. But before last season, the Lions had not won a playoff game since 1991. In fact, they have just three playoff wins in franchise history in the modern Super Bowl era. While that’s not saying they can’t win today, it just highlights the extreme pressure this team has as it is the best one in franchise history.
I expect the Commanders to hang around long enough to give the Lions a scare. Tampa did so last year in this round as they were tied with Detroit heading into the 4th quarter.
PROP BETS:
Brian Robinson over 1.5 receptions (-110 DK). The Commanders RB’s had 7 receptions last week against Tampa. And Robinson led the way with four. However, this week, Austin Ekeler has a reception prop of double Robinson’s. I’ll take the back that sees the field more to get over his reception prop. Detroit is 29th in the league in DVOA against RB’s in the passing game. If they decide to play the blitz heavy defense they did against Minnesota, Daniels will look for the quick check downs and not fall to the fate that Sam Darnold did.
Jameson Williams over 55.5 yards (-110 DK). The Lions can attack the Commanders defense any way they want. That’s primarily because of all the weapons at Detroit’s disposal. But it’s also because Washington is not very good defensively, ranking 23rd in defensive DVOA. With Lattimore back, I expect the Lions to exploit CB Mike Sainristill who allows 11.8 yards per catch (91st among DB’s) and has 13 missed tackles (ranked 205th among DB’s).
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES -6 vs LA RAMS
The Eagles were significantly better than the Rams in their first outing in LA. Philadelphia won that game by a score of 37-20. They dominated the game offensively and defensively. And despite what you saw from LA last week, they are not that much different than the first outing. The defensive pressure has improved but at the sake of the offense, which scored 20 or less in three of it’s last four games.
Then there’s the eye test. LA looked great against Minnesota. But we just saw the team that allowed just 9 points to the Vikings get completely throttled by the Commanders on Saturday. Yes, the Vikings were absolute frauds. While the Rams dominated the Vikings, that game showed more about Minnesota than it did LA.
The Eagles are better in every phase. Barring a crazy weather game or uncommon turnovers, the Eagles should dominate this game upfront which is where playoff games are won. While the weather is calling for snow, that should actually favor Philly as the offensive line should be able to plow over the smaller Rams defensive front opening up big holes for #26.
PROP BETS: TBD
BUFFALO BILLS +1.5 vs BALTIMORE RAVENS
This is the hardest game of the weekend to handicap. These are two of the top teams in the NFL, and one will have to plan for Cancun weeks ahead of their preferred time. According to DVOA, these are the top 2 offenses in the NFL with Baltimore having a slight edge. Defensively, both teams rank in the top 11. Looking at the standings, both teams finished with a +157 point differential, which was the highest in the AFC and 3rd most in the NFL.
But in this matchup of even teams, I’m riding with the home boys in the Buffalo Bills. The Bills have a few things that I believe are motivational edges. First, they were embarrassed by the Ravens in prime time back in Week 4 losing by 25 points. Derrick Henry ran wild, accumulating 199 rushing yards on just 24 carries. But one thing to note is the Bills were without three starting defensive players in that game. Then there’s the weather factor as there will be snow, and it will be cold. The forecast is calling for single digit temperatures which Buffalo is well equipped for. The last playoff game that Baltimore played in Buffalo was also cold, and the Ravens scored just 3 points as they couldn’t adjust to the frigidness of western NY.
I also factor in Buffalo is 9-0 at home this year, with only 3 of those games being one score affairs. This team is built for this weather and they embrace their home field advantage. Lastly, the Ravens look like they will be without WR Zay Flowers. The lack of Flowers speed can allow Buffalo to creep the safeties up and help scheme against the powerful Ravens running game.
Baltimore is a great team but I’ve seen a few scattered results from them where they get away from who they are. I can easily see them winning but also realize they have some skeletons in their playoff closet too which could come creeping out again today.
PROP BETS: TBD
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