Dave Gloeckner 
The four best teams in the NFL remain, and only two will survive after today’s games in the Conference Championship round. We’re coming off a heater, going 3-0-1 last week with game bets. The Commanders and Bills both came through as outright winners despite being underdogs. And the two finalists from 2023, the Eagles and Chiefs, came through as home favorites to potentially setup a rematch from a classic Super Bowl two years ago.
Looking at today we have been gifted with an inter-division matchup meaning teams will see each other for a 3rd time this season in Washington and Philadelphia. Out west, we get another classic matchup of Josh Allen versus Patrick Mahomes. Those two have met three times in the playoffs with the Chiefs winning each. But the Bills have gotten closer each time, losing by 14, by 6 and by 3 points last year.
I’m breaking down the games as they’re played this weekend in chronological order. Along with each game bet, I’ll also provide a few props that I’ll be looking at as well.
NFL BETS CHAMPIONSHIP ROUND WEEKEND (2025 PLAYOFF RECORD: 5-4-1 game bets / 6-4 prop bets)
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES -6 vs WASHINGTON COMMANDERS (3:00 PM EST)
I’ll start this by saying I am an Eagles fan. Which you probably all know by now. So I’m trying my best to pick with my head not my heart here.
With that being said, I respect the heck out of Washington (much like LA last week). They pose so many challenges especially at the QB position. Jayden Daniels is putting up the best rookie season for a QB that we’ve ever seen. And they’re on a heater right now, winning seven straight coming into today’s NFC Championship Game. On defense, while the Commanders rank 23rd in DVOA, they created five turnovers last week in Detroit. They are opportunistic and aggressive, often creating havoc in the backfield at the expense of coverage in the secondary. Dan Quinn knows he’s undersized and undermanned on the D-Line, but he has still found ways to create pressure and impact games defensively.
However, the Commanders magic must run out at some point. The only position on the field today that they can claim to be better is the QB. And while that’s the most important of all positions, football is a team sport. Jalen Hurts had a great week of practice, and his mobility looked good. As long as he’s a threat in the run game, Washington will have fits trying to stop this Eagles offense.
In their last meeting, the Eagles scored touchdowns on three of their first four drives. And several of those were with backup QB Kenny Pickett. It wasn’t until the Commanders stacked the box that they limited the Eagles running game and held them to four FG’s the rest of the way. Pickett wasn’t a threat to run or throw deep. Hurts is both of those. His health and ability to play his game is everything today for the Eagles offense.
Then there’s the fact that Washington is playing their 4th straight road games. Teams in this situation since 2000, with a fourth straight road game in the playoffs, are 0-7 SU and 1-5-1 ATS. Washington is also missing two key players in OL Sam Cosmi and DT Daron Payne. And I haven’t even mentioned the Eagles defense yet. They are ranked #1 overall and #2 in points allowed. This unit has not allowed more than 23 points in a game at home all season. And they allow just 16 points per game at the Linc.
If the Eagles can’t contain Daniels and Hurts can’t be a factor in the running game, then yes, the Commanders can and likely will pull this one out. But the talent advantage all over the field tells me those will be two very tall mountains to climb for Washington. The Eagles will wear down the Commanders and we’ll see Saquon break one late to seal the game. I think it’ll play much like their matchup back in Week 11 when the Eagles won 26-18. The Commanders had the lead in that game heading into the 4th Q. But the Eagles physicality broke through as they recorded three rushing TD’s in the final frame enroute to the victory.
PROP BETS:
TBD
TBD
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -1.5 vs BUFFALO BILLS (6:30 PM EST)
This game should be fantastic similar to last week’s great battle between Buffalo and Baltimore. There are so many storylines including the Chiefs quest to three-peat and the Bills trying to reach the Super Bowl for the first time in 31 years.
The Chiefs are 16-2 but have shown some vulnerability all season, winning an unprecedented 11 one-score games. In fact, Kansas City was 11-0 in games decided by 8 points or less. The mastery of Mahomes and Reid factored into that mark, but so did some luck like having Isaiah Likely’s toe just step out of bounds or seeing a chip shot FG by Denver get blocked as time expired. The fact is, this team knows how to win. And that’s even more so true in Kansas City where they are 10-0 this season.
The Bills on the other hand are the only team to beat Mahomes this season as the Chiefs only other loss came in Week 18 with Carson Wentz under center. Josh Allen is 4-4 in his career against the Chiefs and has had success in all those starts. The problem is he’s 0-3 in the playoffs, including 0-2 in Arrowhead.
As much as I think the Bills have the recipe and formula to beat the Chiefs. I tend to ask myself, and everyone else this. Who do you think wins if this is a close game? We’ve already laid out the remarkable number the Chiefs have in those situations. The Bills are just 5-3 in one-score games this year. It would take a significant call or some stroke of luck for the Bills to win this one. Which is something we can root for but I can’t let my wallet bet on. Until someone proves they can do it, I’m backing the Chiefs to march onto New Orleans for the Super Bowl.
PROP BETS:
TBD
TBD
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